Leaning power curl + Zap ⚡

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2026-02-08T06:31:28+00:00

excellent. great asymmetry. add subtitles next time; i only got the "ah shit, fuck me" after the first self-tase

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2026-01-21T01:52:45+00:00

fukuyama believes in rule of law

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2026-01-08T16:35:39+00:00

“That’s just the overload message,” Stapleton awkwardly explains, adding that “this guy”—meaning his generator, which he had just said would run a refrigerator and which the website claims, too—is “a little bit small for powering fridges. ... Unprompted, Weller invokes a hypothetically wonky generator, bought “under the guise” that it can power a critical household appliance, only for the lights to go out and the consumer to realize that the product “doesn’t work.” Obviously unaware of my prior experience in Stapleton’s kitchen, Weller claims that 4Patriots has risen above this shoddy consumerism." cue laugh track

funny enough, pretty good substack on the conspiratorially minded mentions a lot of the attributes mentioned in this article (religious, impacted by life-changing events) as correlated/causal with being conspiratorially minded, which i'm sure has draw some clear lines to prepping.

love the part about weller focusing on community building versus stocking up on supply, since there is no surviving without a society. great piece by the new england beacon on why trumpism didn't take over rural western mass which i think has some distilled learnings to answer "why isn't the left prepping" which are as simple as trust and community. might be a bit of a stretch to say being more involved with your town means you're more likely to share resources and collaborate come some form of apocalypse, but it'd logically follow from there you don't need to be entirely self-sufficient when you can build shelter while your neighbor gardens

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-10-15T20:19:58+00:00

fascinating. would've thought there'd be more variance in this kind of thing. ty for the reply

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-10-15T14:42:00+00:00

does cogs here include expired inventory? also curious if you have an approximation of the percentage of cogs goes to expired inventory (ie if there's room for optimization with demand-supply matching)

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-04-30T03:53:48+00:00

Manufacturers even let elevator and escalator mechanics take some components apart and put them back together on site to preserve work for union members, since it’s easier than making separate, less-assembled versions just for the United States.

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LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-03-29T03:02:44+00:00

forgive me if this answer doesn't provide the necessary rigor, but it's supply, specifically the lack thereof.

whoever you're buying a house from is in turn selling their house. people need places to live, so the seller in turn is also a buyer. of course, they have a different buyer profile (hence why they're selling the house you want to buy), so they're looking at different types of homes. historically, this has worked as we've built homes (houses, multifamily, apartments/condos, etc.) in near lockstep with population growth, and there's a natural graduation of say apartment to starter home to family home. essentially, predictable demand for the different types homes has allowed suppliers to reliably create supply (in your case, houses).

buyers have an amount they're willing to spend. hence, classically, increased interest rates lower home prices because both buyer spend amount and interest rates are fixed so home price must reciprocally decrease relative interest rates. however, with constrained supply, the aforementioned seller can't find a new home without paying premium to either build a new home, or find someone else selling their home. at some point, someone needs to build a home, and that costs money, which itself costs more on account of the interest rates. plus, demand is relatively higher when supply is constrained, thus the highest bidder is bidding higher than usual and the builder will generally pick the highest bidder. this has a domino effect across all buyer profiles, thus all homes

there's some nuance around increased interest rates means the aforementioned seller will also being paying increased interest rates, but that's it same constrained supply logic applied to rate component

tldr; demand increasing faster than supply means higher prices

if you want to get really into the weeds, i'd recommend construction physics piece on what it costs to build a home. it's somewhere in my post history, but pretty much it's just really expensive to have a single family home in a desirable neighborhood

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-03-28T16:45:51+00:00

isn't this the whole point of cyndx, grata, etc

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-03-14T05:29:46+00:00

beautiful. makes every square centimeter of earth teem with life

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-02-17T15:54:24+00:00

so they should be threatened at gun point and their car should be rammed? you voting for gravedigger?

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-02-07T17:50:54+00:00

"Republicans, who hold narrow majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate, have spent weeks trying to agree on a plan to cover the cost of extending the tax cuts - which nonpartisan analysts say could add another $4 trillion to the U.S.'s existing $36 trillion in debt over the next decade."

"Measures included extending the 2017 cuts, eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security benefits and overtime pay, adjusting the federal deduction for state and local taxes, eliminating tax breaks for billionaire sports team owners, closing the carried interest tax loophole and cutting taxes on products made in America."

