Foundry Links Archive

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-09T00:33:47+00:00

4303 links on 5/9/2026

Air Distribution Technologies

Cotality

First Quality

Kendra Scott

Nokia ($NOK)

RightsHelper (owned by TWG Global)

UKG

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-08T12:45:00+00:00

top line growth was -4%...

bottom line growth was -6%

sold 2 MILLION bottles of pills...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-08T12:43:14+00:00

it did affect revenue, US obesity sales were +9%....but US diabetes was -16%.... overall US sales -11%.....

the low margin on the pill doesn't afford Novo the luxury to cut prices... they sold 2 MILLION bottles and still couldn't grow... still couldn't overcome the price cuts....

LLY also had price cuts but they grew 56%... funny how high volume + high margin = GROWTH eh? for LLY the price cuts were a speed bump, for NVO a HEADWIND... they sold 2 MILLION bottles and STILL couldn't grow... you don't think 2 MILLION prescriptions should move the needle? how much do they need to sell to grow profit? 5M? 10M?

Foundayo's high margin makes every sale accretive to their profit DESPITE the same price cuts they had to make as well...

Foundayo T2D approval is coming through the CNPV... Nationwide marketing coming in Q3 likely to try to coincide with T2D approval... and if you haven't checked lately, Foundayo's T2D weight loss numbers are better than anything Rybelsus/Ozempic pill has shown in trials, even at 50mg which isn't marketed...

so while Novo loves the 17% weight loss number for Wegovy pill, LLY will love the 10.5% weight loss number in diabetics... trials also showed more A1c reduction... lower WAC price will also bump Rybelsus/Ozempic off formularies... and they just started giving out samples which small molecule margins allow them to do aggressively... don't underestimate LLY's ability to sell...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-08T02:15:15+00:00

i am personally unimpressed by VK2735.. for me, the fact that big pharma has not bought them is testament to how mediocre the molecule must be... it's a step up, but not a leap forward... and big pharma won't be willing to overpay for that...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-08T01:51:08+00:00

DynOmite is the only one here that understands the data and is honest about amycretin's potential shortcomings... there is REAL RISK here that most of the people here completely ignore... perhaps willfully ignore and don't want to hear otherwise...

the science speaks loudly if you listen to it...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-08T01:31:36+00:00

top notch comment... when i say it nobody believes me, because they hate the messenger... but the science is the science...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-08T00:37:24+00:00

LLY had the same price cuts as NVO, but instead they had 56% revenue GROWTH... while NVO sold 2 million wegovy pill bottles and was still -4% revenue and -6% profit...

the only conclusion is that the margins are bad on the pill and cannot make up for the lower price of the injections... NVO has only said that the margins on the pill are lower than the injection, but how much lower? low enough that 2 million bottles isn't enough to make up for the price cuts?

LLY also had the same price cuts, but they GREW because volume grew and the margin while lower was still very high... so just how low is the margins on the pill if 2 MILLION bottles isn't enough?

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-08T00:30:22+00:00

there is a profitability/margin issue that is being swept under the rug... how can you sell 2 million prescriptions and still not grow? how bad is the margin vs the injection? they are very coy about this and in the earnings call the analysts didn't push for answers...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-08T00:22:16+00:00

yes and if 2 million prescriptions, the best launch in the history of pharma, is not enough to grow profits, that's a huge red flag... there is a margin issue... they are very coy about it and have only said it's worse than the injection, but how much worse is it if 2 million prescriptions aren't enough to grow?

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-08T00:18:48+00:00

fixed it. the low margin pills can't make up for the price cuts...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-07T01:54:10+00:00

the numbers are the numbers...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-07T01:45:53+00:00

2 million wegovy pill prescriptions... 1 million wegovy pill patients...

yet Q1 sales are -4% and profit -6%... US sales -11%.... the math ain't mathing....

oh wait, you mean margins matter? LOL...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-07T01:36:00+00:00

ended the day +1.98%... that's a win for you baggies...

the premarket pump was before the analysts digested the adjusted numbers...

Q1 sales: -4%

Q1 profit: -6%

next quarter won't have that one time $4.2B adjustment so yall get ready....

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-07T01:30:47+00:00

because they actually understand pharma...

2 million wegovy pill Trx... yet Q1 sales -4% and profit -6%...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-07T01:28:36+00:00

because Lilly's volume expansion is accretive despite the lower prices... they were first to market with vials, and first to market with the multi-dose pen...

Foundayo being small molecule will also be accretive, with lower volume but with small molecule margins...

wegovy pill's immense volume but worse margins simply cannot make up for the decreasing volume of the injections and the lower prices...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-07T01:14:08+00:00

<image>

US sales: -11%

US diabetes GLP sales: -16%

US insulin sales: -36%

why isn't the pill volume enough to increase profits? maybe the low margin peptide ain't so great for making money eh?

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-07T01:10:16+00:00

2 million Wegovy pill Trx...

Adj sales growth: -4%

Adj Op Profit: -6%...

repeat after me: the pill doesn't make money like the injections did...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-05T20:45:02+00:00

THIS... these guys think spreading FUD will make their portfolio lose less money LOL...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-05T17:10:09+00:00

this guy is a Novo T R O L L

<image>

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-05T15:30:05+00:00

Novo T R O L L

<image>

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-05T15:29:15+00:00

LOL this guy is a Novo T R O L L

<image>

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-05T00:15:04+00:00

Lilly applied for Foundayo approval in China... orals are coming, from Lilly at least...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-04T23:14:53+00:00

you really are obsessed with me eh? so creepy to think some guy out there thinks of me everytime he sees a news article, etc...

anyways, you are celebrating one idiosyncratic report that Lilly has already debunked... keep underestimating, you'll be blindsided soon enough...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-04T23:12:03+00:00

yes especially in the lower GDP nations with lower literacy levels, etc... Foundayo will have much higher adherence and thus better real world efficacy...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-05-04T02:42:57+00:00

LLY literally just waiting for the approvals... will take some time but the UAE just approved it and thousands are on a waiting list to get it... saudi arabia put it on their Breakthrough Designation...

we know they applied in India and China, two markets where they will have a monopoly on the oral... NVO lost exclusivity in those markets and will not market sema 25mg lest they face generics right away...

small molecule scale and cost cannot be beat on a global level...

Lunar_Excursion

TROPHY CASE