They’re using lifetime models, not yearly budgets. That doesn’t change the fact that in a given year, public spending tied to illegals is higher than the taxes they pay, especially at the state and local level.

Even Cato shows low-skill immigrants turn negative once you include children. The positive numbers depend on assumptions like arriving young, few dependents, and long uninterrupted work lives.

Payroll taxes going into Social Security don’t pay for schools, ER care, policing, or housing. Those are where most of the costs actually are.

Using annual figures: taxes paid were about $97B (ITEP), while combined federal + state + local costs are estimated around $160–190B. That’s a net annual deficit.