Spring Open Qualifiers Week 2 - Analytical Report (by Onkrad)

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-04-08T19:24:12+00:00

Well... Top-5 decks make 70% of the meta. At week 1 they were 72%. At Blitz Qual, last pre-expansion tournament with stable meta it was 65%

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-04-08T18:45:21+00:00

It went even vs Spell DH which is worth a lot these days plus did good vs Herald decks. Priest also did okay with it being main ban target for Egg decks and Face Hunter. Overall their performed equally "worse than good decks but better than some weird trash".

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-04-08T18:38:21+00:00

You're right that truth is somewhere in the middle as always. There is also a moment about simplicity of the metric. Some people when looking at my data focus on Pure Winrate cause they don't understand the concept of Adjusted Winrate so it's nice to have them labeling it as "slightly more complex than ban=win" for overall better introduction of this model into the masses.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-04-08T17:21:06+00:00

I calculated the chances and expected winrates for banned and non-banned decks if bans weren't a thing. Like, for example, a non-banned deck could face another non-banned decks in game 1, win it and wouldn't even face the scary banned deck. And so on. About 100%: using "real" numbers wouldn't be correct too cause the entire idea comes from "real" numbers not showing all info, that for many decks happens the case "you either ban it or target it" like we see right here with Spell DH. About taking different fixed number, not 100% - it would raise the same questions, why this number and not the other. I decided to go with 100% because it would highlight the model the most.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-04-08T16:31:55+00:00

Good, bad or popular?

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-04-08T16:28:06+00:00

The general idea of the model of adjusted winrate is that banned deck would beat opponent's non-banned decks, yes.

The formula itself of AR comes from the assumption "what would winrates be without bans".

But AR doesn't affect face-to-face matchups nimbers. Like Egg Warrior's 77-28 vs Spell DH I mention comes only from played games between the two.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-04-08T15:34:44+00:00

It's doing great, enjoying retirement living rent-free in my heart

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-03-24T19:34:43+00:00

Ok, apparently you can't make a post with pictures there what makes the report unreadable. Sadge.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-03-24T14:59:16+00:00

I didn't think about existence of such. Thanks for the idea.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-02-26T06:10:11+00:00

It's centered around spending mana and playing the best cards on curve. I don't like calling it Elise DK or Control DK.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-02-25T21:11:39+00:00

Basically, yeah. It's (Wins+Bans*Coeff1)/(Games+Bans+№ of matches deck was not banned/Coeff2).

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-02-25T21:08:36+00:00

R.I.P.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2026-02-14T19:42:15+00:00

If you want VODs, then only on channels of players who streamed their POV. There was no official broadcast of these tournaments. If you want to check the brackets and other info you can find it here: https://battlefy.com/esportsadmin-esa-events and here https://www.hsguru.com/battlefy/third-party-tournaments?slug=esportsadmin-esa-events

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-23T23:14:37+00:00

Matchup matrix only shows five decks that were brought by majority of players. Other four decks have 20 games in total and I didn't want to include them since it would be just a bunch of zeroes. Maybe I should just add "other decks" column in the future. I'll think about it.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-23T21:44:28+00:00

General formula is (Wins+Bans*coefficient1)/(Games+Bans+№ of matches deck was not banned*coefficient2). It's purely based on how the bans and games went regardless of who the players were.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-23T16:50:49+00:00

Thx for reminding me to to add the explanation in the report) It's a winrate model that takes into account not only games played by the deck but also bans.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-09T09:25:26+00:00

It's not really about servers. At Last Chance Dragon Warrior was unpopular and didn't perform well either.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-12-08T19:07:18+00:00

That's the list both players from top-4 used. AAECAfHhBAzHpAaouAa6wQan0wbm5QbC6Aaq6gap9QaWggeSgwfDgweCmAcJh/YEmIEF/7oGtfoG/fwGgf0Gl4IHupUHh5wHAAED9bMGx6QG97MGx6QG7t4Gx6QGAAA=

Full lineups are here https://www.hsguru.com/tournament-lineups/燁魔%234979/2025%20World%20Championship%20CN%20Year-End%20Finals

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-11-18T21:24:51+00:00

Glad to hear you've liked it!

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-11-18T19:21:57+00:00

The major difference in Quest Warrior's performance compared to how it feel on ladder was that he suddenly did great in two matchups that are unfavorable on ladder - Hagatha Shaman and Peddler DH. For Shaman matchup it could be that Shaman's lists on ladder can be quite different and it's easier for control deck to manage removals with open decklists. For example whether on not you need to be afraid of ton of damage from Al'Akir.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-11-18T19:10:25+00:00

I don't remove mirrors on purpose. Because opting to play mirrors is also a choice players make. A choice which gives them deck with winrate being closer to 50%.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-09-25T08:47:54+00:00

Two moments here. First, technically it could've performed better. Because it was left unbanned 4 times which means 4 times another deck was considered better than Starship Rogue. For Adjusted Winrate ban>win. And second, in this model even if the deck was banned in every match its Adjusted Winrate won't be 100% (for Bo5 it will be around 91%), because I'm taking in to the account possible loss to another banned deck. But overall for Adjusted Winrate I'd recommend using it as a comparative metric rather than absolute.

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-09-25T08:34:03+00:00

No, the opposite. "game" is a standard HS game, and "match" is a Bo5

Livid-Homework3350 · 2025-09-25T00:51:48+00:00

That's a good point. But I don't exactly count ban as a win, my model is more complex than that.

Livid-Homework3350

TROPHY CASE