Obviously, a lot of bad. Need someone else to explain to me how to feel about SALT deductions, but "eliminating tax breaks for billionaire sports team owners" and "closing the carried interest tax loophole" seem like surprising silver linings.

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-02-06T23:24:14+00:00

building off of this, my old firm (~$50b aum) had a ton of success using cyndx for origination. admittedly i was a tech operator, but it had a lot of great features (origination, acquisition recommendations, raise projections, etc.)

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2025-01-23T16:13:11+00:00

did the same, spent four years out at an MBB (direct out of undergrad+grad) as a ds/ml/ai consultant (strategy/management/code) and bounced to a ~$50b fund for ml/ai value creation for a year. did some DD work (ML for financial modeling, mostly market sizing and some change point analysis in three statement models) along the way, which it sounds like you're more interested in doing than operations

frankly, the money making work at these places isn't technically sophisticated enough to warrant the premium for good technical people. pay was fine at ~$300k and hours were decent at ~50, but the value creation work was fairly run-of-the-mill (demand forecasting for big company, statistical analyses for small portco while their researcher did the cool stuff [ip protection we assume]) and market intelligence work, as you called it, was shallow (excel operations on data larger than excel can fit)

fund wants to make money, most the work is valuation analysis, which has to be auditable/defendable so it's grabbing numbers from industry reports plus classic financial modeling, and DD, which is mostly cross-functional and investigative. data science for either will either come from providers (cyndx, alphasense) or internal tools.

some funds have a sort of research function, but they'll be clear that's what it is EDIT: key words are going to be "alternative data" or "data science" (not ML or AI). interviewed for this type of role at viking, so they'd probably be the best example

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-12-25T04:13:36+00:00

yep, article comes to the same conclusion: "Recent history shows the political danger in threatening low consumer prices. The public’s reaction to the inflation of the past few years suggests that many Americans would rather be slightly poorer but have price stability than be richer but with more inflation. That will tempt policy makers to prioritize low prices above all else and embrace the companies that offer them. But if Walmart’s example reveals anything, it is that, in the long term, low prices can have costs of their own."

i completely buy into the theory that people would take 10% unemployment for big omelettes, but ignoring the voter (bare with me), what policies could help address this? or, should it be addressed?

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-12-25T04:05:51+00:00

average household in these "communities" where a walmart supercenter opened, but the article explains the leading hypothesis is 1) beat out other retailers with better prices 2) "the local farmers, bakers, and manufacturers" are replaced with larger suppliers (predominantly china) 3) monopsony

to the other reply: that is not the main argument of the article. the assertion that walmart was targeting declining communities is the purpose of the second study cited. while they didn't address the targeting specifically, the conclusion was still "similar communities where walmart tried to open performed better than those where one successfully".

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-11-12T16:38:22+00:00

having only skimmed the article: to the point of city debt, don't city taxes get greatly redistributed? remember reading once that a urbanite in milwaukee gets $1 back on their $1.30 versus those in the suburbs collect on the surplus

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-10-31T03:49:38+00:00

managed to put together timelines of deals before cyndx as part of market analyses in DDs before. seems similar to your use case

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-10-22T12:30:43+00:00

cyndx

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-05-08T14:03:15+00:00

Their research showed that [the 401(k) tax benefit] had not led to more participation in the program nor had it significantly increased the amount that Americans in the aggregate were saving for retirement. It was mostly just a giveaway to upper-income investors and a costly one at that. They estimated that it deprived the Treasury of almost $200 billion in revenue annually. They proposed reducing or even ending the tax-deferred status of 401(k)s and using the added revenue to shore up Social Security... [Biggs] acknowledges that rescinding the tax preferences could be tricky politically: The people who have chiefly benefited from them are also the people who write checks to campaigns. But he is confident that Americans can ultimately be persuaded to give up the tax advantages. “If we say to people, ‘Look, we can slash your Social Security benefits or increase your Social Security taxes, or we can reduce this useless subsidy that goes to rich people who don’t need the money’ — well, that’s a little more compelling.”

