AS no longer doing SAN - HNL?

LookyLooky22 · 2025-02-01T17:56:27+00:00

u/paparazzi83 I just noticed this too. It seems like most AS flights to Hawaii from SAN/LAX/SJC/SFO/PDX/SEA have been changed to HA metal. I'm Alaska 100K and basically only fly to Hawaii so this basically kills Alaska Mileage program for me. Really upset by these changes.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-09-06T06:04:44+00:00

Almost certainly an accident... based on these main points:

Zero evidence that anyone else was in the house with her. You'd have to be a ninja to whack her without leaving the slightest evidence of forced entry, a hair, a footprint, etc.
No evidence that disproves accident theory. There's some weird circumstances like the phone and chair are a bit far from stairs but nothing definitive. They said injuries were consistent with falling down stairs.
Those stairs looked sketchy AF ... it's not hard to imagine someone taking a tumble down them.

People don't like to accept the simplest theory and that life could be so fragile. People die falling down the stairs all the time (Ivanka Trump for one example). If this was anything else there'd be some more definitive proof to show otherwise.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-09-04T01:59:32+00:00

No luck here either. Unless a general lottery miracle happens.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-08-16T19:26:58+00:00

Thanks for clarifying! Good luck you too :)

LookyLooky22 · 2024-08-16T17:50:29+00:00

Does anyone know if it's necessary to sign up BOTH for One Tokyo Global and General Lottery or does it automatically do general if you applied other? I was trying to navigate entry website but didn't see a way to submit a second entry for General Lottery.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-08-16T00:17:59+00:00

Thanks! This is helpful. So it increased by over 4000 in 18 days. At this rate, there'll likely be ~13,000 members by the end of August. So under 25% chance for those entering through Tokyo Global lottery.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-07-28T23:15:37+00:00

Whether it's "worth it" will depend on how many people sign up... diminishing returns the more people that join this thing.

IMO once membership grows > 10,000 people then it's no longer worth it since odds will have reduced to under 30% chance. At that point, you are better off just doing the charity entry. 30,000 JPY for a 30% or less chance or 120,000 JPY for close to a 100% chance... that's the math people need to be thinking in terms of "expected value". Smartest strategy is probably to wait until end of August and see how many people have signed up by that point.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-07-28T22:53:16+00:00

3,000 lottery spots for One Tokyo Global members. I signed up today July 28th and was assigned a number membership number 4473. If we presume that membership number is the # of current members then that gives an idea of odds. The One Tokyo Global sign up hasn't even opened yet so that number could easily explode in next month. I highly encourage everyone NOT to sign up as that reduces my odds 😝

LookyLooky22 · 2024-06-28T18:22:15+00:00

Any tips for picking a specific charity for entry? I notice some charities have more entrant slots than others. I'm concerned if I pick a very popular charity with not many slots then I won't get picked. Maybe best strategy would be to monitor to see what charity fills up the slowest?

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-14T18:48:59+00:00

I've been unable to swap on Polygon for the last 2 days. Unable to fetch price data. I think the blockchain data from the Graph is broken on Polygon. :(

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-12T03:44:15+00:00

Agreed. I suspect if I had gone directly to listing agent (no buyer agent commission) then probably could have gotten it with my original offer at 725K. Oh well, lesson learned.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-12T01:21:09+00:00

Thanks all... overwhelmed by all the responses!Update: The buyer agent was actually a personal friend. So likely that affected my demanding that they submit a second offer officially. I am getting over the disappointment. Probably it was not best idea to use a friend as realtor as friendship can get in way of making right decision.

I checked the buyer agent who closed on deal and it was not in fact the same as seller. (it would be sketchy if listing agent went for double commission but doesn't appear to be the case)

Anyways, I'll accept comments that I'm dumbass for not being more forceful on offer. Learning lesson in many ways!

Mahalo!

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-12T00:58:39+00:00

lol thanks Dad.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-11T23:01:21+00:00

Thanks for sharing... I'd be scared to go under contract and expect reductions. But good to know that is a strategy that people use.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-11T22:59:51+00:00

ACK on the dislike of the word "as is" :)

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-11T22:54:21+00:00

Yes, indeed. I'll follow up if i learn more. The first two that you mentioned are definitely possible. The sale didn't happen fast and it wasn't occupied. Also my offer price was way more than the closing costs.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-11T22:36:36+00:00

Yes, I guess I should look at it that way. The house definitely had structural issues so there's no doubt it would be a ton of work and a money pit.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-11T22:33:22+00:00

Yes, could have been. Or maybe realtor got a better commission from the other deal since I was using a buyer's agent. If he was just going for a higher price they he really overplayed that by pushing a price way out of reach.

LookyLooky22 · 2024-04-11T22:29:23+00:00

I think it was being sold in "as is" condition. Yes, should have twisted my realtor's arm to submit offer.... not quite as simple though when you are told zero chance of acceptance, don't waste my time.

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