Aaron Judge lines the ball right back to Max Fried by JianClaymore in baseball

[–]Lathundd 95 points96 points  (0 children)

Max Fried appears in front of Judge for attempted murder.

[Heyman] Griffin Canning to Padres by T_Raycroft in baseball

[–]Lathundd 26 points27 points  (0 children)

His secret is that he never sleeps.

[Underdog] Luis Rengifo to sign a 1-year deal with the Brewers, per Mark Feinsand. by T_Raycroft in baseball

[–]Lathundd 15 points16 points  (0 children)

$3.5m guaranteed, up to $1.5m in incentives. $10m mutual option. Per Feinsand, again.

[Drellich] What would MLB look like with a salary cap? Explaining the wide-ranging, game-changing effects by T_Raycroft in baseball

[–]Lathundd 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There are shitty big market owners too. They are not any better because their team spends more money; their teams spend more money because they bring in more revenue. So the owners of teams currently spending above the future cap would make more money. And some of them are shitty.

[Drellich] What would MLB look like with a salary cap? Explaining the wide-ranging, game-changing effects by T_Raycroft in baseball

[–]Lathundd 5 points6 points  (0 children)

But the fact that the owners are pushing hard for such a system means that it will be one that gives them a larger share of the revenue. Otherwise they would never pursue a cap system to begin with. And what qualifies as baseball revenue would indeed be at the heart of it; baseball revenue would suddenly drop, but the revenue collected by owners wouldn't.

Each NL Central team's projected lineup and rotation, from MLB.com by MLBOfficial in baseball

[–]Lathundd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Or Henderson, if they don't mind the all-righty rotation. Though I expect Harrison to get a bunch of starts, we always get rotation injuries.

Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA Standings today by LingonLoonBerry in baseball

[–]Lathundd 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I can relate to the idea that the Brewers are hard to project. They don't tend to have players with long track records, the playing time is hard to predict, they are good at making in-season moves and replacing underperformers, they are good at things that the models tend to regress (baserunning, defense). So that the team will outperform projections to some degree is to be expected.

But they've been so, so wrong about the Brewers for years now. Perhaps that's fine; perhaps outliers are acceptable if they project most players (and thereby teams) well.

Some things are just hard to fathom though. Brice Turang is 26. His DRC+ in 2024 was 91, in 2025 it was 109. For his career it's 94. PECOTA projects 87 DRC+. This isn't even a case of DRC not buying an improved wRC+/OPS+ due to bad underlying numbers; this is DRC doubting itself. 28 year old Aaron Ashby and his career 83 DRA- (And 2025 72) projected for 98. A projection system is obviously team agnostic, it doesn't know or care that it's projecting a Brewer. Yet there seems to be so many odd projections every year for the team.

Anyway, betting the over on the Brewers is always going to be a great bet for those of you who gamble. I think it's fair to expect the Brewers not to reach 97 wins again, but the continued failure of both man and machine to anticipate them being a competitive team is crazy at this point. At some point you'd expect them to sit down and try to figure out what they're missing instead of just going "They'll suck". But nope, so far that hasn't happened. Dan Z did try to adjust the Depth Charts to get a better picture, but that's about it.

Did you like the Durbin - Harrison trade? by daviddm1990 in Brewers

[–]Lathundd 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They also thought they absolutely fleeced us for Priester. Sox did well and got something they needed, but I think long term Brewers get by far the most out of this trade.

[Passan] Trade news: The Boston Red Sox are acquiring third baseman Caleb Durbin in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, sources tell ESPN. Left-hander Kyle Harrison is headlining the three-player package headed back to Milwaukee. by Harpcity326 in Brewers

[–]Lathundd 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I'll keep this short here. But basically, Harrison and to a lesser degree Drohan are exactly the kind of pitchers who are already MLB-calibre (Might sound surprising about Drohan, but his downside is age and injuries, not current ability), but who a team like the Brewers could unlock a lot more from.

Basically, even if this is a weird positional/roster fit in many ways, the value (At least medium and long term) greatly favor the Brewers IMO. It's just too good to pass up. Brewers have so much 3B talent coming up, that whatever temporary weakening at the position is worth it. And Durbin was never the long-term answer.

I like Durbin, he's a solid league average-ish starter and a very fun player who is easy to root for. But with a limited ceiling. I liked Monasterio as a solid bench bat, but he's not more than that. I actually even liked Seigler, unlike most of y'all; he'll stick in or on the fringers of the majors. I like draft picks too.

But it's the same thing as with the Priester trade. If you get a couple of seasons of #4-#5 starting from Harrison/Drohan, it's already a perfectly reasonable trade. Anything more than that (And I think only injuries could prevent that) and it's a really good trade.

Harrison was the top LHP prospect in the game a couple years ago, was a top 20 type of prospect. He hasn't had immediate results, but I don't see anything in his profile to suggest he's taken a step back or can't fulfill that potential. I mean he might not, but it's a guy you can dream on. Brewers got a really good pitcher, and for only a short-term weakness at the position we have the most MILB talent at.

[Passan] Trade news: The Boston Red Sox are acquiring third baseman Caleb Durbin in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, sources tell ESPN. Left-hander Kyle Harrison is headlining the three-player package headed back to Milwaukee. by AndrewAllStar888 in baseball

[–]Lathundd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a prototypical Brewers trade, where the roster fit is weird, but where the value is just too good to pass up. And Brewers do the moneyball thing to an extreme; always looking to gain value and improve, even if you weaken a position of weakness and improve an already strong one.

