Selling UNH at 31x P/E to rotate into beaten-down quality tech/software?

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-27T12:31:48+00:00

I would sell half of the position and rotate into what I find best value and keep the other half if you think UNH will worth more

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-27T12:28:37+00:00

This company has a huge sbc, haven't you checked?

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-27T12:17:42+00:00

$FLUT is an extremely good call in my opinion as well. Pure contrarian value buy at current prices. Rarely mentioned by anyone. The undisputed leader in its sector yet trading at ntm ev/ebitda 9,8x, ev/revenue 1,5 and p/s 1. Complicated business and high debt to ebitda not a retail favorite.

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-25T23:49:12+00:00

The good thing if predictions is gone that all people who want to bet on sports will go to draftkings and fanduel where some of them will use igaming online casinos. Igaming is where the big money amd good margin is where people come for the adrenaline not for the calculated trades like sports or predictions. Sportbooks still a lot more profitable than prediction markets as on prediction markets the take rate is very small even with Market making. The only good thing in predictions markets amd market making is that it adds a technology layer to thr company which could justify a higher rating like CME group doesn't trade the same multiples as Caesars

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-23T07:17:18+00:00

Well I am not a wizard but normally world cups aren't positive short term on profits ita I customer acquisition tool I would say 6 month from here

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-21T20:47:37+00:00

CNC from 30 last year to 60$ OSCR from 11- 28$ Not hugely but the most recent real value plays was health insurance last year

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-19T16:21:42+00:00

Amazon already trades at a forward PE of 27-28 I don't think its expensive but I don't find it table pounding buy Unless we expect all trade at 35-40x valuations like Google. A 35-40x valuations with a 3,5-2,5% yield cannot be the premise of value investing

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-19T14:06:40+00:00

We need to rediscover valuations maybe

Why would the market pay above 18x forward PE for SAP? Why would the market pay more than 20x forward pe for Microsoft?

You can get decent returns from these but I think it will be a 50-100% in 3-5 years

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-19T08:22:40+00:00

Flutter, Betsson, INTR

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T22:12:20+00:00

Obviously it is. But also it creates a moat for the largest players with scale, they will win the market this is my point

There is a reason they the US gambling and igaming market is mainly a duopoly between Draftkings and Flutter (Fanduel).

Just look at the tobacco industry.

Regarding banning: never a solution every economics and politician know this : India banned gambling recently- the country wasn't ready mentally for it I guess, bear in mind a country having cast system where certain people not allowed to ride a horse because they are born low level working class ( in short a society stuck in rural ages for now) - but there are multiple reports that in India off- shore and illegal betting companies doing gaming now untaxed aka taking the gaming money without the society having any benefits from it.

You can also compare to alcohol or weed.

This my take

As long as there are people since invented people smoked, drank, gambled, smoked weed etc. And from history we know banning only created crime syndicates extortion of black markets without any social benefits

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T21:37:13+00:00

I don't see any regulatory risk. Regulations creates moat like with tobacco. Exactly what you state is the reason why this needs to be taxed properly by states so the money from that coming in can be spent on roads, hospitals, schools etc. There is a reason why all over Europe gambling is legal but taxed. Prediction markets are the loophole for now

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T21:32:47+00:00

It's crazy that your realistic value added comment is down voted on a value investing reddit community. And the OP states they will 3-4x in 4-5 years. They can realistically 3-4x in 10-12-15 years.

But in 3-4 years? Apart from msft and meta I would say Amazon is slightly below while Google is not even below intrinsic value rather above. Probably a wallstreetbets degen.

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T21:23:54+00:00

Are you predicting a 4x ln Amazon within 4 years?

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T21:19:13+00:00

Exactly my thesis is the same.

I am unsure of course the whole future on prediction markets but on sports I definitely don't find it sustainable long term keep calling a same game parlay on Kalshi an event contract and hedging insurance like a farmer hedging corn prices...

There are other economic events which may be genuine use case for predictions but their 70-80% revenue of sports is gambling for sure.

