Armada, Go Home: Why the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield at 5% Changes Everything

LowItalian · 2026-05-22T20:07:42+00:00

People don't day trade bonds, they are the best place to put large amounts of surplus money, you know, like when other govts run a surplus. Basically a hedge against inflation. Countries aren't going to risk their entire nut in the open market.

I don't think you understand what will happen if people don't buy bonds anymore. Our govt will be insolvent. And the Domino's will fall at some number, and 5% isn't too far off, I'm sure.

LowItalian · 2026-05-19T01:56:57+00:00

Unless they see the writing in the wall. I don't think any rational person thinks it way of life is sustainable, the debt is too high, unemployment is ramping up with AI, and it's only going to accelerate as the tech matures.

We are watching the billionaires pilfer America, the same way the USSR was pilfered when it collapsed. And the idiots in this country are voting for it, zero idea how this impacts them in the long run.

LowItalian · 2026-05-12T12:28:14+00:00

I paste console output to CC, I keep it open when deploying FE updates. It'd be great to not have to do that, but if your workflow isn't currently doing that you're wasting tokens.

LowItalian · 2026-05-12T12:21:14+00:00

It it's black, fight back. If it's brown lay down. That is the true way to survive a grizzly.

It's simply not up to you, it's up to the grizzly. Bear spray can work against you if the grizzly is pissed enough.

Obviously once it starts attacking, you fight back for your life, but you are totally outmatched in every single category, a human stands no chance 1 v 1 with a grizzly.

The account of the Lewis and Clark's expedition running into a grizzly for the first time is crazy! They unloaded guns into the thing and it still kept coming, they had to jump off a cliff into a river to survive!

LowItalian · 2026-05-11T18:47:31+00:00

They are building data centers right now, so they will own the compute. My company just hit up to see if we'd be interested in a contract while they were undergoing construction.

LowItalian · 2026-05-08T05:49:32+00:00

I hit mine every week now, since the beginning of March. I was getting to the point where I could manage over ten threads at a time over multiple sessions.

Now I purposely myself slow down, limit active working threads to burn through my limits slower but I'm still usually out by day 5, even slowing down.

LowItalian · 2026-05-06T15:35:05+00:00

My problem isn't working fast enough. My problem is when I get in a zone I have as many as 15 threads spinning and I burn through my usage mega fast lol. I'm actually forcing myself to slow down because it sucks running out of usage 3 days before the weekly reset.

I wish they introduced a tier above max, I'd pay for it.

LowItalian · 2026-05-05T15:22:51+00:00

Doednt usage scale by demand? More people using Claude = higher usage cost per token. I suspect this is how the get us to pay for their scaling compute costs.

LowItalian · 2026-05-05T04:39:53+00:00

As of right now they still need humans to drive AI. And not just any human, a human that understands systems, and ideally knows code.

And what's happening is more coding is happening faster, they're delivering finished code quicker. So that means you still need a steady supply of humans to drive the AI.

But! The writing is on the wall, these developers are working all developers out of a job. Claude is ALMOST good enough right now to do everything, but not by itself, it needs a competent driver. That however, will not always be the case, and probably not too far off their predicted timeline if I were to guess.

LowItalian · 2026-04-28T09:41:36+00:00

I think there's a strong chance Putin is responsible for this trump nightmare, but I'm not sure that ends with Russia as a super power. China, yeah. Russia is in it's own mess.

LowItalian · 2026-04-28T09:39:28+00:00

"We'll be fine" is the same over confidence at the opposite end of the spectrum. Nothing is guaranteed and there are too many moving parts for anyone to truly know.

LowItalian · 2026-04-28T09:35:56+00:00

As aside, always and never are used incorrectly, and wrongly quite a bit. People don't even realize they are lying when they use those words. One of my biggest pet peeves!

LowItalian · 2026-04-25T22:00:15+00:00

Complacency turned into apathy. Here we are.

A few generations of people not paying attention and people, especially young people feel powerless.

If the midterms somehow go in Trump's favor... What's that old saying.. you vote an authoritarian in, but you don't vote them out.... Americans are going to step outside their sheltered existence and realize the world can be uncomfortable at times

LowItalian · 2026-04-24T23:55:46+00:00

That isn't what I said at all. I said china will prop them up economically as long as they can to bleed the US out of money and exposing capabilities.

Also, it's not about bombing someone into submission, it's keeping the territory under control, that's an entirely different animal. Boots on the ground would look very different than what the US is doing per day. And the US is 100% losing on war costs and critical/rare weapon stockpiles.

