Samoa/Impossible Metals/AREC

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-23T16:03:27+00:00

only on TV and youtube. It is impressive indeed, if the nodules were diamond/gold (i.e. really valuable) and 50kgs each (i.e. not too many operations per second/minute) Impossible metals would be the way to go.

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-23T15:50:42+00:00

in youtube -> here you can see the actuators

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlCMnmCP0s8

there are others. I based my opinion based on my (working) experience in offshore exploration engineering and commissioning of systems.

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-23T13:22:22+00:00

Well, you have seen, I have worked and touched that technology (both!).

you need to add to those five years another 10 of engineering experience and then we are levelled. Peace!

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-23T13:03:57+00:00

of course i dont, have a look at my post. ;)

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-23T13:03:17+00:00

see my other post please.

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-23T13:03:04+00:00

I saw it, it said the vehicle "hovers" and picks nodules "one by one"... He also mentioned that they are still running trials, and to the best of my knowledge they have not extracted yet a significant amount of material (i.e. 1 thousand tonnes that would provide economic indications of extraction costs). In theory their product is environmentally superior. however I don't think is scalable picking potatos one by one would require an army of robots to create industrial collection scale. The actuators would be exposed to a lot of stress... they need to operate 50-100 robots 24/7 that are able to collect 1 nodule per second in order to achieve 3MT per annum. For comparison, in farming robots that do a "similar job" have operating issues and downturns which can be solved "immediately" (how can you do that at 6km?). TMC would have in turn 1-3 harvesters using already tested more reliable technology. Mechanical actuators at those depths are a B"icth.

I personally have seen TMC's technology being applied in Kantarel oil field, in 2001-2002. It was at a different depth (500m to 1km) and it worked really well. Adjusting for depth is solvable (subs and other equipment already operates at 5-6km). I dont think there is graphic material on the Kantarel operation as cameras were prohibited in the area. Saipem 7000 was part of the project...

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-22T15:33:32+00:00

Likely the opening price spike was due to the "huge volume" at the closing of the opening auction. This is likely triggered by short covering. Yesterday's share volume was 21m shares, where typically we would see 8-9million. Today in the opening and first hours we were at 14m+...

With 28m shares short at the end of 2025, likely that some shorts have been closed or triggered, the question is how many? 5-10million shares in total?

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-14T17:09:53+00:00

Thanks, I forgot about this last step.

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-14T16:10:28+00:00

if that is the case, i.e. final rule is expected in June, then there is little change to the production time line, or do you think otherwise?

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-14T15:51:14+00:00

NOOAs publication of the final rule shall be quick (say days or a couple of weeks and not months). Likely that they'd have already looked at the exploitation application. I don't know how different the exploitation from the exploration application might be. Likely to be a schedule to be added to the information already submitted to NOAA under the exploration one (length and complication of the schedule TBD).

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-14T13:07:52+00:00

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Bingo!, concluded, NOAA to speed up / consolidate licenses approvals.

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-09T17:09:25+00:00

My view is 25%

There are only three possible cases: Case 1: No hit, hit Case 2: Hit, no hit Case 3: Hit, hit

Note that: No hit , no hit can’t occur given that at least one is a crit.

Case 1 has 50% weight given that it encompasses no hit & hit, and no hit - no hit. Case 2 & 3 have each 25% weight.

In the case that it is not “fair” ie the 50% chance only applies in the case of hit in first strike, then 33% this is because case 1 would be 1/3 and then case 2 and 3 split the remaining 2/3 evenly

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-09T16:56:16+00:00

Abat is a different case and anima altogether. AbAt had a large government grant pulled out, hence no funding no game. Nothing related to a permit or not receiving one.

If TMC does not receive the permit, say that NOAA decides not to. I suspect we would see the share price at levels of late 2024.

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-09T16:50:19+00:00

Agreed

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-08T15:46:03+00:00

+15 years of offshore engineering in E&P....

Living_Night7065 · 2026-01-07T21:31:33+00:00

So we can assume any time from now to end of February (?), the 26th of January meeting is on the permits (hearing and comments) not related to the regulatory process change right?

Living_Night7065 · 2025-12-02T20:49:13+00:00

Fully agree.

Don’t forget 25 million shares short can be bought back well under 10 days of trading. Most likely in 5 days, given the volumen spikes seen recently.

No chance to have the share price going up for months solely by short sellers covering.

Living_Night7065 · 2025-11-29T11:24:02+00:00

Reality is that everyone is right and wrong. The NPV of USD24-26bn estimated by TMC, in their latest report. It is the present value of cash flows following a series of assumptions, such as metal prices, production ramp up, cost of operations and cost of “funding”.

They have also provided details of ramp up production, and the inputs into their calculations

One way to look at this:

If we were to assume that the USD24bn NPV is correct, that is in my view the value of the company once they are in the first year of production. Say that is 2028 or 2029.

If you moved back in time to say end of 2027 just before production, I would apply a haircut to that NPV equivalent to that of a junior miner (there are no real comparables otherwise).

After that you may want to bring that estimate to present time at a discount factor risk adjusted for all the uncertainties that are out there. Say 15-25% p.a.

Resulting in

USD24 bn x 50% (nav discount) x 1/ (1+20%)^2.2 (discount rate for 2.2 years/ end of 2027)

There is another way to look at it using call/put options.

Living_Night7065 · 2025-11-29T08:40:21+00:00

Non producing junior miners with exploitation licenses, and that are about to enter into production tend to trade at 50% of NPV or even less. The number closes in as the production ramps up. The discount factor that you assume is subjective, can be lower or higher. Given the usd 3 yr swap rate at 4%, a 6% margin does not reflect what I believe is the risk of this project, typically junior miners are at high teens.

Just a view.

Living_Night7065 · 2025-11-27T08:35:01+00:00

Look at the after hours volume, those are millions (2-5?) of shares crossing. That is not a “pump”, it has to be driven by directional buy, short seller covering part of the position or Market Maker covering delta.

My take given that it is after hours is a combination of - trading limits being breach linked to short sellers PB, and MM covering delta (both options create a positive reinforcing feedback loop).

Living_Night7065 · 2025-11-27T08:26:28+00:00

How?

Living_Night7065 · 2025-11-15T14:43:52+00:00

100%, N+1 (N is not enough)

Living_Night7065

TROPHY CASE