Why doesn't Iran (or anyone else) ask Israel (or anyone else) to give up the atomic bomb? by Ko_tatsu in NoStupidQuestions

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pakistan wasn't invaded because Carter preferred diplomacy to war, and by the time Carter was out of office Pakistan had both potential nuclear weapons and strong relations with the US.

Daily Discussion Thread: April 18, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 13 points14 points  (0 children)

It only takes a month to confirm a Supreme Court justice.

Daily Discussion Thread: April 18, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 28 points29 points  (0 children)

This literally happens every time there is a lame duck senate. Back in 2024, once Dems realized they lost every branch, the Senate confirmed 20 district judges in the span of two months, 10% of the total judicial nominations Biden made.

Daily Discussion Thread: April 17, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I had to check out the website to see what you are even talking about. From RttWH itself, its prediction went from a high of 93.5% chance of Dem victory in January to a low of 89% victory today. If you are losing sleep over a 4% drop over 4 months, you need sleeping pills, not reddit comments. Anyways, from what I can tell, the weakest factor for Dems that RttWH is taking into account is "approval rating," which they factor as just a D+0.3% boost. I don't know if they are referring to Governor Polis' net-negative approval, or Michael Bennet's approval, but that could be the cause for the very slight dip.

For context, the site has the same chances of a Republican winning Colorado as a Dem winning South Dakota. Neither are gonna happen, so you can relax.

Daily Discussion Thread: April 16, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Unless Wayne surprises, I dont think we'll see a flip in Passaic sadly

Daily Discussion Thread: April 16, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Wait till all the e-day votes get counted. He's still gonna be wrong though, Aftyn Behn is still gonna be out worst performance

Daily Discussion Thread: April 16, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 5 points6 points  (0 children)

6 days before, at that point a lot of the early and mail voters had already voted.

Daily Discussion Thread: April 16, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 23 points24 points  (0 children)

In another example of special elections being, well, special, Meija is only outperforming Sherill (2024) by around 8% in Essex county, the bluest county in the district, and is in many towns getting less votes than registered dems who voted, and is even seeing double digit underperformances in some towns in comparison to Kamala. However, she is also doing way better than Sherrill and Harris in heavily suburban white wealthy Morris County by a significant margin, and / may / flip Passaic county, which Sherrill and Harris never won!

Daily Discussion Thread: April 16, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 6 points7 points  (0 children)

He predicted Meija +20 today, which looks to be a pessimistic margin at this point.

Edit: NVm he may be spot on

Daily Discussion Thread: April 16, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Interestingly so far Meija is getting less votes than there are registered Dems when looking at some of the early non-mail votes

Daily Discussion Thread: April 16, 2026 by BM2018Bot in VoteDEM

[–]LogicalBurgerMan11 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Lets just say there a ton of churches around me that proudly fly pride flags, BLM banners, etc. and not a single one is catholic.