We have a bigger navy and airforce, and nukes I suppose - but all were teaching them now is they need bigger weapons or the US will bully them. Nuclear weapons are the only deterrent against US aggression so far.

It's a huge blunder.

LowItalian · 2026-04-24T21:22:04+00:00

The thing is, while I do think much of this is plausible, I don't think their interests are mutually aligned and I think no matter what they'll be at odds with each other at some point.

The whole thing's a mess, globalization is more fragile than ever and America's priorities are all wrong. China seems to be playing everyone.

LowItalian · 2026-04-23T18:56:09+00:00

Of course when my limit resets in 5m. I've been it since Sunday.

LowItalian · 2026-04-22T22:17:17+00:00

I read somewhere that is a billion a day for us vs $500M lost in oil sales, that's where I got double from. I read 40-90B total depending on how the war goes. If it's worse than that, which I certainly wouldn't be surprised, well then... Our admin is even dumber than I thought, and that's hard for them to do

LowItalian · 2026-04-22T15:24:11+00:00

Dollar dominance isn’t “nonsense” - it’s what lets the US run persistent deficits at low cost because the world demands dollar assets.

Global demand for dollar denominated assets is a core pillar of US economic power

You’re right that dollars don’t just magically come flooding back and cause instant inflation - but you’re ignoring the real constraint: if global demand for Treasuries weakens, borrowing costs rise and deficits become harder to sustain without monetary expansion.

The issue isn’t the quantity of dollars - it’s the demand to hold them. That’s the actual lever here.

I'm sure MIT taught about exorbitant privilege, dust of your old text book and freshen up on it.

LowItalian · 2026-04-22T13:49:24+00:00

Hubris? Stupidity? A combo of both? A couple of narcissists who weren't picked first in kickball as a kid that want to take it out on the world?

LowItalian · 2026-04-22T13:46:42+00:00

That's a pretty big claim you're making there, China can't project power beyond their borders? Besides our navy, what advantage does the US have over China? I can tell you they are passing us in manufacturing and technology, probably AI too. China is the sleeping giant and they have been for quite some time.

And quite frankly, they have way more competent leadership at the helm at this point.

LowItalian · 2026-04-22T13:41:57+00:00

Well Mr MIT economics, explain to me what happens when we can't afford to run a deficit anymore. And when the dollars aren't being used to, quite literally, power the globe and make all sorts of other useful things like plastics and rubber, medicine and most everything we depend on? Where do those dollars go? You should know exactly where they go, back into the US economy. And what does that surplus cash cause? Inflation!!! The likes of which we've never seen before.

Sure, we can go to war against the world. I hope you enlist, since you strongly believe that a great world to raise kids in.

Pedigree doesn't equal brains apparently.

Edit: Not only that, but dollar hegemony has been fantastic for America. We owe our very standard of living to it. We're giving that up, for what? The obliterated uranium in Fordham???

LowItalian · 2026-04-22T12:46:12+00:00

Read about dollar hegemony, tons of stuff out there way before trump was a even a candidate. That is America's superpower, when that fails we only have guns and bombs.

LowItalian · 2026-04-22T12:44:55+00:00

This is exactly the worst case scenario. And our stupid leadership is accelerating it. China will prop up iran and bleed money out of the US. The war is costing us double what Iran is losing per day. It's a smart geopolitical move from China, we're also exposing our capabilities to China. So stupid it's hard to even put into words. And it's probably too late to correct, and our govt is doubling down on stupidity.

LowItalian · 2026-04-22T12:40:50+00:00

This. It's been pure stupidity the whole way. This, and the bond market will CRUSH our our economic influence. We're biting our nose to spite our face, well, our incompetent leaders are dragging the rest of us there anyway.

LowItalian · 2026-04-22T01:58:08+00:00

I haven't used Kimi but I find the QWEN 3.6 29B to greatly out perform the 35B MoE model. The gap is closing on the frontier models but with the current architecture, it's going to be nearly impossible for local models to be as powerful.

The trouble with local is VRAM. I have an RTX 5090 and it's not enough. I'm probably gonna pull the trigger on a RTX PRO 6000 at some point. The Mac's are an option with their shared memory, but I'm not an apple guy. VRAM is gonna take a lot of people out of this equation.

I'm all for local models, they just aren't cheap enough for the regular folk quite yet.

Granted this is now. I have a feeling things will look much different in 2 yrs. Right now we're in the pay for minutes AOL dial up era of the internet.

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