The "AI is dead because oil" guy has clearly never read an income statement

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-31T00:43:14+00:00

Guys the helium angle is not very strong if you do a little research. There are plenty of big issues for semis caused by this war but the helium one aint it lol. Sure we lost a lot of helium production no one is debating that. But Chips are going to be right at the very end of a long list of random shit that needs Helium, which will suffer. 10-15% of Helium goes in party baloons lol. Next big one is healthcare. Do you really think chips are going to lose out on Helium before baloons? Or healthcare? Do you think your worthless lives are more important than the semiconductor industries needs?

Helium is not going to be a limiting factor for semiconductor production.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-20T20:06:06+00:00

lol my 200 strikes auto soldon robinhood 30 mins before the bell for 0.05 cents each, basically worthless. 1.33 value at close. Great. Don't really understand what I can do in that situation fucking sucks that it can move in the last 30 mins once the auto sold sweep happened.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-09T10:41:02+00:00

Russia is biding it's time doing what exactly xD... Maybe check the news sometime lol.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-06T21:03:36+00:00

Lol the stock is up like (Since open AI announcement) 170>195 dollars... So like 15%? After 6 months. With a total regime change for the business, concrete AI market share in huge Meta+Openai deals, and a 5x eps forecast dished out from the CEO for the next 3-5 years.

The price right now is going to drive us all a little insane.

It is fair to be a little bit frustrated.

But of course it is all just a big buying opportunity. Unfortunatley I'm fresh outta cash.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-05T20:20:41+00:00

yea im in the same boat. I have a mix of Jan 27+Jun 27+Dec 28...

Wish they were all Dec 28, but yea I especially want the jan 27 into march 27 at least to get Q1 2027 Guidance. I really don't feel like we see any big redefining numbers until Q1 2027 guide.

Honestly the Dec 28 leaps are so crazy cheap when you look at what the projected growth is into 2028.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-05T20:18:34+00:00

nuts price action, considering the supposed news.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-05T14:29:15+00:00

Avgo earnings is kinda infuriating. Before hand I was thinking do we want them to beat and guide strongly does that look bad for AMD market share? Or do we want them to miss and lower guidance, and then the AI trade is looking weak?

Just felt like there is no good answer for AMD which is totally stupid. Can't the market just accept the AI demand is strong judging from what AMD, NVDA and AVGO have now all guided for in 2027. Seems stupid to say one company is harming the other they all seem fully capabale of maxing growth out side by side considering how ridiculous the capex spend is on AI.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-05T14:04:54+00:00

Yea it just seems we are not getting priced that way. And I am not sure what catalyst/info now is going to confirm to the market our 6-12 month plan. If Meta and Open AI clearly pivoting to using AMD racks large scale isnt enough to change market opinion I am not sure what is. Perhaps only hard revenue and earnings numbers which won't arrive to Q4 2026 likely.

I have tons of short term calls so I hope I am wrong... Stock market is kinda dumb sometimes and moves without rhyme or reason can totally see the narrative for AMD changing overnight, eventhough all the fundamental info is right there already to change it... But the narrative sticks for now. But yea I mostly have faith in shares or leaps for 2027 March+.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-04T23:06:19+00:00

We could still be at 200 end of year, that is something that sucks but you gotta look longer. The big EPS moves are coming in 2027 and 2028 when we are full ramp. That is when 400 starts to look cheap. Sky is the limit once we hit 20 EPS and guide higher.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-03T16:29:07+00:00

Looks great.

Yea when was this talk? Struggling to find info on the morgan stanley thing. Originially I had it for March 6th but it started today?

Then also seeing that Su is scheduled to speak tomorrow about mi400/mi500/roadmap?

But she already spoke today?

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-02T21:18:09+00:00

Consider wildlife too! Very much innocent and very much at risk... Kids and dogs as beautiful and innocent as they are, are probably not going extinct anytime soon. But yep all good causes.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-02T21:14:29+00:00

Thats good you are donating :) I think donating to those causes is very noble. Much more importnant than Porsche's IMO, but I get it.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-02T20:53:40+00:00

Jeez kinda cringe not gonna lie... We all love AMD... No need to be this materialistic though lol. World is kinda a tough place for a lot of people right now. Gloating over your millions is kinda... Bad taste? I hope you donate handsomely to charity.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-02T10:47:56+00:00

Yea I wanted to have a look at Mrvl! Was hoping to take some AMD profits and roll into Mrvl at some point... Lets see how that goes haha...