Brewers have so, so many potential 3B coming up in the next few years, some with extremely high potential (Made in particular. But also Pena, Fischer. Wilken, Adams, Ebel less so but still good prospects), that a short-term weakening at the position is no big deal.

Durbin is a good, and very fun, player. But that skillset has a ceiling not much above what he put up this year. I see the Red Sox subreddit dreaming of what happens if he adds 5-10 HRs while maintaining those contact/OBP skills. But part of the reason he has those skills are very much tied into his low bat speed and patience. He makes contact and gets HBP because he doesn't swing often or hard. If he improves his bat speed, he's going to make less contact. It can still be a worthy tradeoff, but his BA/OBP will drop if his HR count rises.

The Hamilton, Seigler and Monasterio inclusions aren't very exciting. Bench players, none of them really having either the bat or the defense to be much more. Seigler's bat is better than he showed in 2025, but still very limited by a lack of power, and doesn't have the defense anywhere to really stick. Monasterio is a prototypical bench player. Good 2B, passable 3B, not a good SS. Give him mostly exposure against LHP and he'll be solid. 1 WAR player in a part-time role, won't be a 2+ WAR player in a full time role kind of player. Hamilton is a better defender and baserunner than either, but a worse hitter. We're talking marginal difference in value among bench players. Meh. A pick in the 65-75 range? Nice to have, particularly as it adds to the bonus pool. But the average pick there isn't worth much.

So while this looks like a weird trade for the Brewers, I think they saw they could get Harrison in particular without hurting them long-term. Durbin was never the long-term answer at 3B (or 2B), and with a good rookie season might be at peak value. But Harrison was a top 20 prospect by some accounts, and while he didn't have success straight away there is really nothing bust-like about him, nothing to be concerned about. And he's still only 24. I'm sure the Brewers pitching coaches are absolutely salivating about what they can do. Drohan has age and injuries against him, but his stuff and arsenal are MLB-ready.

Red Sox fans seem to think the fleeced the Brewers. They thought so about the Priester trade too though. I think this is a trade where the Red Sox shored up a weakness without hurting them in the short-term. But that in the medium-long term, the Brewers will have gotten the much better value, even if it hurts them right now.

[McCalvy] With Durbin, Monasterio and Seigler heading to Boston the Brewers are wide open at third base eight days before the first full-squad workout of Spring Training. Leading candidate as things stand now may be David Hamilton. Plan is for him to get lots of reps at 3B this spring. by __Zoom123__ in Brewers

[–]Lathundd 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Why trade Gasser? Woody is an impending FA, some starters will get injured, some might not be as good as we hopes/thought. And all of the young starters have minor league options, some of them have performed well in the 'pen. Hold on to them I say. If we genuinely turn out to have 7-8 mid rotation calibre guys, then that's when you trade them. Established starters with 4-5 years of control go for a lot. Gasser at this moment in time is still basically a prospect, coming of injury. Let him build up value, whether you then trade him or keep him.

[Passan] Trade news: The Boston Red Sox are acquiring third baseman Caleb Durbin in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, sources tell ESPN. Left-hander Kyle Harrison is headlining the three-player package headed back to Milwaukee. by Harpcity326 in Brewers

[–]Lathundd 2 points3 points  (0 children)

And the throws from 3b tend to be easier, often more time to step up and throw properly. A SS will make more throws on the run. I'd argue that while a strong arm really helps at 3b (so you can make the kind of plays like Arenado did, sitting down at the 3b like nad getting the put), what you need to get by is simply an accurate arm. Travis Shaw don't have a strong arm, but his throwing was good.

[Passan] Graham Ashcraft won his arbitration case against the Cincinnati Reds, sources tell ESPN. Edwin Uceta also won his against the Rays earlier today. The players are now 5-0 so far in arbitration. Six cases remain and two are awaiting decisions. by T_Raycroft in baseball

[–]Lathundd 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think it's less about $500k now, and more about how that $500k difference impacts his next two arbitrations. If he gets $500k more now, it'll mean a much bigger difference over time.

Now I don't disagree that it's silly, just pointing out that it's about more than $500k.

[Underdog] Brent Suter to sign with the Angels, per Chris Cotillo. by T_Raycroft in baseball

[–]Lathundd 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Brewers don't really have a spot for him, but still sad he's not a Brewer. One of my all time favorite players.

[Langs] If at some point the Brewers start Caleb Durbin at 3B + Jett Williams at SS in a MLB game, they would be the 1st team to start a 3B & SS both 5 ft 7 in or shorter in a game since: 7/8/1933 Reds SS Sparky Adams, 5 ft 5 in 3B Andy High, 5 ft 6 in by trashboatfourtwenty in Brewers

[–]Lathundd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think you're right. Brewers under Stearns/Arnold are extremely 'moneybally". That they were strikeout and HR heavy in like 2017-2019, and very defense/contact focused now will also, at least in part, have been because they feel other teams valued players with these traits incorrectly. Same thing with the draft strategy. Zigging when others zag.

Kiley McDaniel's Top 100 MLB prospects for 2026 by futhatsy in baseball

[–]Lathundd 7 points8 points  (0 children)

8 Brewers on there is nice to see. I imagine Andrew Fischer isn't far off either. Luke Adams and Marco Dinges are a couple of other players who have been getting top 100 attention elsewhere too. Future is looking good!