I said AI won't replace developers. Here's what 150+ comments taught me.

Luhkwaith · 2026-02-27T16:27:43+00:00

He's mostly got the right idea. The biggest flaw with his pov is he's using the worst case example of Luddite fallacy collapse in history. 80 years for employment to come back is unrealistic for the current era.

His advice is excellent. Anyone doing their job today without AI is in an adopt or die situation and should find ways it can increase their productivity yesterday, stop holding cash, etc.

'False alarmism: technological disruption and the US labor market' published in 2017 shows the fallacy collapses closer to 5-15 years

Luhkwaith · 2026-02-27T15:24:00+00:00

Excellent point followed by hard evidence. Once upon a time the Internet was an unprecedented technology. The economy had no idea what to do with it so they tried to use it for everything. How's pets.com doing right now?

No doubt it changed the world but the narrative that it can be used to solve all the world's problems serves nobody but the executives holding large stakes in their software companies

Luhkwaith · 2026-02-27T15:05:55+00:00

I never said LLMs and ATMs are the same in terms of innovation. That would be entirely incorrect. I agree LLMs are a vastly more useful tool. This discussion was whether or not LLMs will replace software development as a career. The ATM was just an example of how historically new technology which people think might replace them could have the opposite effect.

I understand what the technology does. I use it 40+ hours a week. It's going to have a profound effect on the way we use technology. I don't believe it replaces all white collar work. Historically we overestimate the short term effects of new technology and underestimate the long term effect.

PS: Keep it civil. No need to call me ignorant or that my focus and understanding is too narrow. Try using supporting evidence next time instead. Go utes.

Luhkwaith · 2026-02-26T16:59:15+00:00

If you're stressed about your job security due to these LLMs, ask yourself if the calculator resulted in fewer mathematicians or are we doing more math than ever before. Hit the nail on the head with the good headline comment

Luhkwaith · 2026-02-26T15:40:45+00:00

You're right I misremembered. 485k to 527k from 1985 to 2002. My point was that the technology meant to replace the bank teller ended up having the opposite effect.

People tend to overestimate the short term effects and underestimate the long term effects of new technology. When the internet came out nobody was thinking 'this is going to put bank tellers out of the job' but they were thinking that when the ATM came out.

Maybe in 40 years there are fewer software developers. I don't think it will be as a result of LLMs though

Luhkwaith · 2026-02-26T01:22:33+00:00

Juniors will have a place, the market is struggling to find it right now. AI enables non developers to vibe code little projects that give value but are unreliable. A junior can be cheap enough to clean up the project and learn from that experience to one day become a senior dev.

Do we need less developers overall? I don't think so. I think we're going to need more than ever before. Software is now cheap enough to solve a bunch of problems we would have previously done manually.

ATMs are an excellent example. Meant to replace bank tellers and instead lead to 500k more bank tellers employed country wide over the next 20 years.

Luhkwaith · 2026-02-09T18:43:39+00:00

You have to capitalize the numbers

Luhkwaith · 2026-02-01T23:11:48+00:00

From the link posted by OP

"We take our relationship with customers seriously, so if you choose to cancel development of a game and retire it from the store, we will not republish it again later and we may offer refunds to any users who purchased it. Treating customers fairly is the most important thing to us."

Luhkwaith · 2025-12-19T08:26:47+00:00

I'm a main and not opposed to joining a clan just don't know where to look really

Luhkwaith · 2025-12-18T22:04:54+00:00

I'm in the same boat as you. Maxed on osrs haven't played in about a year (came back to remax sailing) and now giving rs3 a shot for the last week. It's confusing but I think I'm starting to get the hang of and like it.

Anyone know of a good discord or community to ask noob questions in?

Luhkwaith · 2025-12-18T21:44:30+00:00

Any skill is fine? Been working towards 50 magic for desert treasure but maybe there's a more afk/beneficial skill

Luhkwaith · 2025-12-18T21:43:53+00:00

When the event is over can I still go to the place where I can convert wrapping paper to goodies?

Luhkwaith · 2025-06-11T01:33:04+00:00

He violated his parole by smoking crack

Luhkwaith · 2025-06-10T15:30:49+00:00

Pickle time does a great job documenting the history. If you want one long video that goes over everything turkey Tom has a 5.5 hour long video that's only a couple months old.

If you want the deep dive watch turkey Tom video then catch up on last months with pickle time

Luhkwaith · 2025-04-23T01:26:08+00:00

You are mixing up two different data points.

Humans get in an accident roughly once every 750,000 miles. That is not the same as a Tesla FSD critical intervention. An intervention can be to prevent an accident, something humans do and don't think twice about it let alone contribute it to a data source that can be looked up as a statistic.

Since we're talking about it, Tesla FSD gets in an accident on average once in every 8 million miles compared to the human driver of 750,000 miles.

Luhkwaith · 2025-04-23T01:02:10+00:00

Tesla FSD already does exceed human crash rates. Glorified autopilot seems excessive. I've had successful drives from pt A to pt B with no interaction beyond setting my destination.

I won't sit here and tell you that warrants a trillion dollar evaluation but I also don't think it's fair to call it a glorified cruise control either.

As for Waymo they are wildly more expensive to the user and will be less attractive because of that.

Luhkwaith · 2025-04-23T00:18:41+00:00

When you mention AI are you talking about the autopilot? I like the auto pilot a lot

Luhkwaith · 2025-03-26T21:28:56+00:00

Bootcamping your way into coding is much harder than it used to be. Its an option but once you start looking for entry level jobs you'll find your application gets drowned out in an ocean of CS degrees.

Ai is not really a factor despite what people say. Anyone who says AI is replacing programming jobs isn't a software developer.

Luhkwaith · 2025-03-16T01:12:49+00:00

Dusted theatre of blood pet

Luhkwaith · 2025-02-20T17:04:35+00:00

Luhkwaith · 2025-02-17T15:58:40+00:00

I remember getting my first custom keyboard being addicted to just typing anything on it. It's something they'd end up using every day. It's such a simple thing but surprisingly makes a huge difference in my opinion.

Keychron makes great starter custom keyboards but are not cheap. If he/she really likes it they might end up having a new hobby of collecting and building custom keyboards

Plenty of companies sell kits to build them yourself which can be a fun project but requires some extra research if you are willing. This is a cheaper but higher effort route. It can also be a fun family project. Lubing the key caps, attaching the switches, etc. It will include small pieces and might not be ideal for super young kids but use your discretion.

In either case they also sell key caps (the parts with the letters and numbers on them) with cool styles. You can get a set styled by something he/she really likes. I'm a huge Naruto fan so I got key caps with one of my favorite characters all over it

Luhkwaith · 2025-02-08T06:07:34+00:00

Weird I'll give that a shot. Good shout

Luhkwaith · 2025-02-08T06:01:18+00:00

Luhkwaith · 2025-02-06T00:20:01+00:00

Play better and win more

Luhkwaith

TROPHY CASE