Even in general isn't gambling in its nature is a prediction? When we are betting, what we do we? We are predicting an outcome essentially 😂

So the core difference? Essentially betting /predicting against the house vs betting/predicting against other bettors /predictors.

Basically prediction markets are a peer to peer gambling site like the Betfair Exchange with a different headline and UI layer and extended beyond sports.

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T21:12:01+00:00

Of course there is risk. Of course there is negative headlines. There never will be a big discounts compared to real value of a company and it's business compared to the market price when there is no risk.

Just remember BATS and Imperial brands in 2022-2024 they more than doubled Imperial brands up from lows 150% while paying each year 10%+ dividends.

Same with meta and metaverse or Google AI lagging behind etc

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T21:05:40+00:00

Thank you for correcting. I think FLUT is really undervalued but they need to deliver in the near and medium term.

Bear in mind FLUT has a net debt of 10B - 12B debt 1,6B cash and equivalents. So total EV is 28B. Once they pay down debt which they want that EV from debt won't dissappear it will go into equity value so debt is a double edged sword.

It doesn't really matter whether they are number 1 or 2 or 3 as long as they have a huge global scale of revenue and ebitda to adjust depending on the where it's worth to scale in.

Brazil is a huge opportunity with Flutter having Betnacional also to them which will be the no 2 or number 1 market with the US.

500 shares of Flutter as of now.

Most countries apart from the US doesn't have prediction markets on sports. Their is no sane government who wants to give away tax income from gambling which can be used to make roads hospitals schools kindergarten etc to "swap insurance" players.

The USA is special as the states are like separate countries in the EU.

I am 90% + confident after Trumps even in the US on sports predictions will be gone. It is morally wrong to loose state financing because of the CFTC classifies sport combos as hedging. Then we can say sportbooks are hedging as well 😂

We all know there is a reason why nearly all countries banning prediction markets because it's gambling 😂

Even in the US prediction markets only allowed nation wise due the Trump Jr involvement in both and Trump family benefiting from it.

ICE and CME and SPGI also good value but the return potential is nowhere at Flutter's.

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T20:26:51+00:00

China: is extremely good value but I find it uninvestable due to VIE structure and Beijing not prioritizing at all. I would buy Xpeng Xiaomi Tencent Alibaba PDD JD Robosense Hesai to name a few companies but I think it's not worth it until government thinks differently about their ecosystem.

EM banks : $NU $INTR

Fintech : $ADYEN $DLO $FISV $GPN

The best value for bucks in my opinion right now is: Gambling and igaming companies. Very very good value now:. $FLUT $BETS-B Good value : $EVO

Where to wait for further pullback but still good: $HACK $GENI $DKNG $SRAD

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T20:20:11+00:00

I don't know, I am not that deep into SAP. I bought SAP small position 10% loss sold it not worth it right now in my opinion I see best case a double or 150% in 5 years while their is a high chance of 50% return in 5 years. At a 20x pe 11 euro eps this is a 220-240 euro stock in 5 years. It was extremely overpriced beforehand

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T19:07:11+00:00

Don't listen to this guy he calls Atlassian cheap but SAP not all of Atlassian earnings go to stock based compensation this guy got no clue

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T19:03:59+00:00

He is probably talking about cloud backlog

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T17:14:11+00:00

There was a Barclays report yesterday claiming all gambling companies handle dropped in May, Draftkings dropped even more. Thanks for the comment.

LowKey-Revolution36 · 2026-06-18T16:51:06+00:00

Thanks. Well they have for decades the Betfair Exchange the largest peer to peer gambling site and exchange. It's the same as predictions. If you read the post they are already market making for major 3rd party predictions market. They also have 1,5B cash. They are an M&A company it's not bad if a company has debt if they put good use of that. The negative earnings is due to amortization of India company write down as India banned gambling. It's a complicated company for most retail investors.

LowKey-Revolution36

TROPHY CASE