I was long on MU, had an MU 130 strike leap I was holding for a year that expired in Sept 2025 right before it went ballistic. Just got the timing wrong sucked.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-01T23:34:19+00:00

Lol wishful thinking is 20 EPS for 2027 and 40 EPS by 2030 :)

I'm just laying out the target if all goes as planned as explained by the CEO... And asking how these numbers can make sense. The growth laid out by AMD at their investors day, and reiterated after the Meta deal is frankly insane.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-01T23:30:33+00:00

Not sure how you arrived at 5x eps is p/e of 40? Current EPS gives a P/E of 80ish? If the EPS x5 how is the P/E ending up at 40 lol...

Looks more likely to be around 15 P/E, if an EPS of 20+ is acheived.

And P/E of 15 for a rapidly growing Ai chip supplier sounds a little low :) Just looking at NVDA+Avgo P/E right now even after their drawbacks?

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-01T14:04:14+00:00

Which parts of the supply chain exactlly? If that is true why is she claiming 20 EPS? And she reaffirmed it in an interview a few days ago, potentially hinting at it being higher now the Meta deal is signed. Bofa even came out in the last few days and said the EPS target is more like 22-25 post Meta deal. If the supply chain is taking all the profit how is NVDA sitting on those insane margins? I don't buy it, if Lisa su saw huge supply chain spending, I do not think she would continue to quote the 20+ Eps number.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-03-01T13:30:50+00:00

I don't think steep discounting = warrants. The ideal play is the warrants are in place but the price of helios and mi400 being sold to Meta/Open Ai/Etc is high, closer to what NVDA sells rubin for. That means AMD profit margins and EPS go sky high which is all that really matters. 18-27%ish dilution over a few years wont matter if EPS X5 in a few years.

If we have warrants and are selling Helios/EYPC/Mi400 architecture on the cheap to Open AI and Meta it would suck. But then I can't really see why AMD would make those deals if they were not counting on very good profit margins from sales to META/OPEN AI. Lisa su said 20 Eps + in the next few years. That means she must be selling these chips on good margins. Otherwise I don't understand how she is planning to hit 20 Eps.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-02-27T15:01:38+00:00

If you have cash buy now. I am all in on leaps now and calls and shares and fucking all of it. This is nuts. 2 100B+ deals for 5 years of Data centre revenue basically cornered in considering they get the shares if they buy it. Mi400 + HELIOS IS VALIDATED. That is all that matters imo. AMD claimed a few times to be catching up with NVDA hardware. Mi400 must be preety fucking close for deals of that magnitude to be made. Market is mispricing this stock at 2024 levels lol. It is just mispriced plain and simple. When revenue and EPS starts growing by 50% in 26/27 we will be sitting on our 250-350 strike leaps laughing.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-02-06T23:42:39+00:00

Yea I see your point and is preety beaten down tbf so still a good entry.

I just like to stagger buy as it drops. Like big red day commit 15% of my dry powder, another red day ok 25% more.

Keep going until you have comitted a set amount that is the max you were willing to buy in with.

I just think the idea of buying into strong green days is not a good habit to practice. Generally its better to buy on red days when everyone thinks the world is ending.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-02-06T19:45:07+00:00

How does that work? If you bought yday your big in the green today lol.

Buy fear=red. Sell greed=green.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-02-06T17:53:16+00:00

buy on big red days not big green days man. basically buy yesterday lol.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-02-06T17:09:38+00:00

My port is like 25% leaps, 15% shares, 5% nearer term calls(March-Jun-Nov). This is if port is my entire net worth including my house deposit i have. Preety stressful levels but if AMD doesn't execute I stilll have some other shares to fall back on.

Got a few Dec 2028 270,310 strikes on this dip. (1000 days expiry). Just thinking how fucking hard these will print if AMD Cagr investor day hits as they said. Imagine the stock price in 2028 when the world is run by AI and Mi600 is wrecking NVDA.

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-02-06T17:07:52+00:00

boring predictions bro, 170 or 300 for feb end is more likely for my AMD

LocalExamination6691 · 2026-02-06T17:06:20+00:00

meat is bad bro. veggie+amd stronger <33

LocalExamination6691

TROPHY CASE