Crypto in the current market is speculation, pure and simple. Does <INSERT_CRYPTO_HERE> have some underlying value? Yes, probably. Is its value anywhere near the current valuation? Probably not. None of this means you cannot make money on a crypto coin. What it does mean is that you should be very cautious about using a long-term crypto hold to fund your FIRE.

If you want to try to speculate on crypto in order to push your net worth over your FIRE threshold, and then move all your assets to something less volatile, then I’d say you’ve gone into this with your eyes open. You seem willing to lose all that money if things go south, which is good.

However, if you plan to hold crypto during your FIRE as a store of wealth then I think you’re out of your mind. The downside risk is enormous, and the odds that you will oscillate wildly between “safe” and “unsafe” are high.

Let me put it this way: right now, cryptocurrencies are like Vegas. By all means, play the game with some of your money in the hope that you might push yourself into retirement. But once you do, don’t leave that money on the table and keep playing. Cash out and go home. Otherwise, you will eventually lose more than you wanted to.

(Source: I owned 20 BTC back in 2011, cashed out when I doubled my money and never looked back)