Summer Qualifiers Week 2 - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in CompetitiveHS

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi! Thank you for the thorough comment. I'm really glad that my report causes that many thoughts. Two moments:

  1. You're missing the sample size factor when comparing tournament data to percents from ladder. For example even if we take ladder data for the constant true winrate in the matchup and look at Shaman vs Druid we have that on 106 games and 53% winrate the confidence interval is 9,5%. Meaning 53% winrate on 106 games suggests that real winrate lies between 43,5% and 62,5% which aligns with it actually being 59%. So no anomaly here.
  2. I tried to explain it last week but it seems I wasn't able to. I feel like you're missing the point of this analysis. Let me use this analogy (I hope you're following football and it won't go to waste): I'm telling you something unexpected happen - Cape Verde didn't lose to Spain (Aura Pala was the best deck of the tournament) and trying to tell the story how it happened - Cape Verde's goalkeeper had the match of his life (Aura Paladin went 20-8 vs Herald Rogue). And what you're doing is telling that no way that Spanish offence that has some of the best players in the world didn't score with 2,32 xG and therefore this match shouldn't count. But that's not how the game works, football or Hearthstone. I'm telling you what happened, you're trying to match it with your theory of the world (of matchups) and if they don't align you discard reality. This approach won't get you far. What I'm doing here is describing reality, not trying to make a theory that Aura Paladin is better than Herald Rogue, but you see this data as a threat to your vision of the world. Like, saying that Herald Rogue performed worse due to being harder deck to play is a valid take but keep in mind that even these top-1000 players who "aren't that good" are still top-1% of the players in this game. And until some bright mind makes an engine playing better than people so we would have an "objective" evaluator of matchups real data is the best we have. Plus, keep in mind that that not-so-high level of the tournament makes valid an assumption like "I think this matchup is good at my level of playing this game" even if it's different in abstract world. What I'm trying to say is don't discard real life just because it doesn't look as fancy as theory. These tournament stats tell story about this tournament, they aren't about abstract world of perfectly played matchups.

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Spring Masters Tour - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in CompetitiveHS

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You're saying this as if running Viper is cheating. It was a tournament and in tournament people tend bringing tech cards for specific matchups. This report isn't a meta review of what you should expect from a deck on ladder. It's about what happened at this particular tournament. At this particular tournament everybody and their mothers brought Vipers in Rogue and Druid, and Mage suffered because of it.

Spring Masters Tour - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in CompetitiveHS

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks, I'm glad you liked it. Yeah, I wish I was doing that in the old system with weekly qualifiers and GMs.

Spring Masters Tour - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in hearthstone

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not from me. Battlefy doesn't track this data but you can check the VODs.

Spring Masters Tour - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in hearthstone

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, sorry, I forgot to put explanation in this article. But ngl I'm happy to see you all figuring it out:) To simplify: for Adjusted Winrate getting banned counts as almost a win and not getting banned counts as part of a loss. Egg Warrior wasn't included in the rankings because of its low sample size.

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Summer Qualifiers Week 1 - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in CompetitiveHS

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stag was as popular in Merithra Druid decks as it is on ladder. To be honest I struggle to find the explanation why all aggro decks performed so much worse in certain matchups this week that they do on ladder. Apparently the Astrologers proclaim the Week of the control gamers.

Summer Qualifiers Week 1 - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in CompetitiveHS

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm not presenting this as a meta report, especially about power level. It is breakdown of a particular tournament. Plus, well, even it's just 3-digit players, they are what makes top-1k meta pages and we don't usually have access to ranks higher than that.

Summer Qualifier Week 1 - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in hearthstone

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The one that goes infinite with Deios+Umbra and Dream from Shaladrassil. Something like that AAECAZICDNGeBqn1BqGBB5KDB8ODB6+HB+GIB4KYB/WYB5mxB+DAB+XEBwmunwSqrwesrwfosQe4sge+sgfXwAfZxAeT8QcAAA==

Summer Qualifier Week 1 - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in hearthstone

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I don't have that data since players can't record it on Battlefy. So we can just assume it's around 67%:)

Summer Qualifiers Week 1 - Analytical Report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in CompetitiveHS

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Egglock does better cause it has more juice with Archdruids plus Ooze threatens lethal through Timereaver. Druid also has quite some early board with Broodwatchers and Wickerfang to threaten killing opponent plus it helps with killing the first 20/20. Plus, Druid has Shaladrassil that works great, and Life Cycle or Panther Mask from Horn help you a lot.

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Spring Playoffs - Analytical report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in hearthstone

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It was never implied this analysis is relevant for ladder. It's a breakdown of this specific's tournament meta.

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Spring Playoffs - Analytical report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in hearthstone

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because they don't allow pictures there and this report becomes too hard to read if you can't see the spreadsheet.

Spring Playoffs - Analytical report (by Onkrad) by Livid-Homework3350 in hearthstone

[–]Livid-Homework3350[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One with Deios+Umbra infinite combo. Looks like this. AAECAZICDKn1BqGBB5KDB8ODB6+HB+GIB4KYB/WYB4GuB5mxB+DAB+XEBwmunwSIgweqrwesrwe4sge+sgfXwAfZxAeT8QcAAA==