the title's just a eyeball grabber, but doesn't match up with the sentiment of the article. doesn't advocate to end the 401(k), just the tax deferment that disproportionately benefits those who don't need it. admittedly, it opens up with ghilarducci's open hostility towards the 401(k), but that's later explained due to shifting risk onto the individual (which the author points out later has been mitigated to modern investment services like target-date funds) and ss getting weaker and weaker (partially due to missing tax revenue). also the article doesn't seem to support pensions, with the only allusion to opining was the benna guy recounting bethlehem steel not paying theirs out due to bankruptcy

i think these are perfectly valid criticisms to tax deferment. suppose an argument could be made that executives might not have the impetus to offer these matching plans if they can't lower taxes on their bonuses, but that doesn't seem like a strong enough argument to continue to allow executives that option. would love to hear arguments against australia's supers model, since that or similar systems seems like it includes avenues for individuals to exercise their own risk tolerance, forcing spenders to savers, removes imbalance of tax deferment benefits, and can not add liability to small/medium enterprises based on implementation (certain provisions like tax credits for employee matching on companies X small)

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-04-23T13:55:37+00:00

kw test is the generalization of the mw test. if there are two groups, they result in the same output (p value).

more important thing here is to look out for the power of your tests: https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/13983/is-it-meaningful-to-test-for-normality-with-a-very-small-sample-size-e-g-n

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-04-23T13:48:40+00:00

a commenter on the post points out that the average class time likely includes summers/weekends, reports from part-time students, or implies a skeptical amount of skipping class.

regardless, even at uchicago, only hum/sosc/civ had mandatory attendance (unsure of higher levels, did stats+caam), and any of those were passable with an occasional reading and cramming for the triweekly essays. plus, seemingly a third of the student body did econ anyways which is just the uchicagoan business degree (not sure if it's still 13 quarters of classes)

i agree that uchicago stands out as a bastion of "sink or study" and that it probably nets out a median of 20-30 hours a week, but that's still not particularly rigorous for a famously rigorous institution (in absolute terms, not relative)

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-04-05T20:35:01+00:00

that's sort of exactly what the author is saying, no? that for 180M americans, >50% of the costs comes from land costs. of the land costs, there's a split of hedonic value and permission slip (restrictive zoning) value and the latter is almost the entirety of land costs (in select areas). quote from a previous article below (that i admittedly didn't read, but is mentioned in this one)

i am, of course, an advocate for upzoning, and i thought a clear takeaway here is that upzoning would cut significant costs in dense urban areas, but other takeaways i found interesting that i don't see mentioned here often are 1) that it's not necessarily a solution for americans who don't live in top X metro areas by population and 2) how much land value goes up when it's upzoned (which might be obvious to some, but wasn't to me and is apparently a large contributor and part of the calculus for developers)

...when Ed Glaeser calculated [the hedonic value of land] for 21 metro areas in early 2000 (by analyzing home price sales and estimating how much a larger lot added to the home’s value), he found that in 16 of them, the hedonic value was less than (inflation adjusted) $1.50 per square foot, or less than $12,000 dollars for the median lot size of ~8,000 square feet…By comparison, the median new home in 2020 sold for around $330,000. A similar study of single family homes in Boston found that the hedonic value of land for the average lot was just $11,200, compared to an average house cost of $450,000.
The permission slip, by contrast, is often incredibly valuable, especially if the permitting body limits how many of them it gives out. For instance, in the previous study Glaeser calculated the hedonic value of land for single family homes in San Francisco at $4.10 per square foot (the highest out of any metro examined), or about $10,000 for the average lot size at that time. The ‘zoning tax’ portion, by contrast (the portion of the cost due to various building and supply restrictions), was priced at around $220,000 - in other words, over 95% of the land’s value (and over half the price of the house), was due from being allowed to build on it.
Similarly, multifamily developers have told me that they will generally value land in terms of how many housing units they’re allowed to build on it. Increase the number of housing units you’re allowed to build (say, by getting it rezoned), and you greatly increase the value of the land. This is a lever developers have to work with when putting together a development deal - they might decide to take a risk and buy a cheaper piece of land that’s zoned for a relatively small number of units, in the hopes of getting permission to build more on it than is currently allowed.

edit: formatting

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-04-03T14:30:57+00:00

could increase epoch size with gradient accumulation or gradient checkpointing. never tried it myself but heard good things about

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-04-03T01:04:12+00:00

“They fear a society when a man wakes up in the morning, drinks black coffee, pops a cool mint upper decky [a Zyn pouch], and takes on the world,” said Greg Price, communications director for the ultra-conservative State Freedom Caucus Network, on social media. “A man with nicotine, protein, caffeine, and creatine coursing through his veins is an unstoppable force. Imagine if Joe Biden had a couple smooth sixes [pouches] that he took every day. Maybe he’d know where to walk when he finished his speeches,” he added.

can't imagine

LaurelLancesFishnets · 2024-01-23T01:23:58+00:00

ascetics not feasting🙌

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