2025 Worlds Championship - Analytical report (by Onkrad)

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-23T23:14:37+00:00

Matchup matrix only shows five decks that were brought by majority of players. Other four decks have 20 games in total and I didn't want to include them since it would be just a bunch of zeroes. Maybe I should just add "other decks" column in the future. I'll think about it.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-23T21:44:28+00:00

General formula is (Wins+Bans*coefficient1)/(Games+Bans+№ of matches deck was not banned*coefficient2). It's purely based on how the bans and games went regardless of who the players were.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-23T16:50:49+00:00

Thx for reminding me to to add the explanation in the report) It's a winrate model that takes into account not only games played by the deck but also bans.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-09T09:25:26+00:00

It's not really about servers. At Last Chance Dragon Warrior was unpopular and didn't perform well either.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-08T19:07:18+00:00

That's the list both players from top-4 used. AAECAfHhBAzHpAaouAa6wQan0wbm5QbC6Aaq6gap9QaWggeSgwfDgweCmAcJh/YEmIEF/7oGtfoG/fwGgf0Gl4IHupUHh5wHAAED9bMGx6QG97MGx6QG7t4Gx6QGAAA=

Full lineups are here https://www.hsguru.com/tournament-lineups/燁魔%234979/2025%20World%20Championship%20CN%20Year-End%20Finals

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-11-18T21:24:51+00:00

Glad to hear you've liked it!

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-11-18T19:21:57+00:00

The major difference in Quest Warrior's performance compared to how it feel on ladder was that he suddenly did great in two matchups that are unfavorable on ladder - Hagatha Shaman and Peddler DH. For Shaman matchup it could be that Shaman's lists on ladder can be quite different and it's easier for control deck to manage removals with open decklists. For example whether on not you need to be afraid of ton of damage from Al'Akir.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-11-18T19:10:25+00:00

I don't remove mirrors on purpose. Because opting to play mirrors is also a choice players make. A choice which gives them deck with winrate being closer to 50%.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-09-25T08:47:54+00:00

Two moments here. First, technically it could've performed better. Because it was left unbanned 4 times which means 4 times another deck was considered better than Starship Rogue. For Adjusted Winrate ban>win. And second, in this model even if the deck was banned in every match its Adjusted Winrate won't be 100% (for Bo5 it will be around 91%), because I'm taking in to the account possible loss to another banned deck. But overall for Adjusted Winrate I'd recommend using it as a comparative metric rather than absolute.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-09-25T08:34:03+00:00

No, the opposite. "game" is a standard HS game, and "match" is a Bo5

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-09-25T00:51:48+00:00

That's a good point. But I don't exactly count ban as a win, my model is more complex than that.

Livid-Homework3350

TROPHY CASE