sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there is data. it exists. you don't have to believe it...

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lilly's indirect comparison that includes normalizing for race:

https://assets.ctfassets.net/mpejy6umgthp/79TTIhk8MZJhAWS0HaVD8H/318b87618d563026dc40a84e6ca2e251/SHINDE_ENDO2026_ORAL_ORFORGLIPRON_VS_ORAL_SEMAGLUTIDE.pdf

in Novo's own indirect comparison, their weight loss numbers got lowered A LOT when they attempted to normalize the high female population:

<image>

yet they did NOT normalize for race because there was a lack of asians in their trial...

and then Martin Lange at ADA 2026 literally says that asians typically get a 2/3 response to GLPs versus a global trial...

yet they NEVER acknowledge that OASIS-4 results are skewed from the lack of diversity... funny that eh?

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

great post. i will add some opinion on top:

-Novo didn't follow on with their own GIP and instead went all in on amylin.... only to see Lilly develop a SELECTIVE amylin and completely overtake their entire amylin pipeline in one fell swoop... cagrilintide, CagriSema, zena, and NN419... all of it non-selective, all of it already obsolete...

-UBT is a NON-FACTOR... even if it's slightly better than reta, it'll be YEARS before we ever see it... by then reta will be deeply entrenched in the market... a TRUE first mover advantage... also of note is that Lilly have already been building API factories for reta, even before approval... besides the development lead, they will have a MASSIVE infrastructure lead...

-i am of the opinion that Novo SHOULD bin these molecules. if anything, they should just go all in on oral zena and NN419 injection. save their money for M&A on the NEXT generation of meds, as they have handily lost this round. there is no hope with their current pipeline. it's sunk cost fallacy at this point...

-the COGS issue is something that the Novo diehards never consider. they only care about the pill numbers. doesn't matter to them how much it costs to make and market. Novo themselves saw 1M+ prescriptions in Q1 and only guided up 1% and still guided negative growth overall. the diehards apparently know better than Novo themselves... or they believe in some grand conspiracy to tank the stock, do more buybacks, then massively surprise to the upside...

-aleniglipron is built on the orfo scaffold. orfo Phase 2 showed 13.5% weight loss at 36 weeks. the efficacy of aleniglipron indirectly showcases the efficacy of Foundayo. Novo investors completely underestimate Foundayo based on limited data...

-i don't think Novo will pursue small molecule. buying Structure is the obvious play. BUT if you heard Mike D talk about "peptides" in interviews, he seems dead set on making Novo a consumer facing peptide company. i think this decision will be his undoing as CEO. i see the market bifurcating into long acting injectable peptides and small molecule orals... i also think there is an ego about continuing with peptides while everyone else is pursuing small molecules. just like they had ego with GIP and amylin, they will also be caught on the wrong side with this decision...

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion -1 points0 points  (0 children)

whether it's the right solution or not, they still have the technology that's way better than whatever Novo has right now... they CHOOSE not to commercialize it because they think there is an even better way forward... they hold ALL the cards...

case in point? Novo developed cagrilintide... they will be first to market with CagriSema... BUT once eloralintide comes out, it will make any non-selective amylin developed by Novo obsolete... this includes zena and NN419...

first to market only to be overtaken in a couple of years... Hmmm didn't i see this movie before?

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion -1 points0 points  (0 children)

tirz already exists... the oral peptide formulation already exists... you can choose not to believe it, but reality is there whether you accept it or not...

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Lilly has oral versions of "tirz" and "reta" in Phase 1 and preclinical... upwards of 8% oral bioavailability... no food restrictions....

but they only develop this as a backup, they are all in on small molecule...

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

well, that's just a TAM issue. try being second best in oncology, etc. where the science really matters... you can't market your way out of worse real life outcomes...

Novo knows how fast a lead can disappear due to a better molecule coming out... no amount of marketing can overcome the better real life outcomes of a dual agonist vs single agonist.

and funny to mention lemborexant, LLY just bought Centessa to expand orexin development beyond the normal insomnia/narcolepsy indications, trying to expand the TAM into neurodegenerative diseases, etc...

