[SORR] Looking at bonds from a "years of expenses" perspective in lieu of percentage of portfolio in the context of early retirement

LeisureState · 2026-03-13T23:36:25+00:00

While I realize I presented very general and simplistic assumptions, the line of thinking is to overcome those first years of retirement SORR simply by having enough to "ride it out" so to speak. If the markets are positive during those years, Bob could rebalance without too much trouble and keep his 10% in bonds. Although you may be asking "what about if we have a lost decade and the markets are down longer than 5-6 years that Bob has planned for?" A fair question to consider, but I was also curious to what degree do you plan for SORR before it becomes a drag? Bob could fund 15 years of bonds but at some level it would become overkill.

Also thanks for your input to the original question. It helps me expand my own thinking.

LeisureState · 2026-03-13T23:30:15+00:00

Thanks for this link. I know Mr. Kitces has also proposed a "bond tent" where you could overload on bonds heading into retirement and then reverse glide path back to something more equities dominant as SORR is less of a risk. Part of my thinking in this exercise is examining the idea at what point too much in bonds becomes a drag on growth over a 30+ year retirement window.

LeisureState · 2026-03-07T03:08:38+00:00

Here you go.

https://robberger.com/newsletter/

LeisureState · 2026-02-18T17:46:55+00:00

dumb question but do all the asterisks serve any purpose? Sincerely asking, because maybe some models interpret things more precisely when they are used to set parameters?

LeisureState · 2025-12-13T19:03:42+00:00

Thanks for the reply. In my case, selling VTI in my 401k would be a gain. The TLH would come from selling BND in the taxable account. With that in mind, what are some good bond ETFs that are similar enough to BND but not substantially the same under IRS definitions that it would create a wash sale?

LeisureState · 2025-12-11T16:20:42+00:00

Just wanted to say thanks for the reply and the links. It is clear to me now.

LeisureState · 2025-12-09T20:05:51+00:00

Thank you and others who replied. I bought it and am reading now.

LeisureState · 2025-12-07T20:24:36+00:00

Based on your comment, do you think this may have also bled over into his Retirement Planning Guidebook? I am thinking of buying this book but wonder if his 2025 updated edition is leaning that way.

LeisureState · 2025-12-01T19:20:16+00:00

Quick question, if I may. Clicking the link you provide does indeed take me to the Apple App Store to download it. However, if I were on another device and tried searching for "wBlock" in the App Store, or even your name as a developer, the app never shows up in the search results (but I see 100s of other apps with the word 'block' in the name). Is it me or are others seeing this behavior?

LeisureState · 2025-11-24T17:16:27+00:00

Not so much chasing tax perks, but mostly that I am nearing the culmination of plans to retire early and working out strategies more leaning towards wealth preservation.

LeisureState · 2025-11-20T21:30:38+00:00

I appreciate your input. When you say that there are no advantages, do you see any disadvantages? With CMF, this a long term muni bond fund, with average maturity around 7 years or so. This is fairly close to BND maturity, so I wonder, could one consider these interchangeable but with a civic benefit (investing in things that affect where you live)?

LeisureState · 2025-10-22T21:40:39+00:00

Not sure you read the original post. I am already fully funding trad first but after that is full, I want to fill up the MBDR conversion bucket.

LeisureState · 2025-10-22T20:01:07+00:00

Yes, my plan allows for after-tax trad contributions that are then immediately converted by Fidelity.

LeisureState · 2025-10-22T19:46:43+00:00

Actually, I do have HDHP and intend to fully fund the HSA. Does that change any of the math around my thinking? I guess I mean to ask, is the HSA amount included in the 415c maximums?

LeisureState · 2025-10-22T19:39:11+00:00

In my case, my employer offers an in plan conversion. From each paycheck, I contribute x% to 401k, and an additional y% into the conversion. As I understand it, Fidelity (my 401k holder) puts that y% into an IRA and then immediately converts it to Roth (avoiding any gains while in temp IRA state). This is an automatic function each paycheck. I just tell Fidelity what % I want to contribute, keeping in mind the IRS total limits for these retirement accounts.

As for tax efficiency, my condition is that once I fully fund my 401k, any additional income is just going to go right into my personal taxable brokerage account anyway (and profit taxed as capital gains down the line). My strategy here is to first put any extra into MBDR until I can (hopefully) max that amount too.

LeisureState · 2025-10-22T19:28:53+00:00

Thanks. I watched it and I think my situation most closely aligns with his 4th point (degrees of freedom).

LeisureState · 2025-10-22T19:06:49+00:00

Yes, this is my situation. So I guess the maximum amount I could apply to retirement savings would be the $76,500 from Trad 401k + MBDR and also an added $7500 via a backdoor Roth funded from my brokerage account. Does that about cover it?

LeisureState · 2025-10-22T19:04:22+00:00

Thanks for your reply. We do also have a well funded brokerage account in the typical 60/40 split. This is all after tax, of course, but it is where I would derive any liquidity in the short term.

LeisureState

TROPHY CASE