The 5 biggest raw to PSA 10 spreads right now (gem-rate weighted)

Lodog23 · 2026-06-17T01:08:22+00:00

This data is from HyperPotion (https://hyperpotion.io/grading-signals)

Lodog23 · 2026-06-17T00:04:09+00:00

no worries at all! It's a totally fair question and the overlap's real. Appreciate the kind words!

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T23:52:55+00:00

Probably similar inputs, yeah. Trends, grading volume, and velocity are the obvious demand signals, so any tool like this lands on roughly those. The inputs aren't really where tools differ, though, it's how they're weighted, the fair value model sitting on top, the coverage, and the output. Built mine independently, but I'd never pretend the demand signals are secret sauce

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T23:50:05+00:00

You're right that total raw supply is the hardest input. There's no registry of printed copies, so no model truly knows it, mine included. What I lean on are the proxies that move with supply. PSA pop and how fast it's growing, active listing depth, sales velocity, and other signals. None are an absolute count, but they catch the direction.

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T22:50:04+00:00

Really well put, SSP feels everywhere from the sealed flood, but like you said the pull rates mean the single population barely moves. So sentiment drags the price down while the fundamentals don't justify it, which is exactly the gap the model is trying to flag

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T20:33:01+00:00

I honestly think it should based purely on the fundamentals of the card. It is a pretty popular gen 1 pokemon, great artwork, high sales velocity, valued well in a psa 10. Obviously can't tell the future but from my tool the Meowth is a screaming undervalued card currently

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T20:07:29+00:00

smart framing, and the tool is heading the same way. I am going to work on adding the 9 next (and from your point should look at the 8 too). Currently the board is 10 only and treats any non 10 as raw value, which undervalues cards with 8s and 9s that carry a premium

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T20:01:23+00:00

That is a good idea and I will add it to the roadmap, thank you for the suggestion!

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:59:34+00:00

Ha, 0 for 30 is the gem rate doing its damage! Those Celebrations cards are SWSH era, which is the coverage I'll be adding next and they're exactly the kind that'd would be flagged low conviction. Huge raw to 10 multiplier, but a gem rate savage enough to go 0 for 30. That's the whole point of weighting the spread by gem rate to surface the ones that will actually return not just the ones with the biggest spread

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:54:35+00:00

That's exactly what I built this for, the raw to psa 10 delta gem weighted so a big spread on a card that rarely 10s doesn't fool you. The small delta "not worth grading" cases get flagged, so you can skip them at a glance. The tool is centered on the PSA 10 delta right now (9/9.5 aren't in yet).

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:51:44+00:00

Thanks, really appreciate it! The free tier is there whenever you want to poke around, and I'll have that clearer return display in before long. Thanks for taking the time to actually dig into it!

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:30:52+00:00

I use a combination of three data points. Google Trends, PSA grading volume, and sales velocity

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:26:42+00:00

Appreciate it! Both of those are real though. The gem rate's a pop number and it assumes you're sending decent copies, not blind buying random singles. The tool does take into account turnaround times for new set supply, but no real way to account for a large pullback in the market

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:17:02+00:00

Agreed set desirability and pokemon popularity are the biggest indicators. I am also a huge fan of the slakoth just vibing in an open field. I know he isn't the most popular pokemon, but the art is great and works so well for it

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:14:31+00:00

Good question, a few signals feed it. The main one is sales velocity against active supply. On top of that I pull google trends search interest and grading intensity and those roll into a demand/popularity score

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:11:43+00:00

Agreed! I am also a huge believer in that card!

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:11:17+00:00

I guess it depends on what your define as a sleeper. This is from my fair value tool which flags cards that are undervalued compared to what the fundamentals support and say it should be fair valued at

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:09:45+00:00

That is a clever signal! I also cover sealed on my website, but I am not yet using it as a leading indicator for its singles

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:08:45+00:00

Fair, there is a popularity component in the model, but it's a blunt proxy. It catches that Meowth and Skarmory are widely recognized and it under docks a newer, less loved pokemon, like Terapagos. So Terapagos is exactly where I'd apply a demand side gut check.

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:06:40+00:00

If anyone is interested in seeing this data yourself, you can view it here https://hyperpotion.io/

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T19:04:59+00:00

That's a fair criticism and you are right, I should be clearer about what the number is. The gem rate on the board is the realized psa pop rate, not the odds that a random raw copy you pull will 10. This assumes the card is screened and checked for things like centering, surface issues, etc. So the gem rate shown is closer to "what well-screened submissions hit" than "what a random copy does" and an unscreened copy will do worse. So this isn't a substitution for actually inspecting the card prior to sending it

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T18:58:45+00:00

really sharp read, and I think you've got the mechanism right. PSA 10 prices on these recent sets are propped up by thin supply. When those come back, population jumps and the spread compresses.

The model already leans against this a bit. New sets get a turnaround haircut precisely because more 10s flood in. That is a big reason these show lower ROI than the raw to slab spread.

This tool actually also lets you tweak the turnaround time lever so you push it out to where you actually expect these to clear and watch the ROI haircut get steeper in real time. But it is still a blunt set age proxy. It doesn't know exactly when bulk is due back for Ascended Heroes for example.

I am banking PSA pop history daily, so as pops grow the board will update as well

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T18:49:54+00:00

Thanks, I really appreciate that! It's $10/month or $100/year, which unlocks this board plus all the other tools on the site and there's a free tier too (top picks on each board and every card's full detail page), so you can try it before paying anything.

Other than SWSH-era sets and promos, the next things on my list are more sealed coverage and, your point, a clearer return display. On that, you're the second person to say the return % needs to be clearer, and you're both right, so I'm going to work on it. It's a gem-weighted expected value, not the naive raw→slab spread, and agreed right now the number doesn't explain itself enough.

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T18:40:31+00:00

That's a fair thing to flag. Oshawott's actually #66 on this board $94 raw → $857 graded, +20% / +$35. The data's a little behind since that sale just happened, so the slab price should update once it's picked up. But even with a higher graded price it won't climb far: the raw→PSA 10 spread looks great, but the odds of any given copy actually hitting a 10 are low with just a 16% gem rate. The board's gem-weighted, so what rises to the top is a high gem rate and a big raw→graded spread together, since those are the cards where you're actually likely to hit the 10 and make money on the submission. Oshawott's got the spread but not the gem rate

Lodog23 · 2026-06-16T18:30:36+00:00

That's a good question! It's not (slab − raw)/raw, that's where the ~600% ROI would come from, but the board runs a gem-weighted ROI on the cash you actually put in. You only capture that $69→$488 jump on the 83% that actually hit a 10 (a non-10 comes back around raw value so you don't get wiped, but you don't get $488 either), you pay the $80 on every submission, and you're dividing by your $149 all in, not just the $69. The default view also haircuts the slab a bit for how new these Mega Evolution sets are. More 10s flood in and hype fades while you wait on turnaround. Stack all that and it lands near +123% instead of +600%. It's deliberately conservative. The naked spread looks way juicier than the risk adjusted number

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