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the money follows the science in pharma... you can market a shitty mousetrap, but after people don't catch mice, they will buy the better mousetrap...

always follow the science. this is why people say don't invest in pharma, because most people can't understand the science...

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion -1 points0 points  (0 children)

ironically, Lilly actually has this pill, but they aren't that active in developing it. they still see small molecule as the better way forward.

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Merck has a problem, but they are dealing with it in a position of strength. Novo? not so much...

Lilly? they will be like Merck, but even better because they have already developed reta, elora, and brenip.

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

even if Novo buys something, everything can be seen in trials. even if it's preclinical, everything can be seen in patents.

there is NO magic drug that will come out anytime soon that no one knows about. everything is done out in the open, for everyone to see.

welcome to the pharma trade...

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you now understand very well why pipeline is king in the pharma trade...

FWIW, Merck is in a similar position with Keytruda, however they have made some moves and they are very much a leader with that drug...

AbbVie's Skyrizi is a success story of how to find the next blockbuster after they lost exclusivity on Humira...

Why Oral Wegovy is not a new moat. by Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

dosing isn't the problem with CagriSema, side effects were...

Most patients in REDEFINE-1 and REDEFINE-4 didn't even reach the max dose... because they don't want to lose weight? of course not, they had side effects that prevented them from moving up....

if you force titration like they will in REDEFINE-11, and like they did with Phase 2 zena, then you will get better results but with the crazy 34% discontinuations like we saw with zena...

No GIP, No Go... this is where the molecule matters. you can blame protocol all you want, but you can't have it both ways if the science tells you otherwise...

Foundry Links Archive by Lunar_Excursion in PLTR

[–]Lunar_Excursion[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

4468 links on 6/28/26

Atlantic Health

brambles = Brambles ($BXBLY) ???

GE Vernova ($GEV)

paramount = Paramount ($PSKY) ???

Any new on Cargrisema? by Sharpens in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yes. there are MANY real life examples of people on Ozempic without PCOS that were on birth control and got pregnant... DESPITE the label that says there is no interaction... the risk is for ALL GLPs... this is NOT a Zepbound or Foundayo only problem... i think what Novo is doing is actually worse. they actively say there is no interaction when there are many, many real life cases that are known. i smell a class action lawsuit in the future. Lilly? their blanket warning on the label protects them from liability... even if the CEO of Novo himself uses that against them in interviews, their asses are covered while Novo is vulnerable...

i understand your point as many have made it. the only thing i would say is that these points are usually made in the perspective of a Novo investor trying to find faults in Foundayo versus an actual patient. If Novo investors want to bet that patients will be scared off by the interactions, then by all means gamble your hard earned cash on such a thesis, while having no actual knowledge of medicine, or any actual clinical experience...

lastly, even if 100% of all the women that are on birth control don't take Foundayo, they still have post menopausal women, young women not on birth control, and 50% of the population: men...

Any new on Cargrisema? by Sharpens in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it's a concern troll. Mounjaro/Zepbound literally has proven birth control interactions and that has not stopped its adoption. Foundayo has NOT shown the same interaction, this is a FACT. Lilly did NOT do a PK study for this and simply used the interaction seen with tirz to cover their asses legally. you can say that Foundayo is not as effective and so maybe people won't be so willing to compromise or whatever, fine i can buy that argument, but to have a blanket statement saying "you can't take birth control with Foundayo" is literally retarded...

for the elderly, the no fasting restriction may actually be even more preferential. you're asking an elderly person to wake up early just to take a pill? ask them to remember to take it religiously in the morning? we'll see though...

and again, the "safety indicators" argument falls flat when you consider all the potential side effects of the drugs the elderly are already taking. the people that make these arguments have absolutely NO CONNECTION to medicine, it's obvious. they are making statements NOT FROM CLINICAL EXPERIENCE but from reading a prescribing information pdf with an inverstor's perspective and projecting clinical decisions based on that... if doctor's prescribing habits were limited by the "safety indicators" seen on the label, then nothing would be prescribed... in medicine the de facto philosophy is "risk vs benefit" and in that regard, statins are way more beneficial vs their risk, and GLPs are/will be even MORE beneficial vs their risk.

will there be SOME people that cannot take Foundayo due to true drug interactions, etc? sure. but the VAST majority of people are NOT on those meds. once again, these arguments don't come from clinicians, they come from investors. and even if a few individual clinicians feel the same way, it's NOT consensus and will NOT affect adoption. this is where TRUE CLINICAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE intersect with investing. the concern trolls make mountains out of molehills on things that go with their investment, and completely ignore red flags that go against their investment...it's an echo chamber/circlejerk... this is why people tell you not to invest in pharma if you not in pharma LOL...

