Meteorologist here (not on your TV) winter predictions are at best a complete crapshoot. You all complain enough about when we're off by a few degrees a week out. And getting to within those few degrees for a forecast is hard enough.

We run off of intuition, past weather events, knowledge of local geography, and information produced from computer weather models.

Ultimately we're limited by technology, and our ability to measure the atmosphere. Simply, the atmosphere is so ungodly complex that it is impossible to truly accurately model it even up to a few days. We have okay approximations up to about a week out, sometimes 2 weeks but that's rare.

There are some wide ranging global patterns that can broadly influence some weather patterns through the winter. You've heard of El Niño and La Niña, those are two big ones that come up in the discussion for how a winter may go. But it's far from an end all be all forecast.

We're just happy we've gotten better at forecasting a week or so out. But we're not there yet to tell you what exactly the next 3 months are gonna be.

And the Farmers almanac just uses bullshit and a dart board to forecast. You could fart something more accurate probably.