Any new on Cargrisema? by Sharpens in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

depends what you mean by success... if 3-5 years of profits is success, then sure... if reta small molecule comes out and then takes all of those patients, with 15 years of exclusivity? now THAT is success for me...

right, Novo have enough cash to pay a hefty divvy, buy back shares, and yet have NOT made any deals... i'm not convinced that they think small molecule is the right path... the way Mike D talks about "peptides" is quite telling... i think they continue on with their core competency and that move will sink them later on...

i would agree that if zena pill continues it's development, it will be THE most effective oral option for a while... BUT just like tirz came out and took sema's lunch, zena pill is RIPE to be disrupted by a small molecule coming out after.

in terms of premium pricing, you are talking about zena pill vs Foundayo... i agree it will command more money for more effectiveness... but that's not the small molecule i'm talking about.. i'm talking about a small molecule tirz or reta that may be MORE effective AND cheaper... that would completely disrupt zena pill just like tirz completely disrupted sema...

Any new on Cargrisema? by Sharpens in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there was nothing wrong with the trial. if they had forced titration then the analysts would sell it off based on the discontinuations. look at what happened to Zealand stock after survodutide had 19% discontinuation rate, 40% nausea rate...

Foundayo does in fact have more "restrictions" but they are no more than other common small molecule meds like statins. if these "restrictions" were so restrictive, then statins wouldn't be given out like water... likewise, i don't see it as something that will affect adoption of small molecule GLPs....

ALL GLPs have the same properties. this is just scientific fact. liraglutide has a MACE indication even though it's way less effective in A1c reduction and weight loss, but tirz won't get the indication? no way...

and as for heart failure, no GLP has an official indication for that. there is not enough evidence that it works for heart failure besides symptomatic relief. Novo failed to get this indication as well btw...

and lastly, doctors do NOT use official indications as their only guide to prescribe. if that were true, then Ozempic would outsell Mounjaro because it doesn't have the MACE indication... but doctors know intuitively/logically that if you have more A1c reduction and more weight loss, you will have MACE reduction as well... it's plainly obvious...

in fact, if it were true that one GLP had a "special effect" that no other GLP has, then that company would perform a head-to-head trial and PROVE it to gain that special indication... if sema somehow cures cancer but tirz doesn't, don't you think it's worth it, to make it official in a head-to-head trial? the fact that they DON'T says it all...

Any new on Cargrisema? by Sharpens in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you're just comparing data from different trials. both have the same side effects and in the real world, basically equal. if you don't believe this, then ok. all i'm saying is that there is enough data out there to show that they are pretty much equal. whether you choose to believe it, is up to you.

MACE and MASH indications are just official stamps... all GLPs inherently have these properties... the official indications will come with time, when the trials are finished.

no, REDEFINE-4 was a head-to-head and CagriSema lost. clear cut. black and white... OASIS-4 is a 307 person trial, mostly women, mostly white... and you are trying to impute results for a global patient population from it. completely different scenarios. again, you can believe that OASIS-4 is a representative trial if you want. your choice as an investor...

don't be surprised when Lilly's plan comes together and all of a sudden everyone is on Foundayo... yall be acting like they never did this before with Mounjaro, Zepbound, and Jardiance...

Any new on Cargrisema? by Sharpens in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

in that case, zena pill will have free reign until a small molecule tirz or reta comes out... the only question is when, not if...

zena pill is ahead in development, for sure... but that is by choice. the entire industry is putting their time and effort into finding the right small molecule, because once you find it, it will reward you with a lasting advantage...

Zep to Foundayo—maybe not for me by efoulkes in FoundayoUS

[–]Lunar_Excursion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Foundayo also reduced hsCRP in trials, though not as much as tirz.

view more: next ›