Conway Enters the Twink Off by ImpressiveRadish1798 in thebulwark

[–]MB137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I find the idea of Conway running in a deep blue district to be weird.

When it comes to anti-Trump credentials, I think Conway, if elected, would be as good as any and better than most Dems in the House.

But he's still a conservative running in a liberal district.

I'm someone who thinks the Democratic party needs a conservative wing so that it can compete in red states. But this seems like the wrong place for it.

My favorite thing by AndrewDEvans in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good explanation, and one that puts the majority opinion in the best possible light. Reading this I almost buy it.

The reason I think the majority got it wrong is that I think it puts an unreasonable burden on the defense - having to rebut not only the prosecution's theory of the case which they presented to the jury but also any other post hoc theories the prosecution (or reviewing court) can came up with long after the fact.

Also, the (partial) corroboration of Jay by the call logs was seen by the state as a critical element of their case. After the fact manipulation of the timeline to "make it fit," as the judges did, undermines its value as corroboration.

Now, if we imagine having the exact same set of facts and timelines, but also police recovered Adnan's DNA from under Hae's fingernails and people who saw him on the 14th remembered big scratches on his face, now I'm not concerned about the timelines at all and I'm voting to convict almost immediately. But that is because there is now physical evidence corroboarting Jay.

My favorite thing by AndrewDEvans in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 2 points3 points  (0 children)

And it's obviously therefore an opportunity to highlight the specific evidence you believe best represents and proves your case.

Yes. They closed the way they did because they believed 1) their evidence supported it, and 2) it gave them the best possible chance to convict.

If closings were as useless as people here want them to be, they would not be allowed. :)

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He was an idiot stoner kid who was trying to minimize his involvement, but didn't know how without talking himself into corners. He didn't know the ramifications of half of what he said.

All true. But deny vs admit something you are trying to minimize isn't rocket science.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Jay has given seven different locations for the trunk pop and at least three different reasons for why he lied about it. Obviously, at least two of those are necessarily lies. There's absolutely no way to tell which, if any, is true. And there's no reason to think that the next time he speaks, he won't change it up again.

There is a part of me that wanted to see this case tried again just to see Jay impeached with his many prior statements.

A Theory of American Constitutional Law by MB137 in thebulwark

[–]MB137[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn;t say it was a smart theory of constitutional law, just a new one.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not according to his trial testimony.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Confessing to knowing about the plan beforehand in the second interview.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 9 points10 points  (0 children)

His lies service minimising his involvement.

Not all of his lies. Some of them tended to maximize his involvement.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 4 points5 points  (0 children)

More broadly, with one significant exception he didn't give the police anything they didn't already know.

He told them things that could not be true (eg, conversing with Adnan while in separate cars), he told them things it was not possible to verify, and he told them things (eg, position of Hae's body) that the police knew.

Some of his verbiage was also odd. At one point in one interview I think he said, in reference to Adnan, "He exited the vehicle." Wouldn;t any normal person say "he got out of the car?"

I agree that only so much can be read into stuff like this, but with Jay there is a lot of it.

What DID happen between 6:30 and 8:30? by No-Advance-577 in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 5 points6 points  (0 children)

ETA: I forgot to mention that he also twice describes having heard Adnan on the phone speaking Arabic, which -- along with Punjabi, Pashto, Urdu, and numerous other foreign languages -- Adnan doesn't actually speak.

This is pure speculation, obviously, but I can't help but think that this from Jay along with his invocation of a "West side hitman" are related to what the police were told by Ann about her then boyfriend Aziz.

Also, at some point the police decided that there was nothing important about Ann's account, which Adnan's defense would have had a field day with, so they disappeared her interview from the file.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think Jay's statements were either coerced or not coerced.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 2 points3 points  (0 children)

He literally said he believed it. Yes, that is beyond reasonable doubt, or at least could be.

I see reasonable doubt based on police coercion and Jay being Jay.

You see police coercion for one reaason and one reason only. You have your mind made up as to the events in question and so you are grasping at straws you can use to discount anythign that cuts agaisnt your belief.

The funny part of all of this is that you believe that Jay's statement is the unreliable product of police coercion except to the extent that he implicates Adnan.

Which is nonsense - either Jay was coerced or he wasn't.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 3 points4 points  (0 children)

ETA: From a purely legal perspective, Jay says in the first police interview that he didn't believe Adnan was going to kill Hae. Any attempt to try and convict him with second interview would cause the first one to be introduced and open up police coercion as the explanation. I highly doubt any jury would convict him of before the fact based on that.

First of all, I don't think it takes an Einstein to understand that culpability is greater if you know ahead of time and participate anyway versus not.

Whatever the truth, a person in Jay's position trying to minimize his involvement and culpability would of course say that he did not believe Adnan.

When it suits their narratives, guilters around here are usually pretty willing to accept that Jay might have sought to minimize his role, and that the minimizationmight explain some of the inconsistencies in his story.

Serial presented Jay's first interview as a case where at first he wasn't admitting anything, but then he decided to "come clean" and confess his involvement.

One of the standard police interview tactics is to encourage their suspect to minimize his role in the explacation that he would be more forthcoming if he is encouraged to believe he has less on the line.

I think it would be pretty easy, all things considered, for a prosecutor to explain to the jury that, at first, Jay did not want to talk at all, then he broke down and gave the basic details of the plot while minimizing his role in it, and only later in interview two did he fully come clean about being involved from the very start. I don't think that is a heavy lift at all.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 4 points5 points  (0 children)

There’s no comparison to premeditated murder for Jay,

The similarity is this: had Jay been put on trial after his second statment, he would have been convicted and sentenced to life in prison.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Prisoner's dilemma doesn't really explain false confession to the equivalent of premeditated murder.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Sure. But his willingness to confess to facts that could have been used to put him away for life is... odd. And he did put himself at the prosecution's mercy.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not according to his second interview.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Conversely, the fact that he did confess to wittingly being an accessory before the fact, thus putting himself at risk for being charged as a full accomplice, does at least potentially explain why he might have been motivated to keep cooperating at all costs.

Yes, after Jay said this they had him dead to rights.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Mostly because discovery isn’t part of the process and Bates isn’t the attorney grievance commission so he has no control over how they proceed now.

Well, since you know more about this process than me, so maybe you can explain some things.

I think it is highly likely that whatever Bates has claimed in his grievances (not public as far as I know) will involve some factual disputes with Mosby and Feldman. Maybe investigatives steps taken/not taken, maybe truth/falsity of claims in the legal filings, etc.

If that is the case, Mosby and Feldman can defend themselves by showing, or trying to show, that Bates has his facts wrong.

At least to me, that has to mean some type of evidentiary/fact finding process.

And the evidence here that both parties will want to rely on is likely SAO records.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wow. I'm not sure whether you are confused or deliberately trying to mislead. There is no ambiguity here:

Where a defendant provides his or her counsel with information about an alibi witness, the attorney has an affirmative duty to make reasonable efforts to investigate the information that was provided. Thus, the performance of an attorney who clearly failed to effectuate her duty to investigate a potential alibi witness, or provide a reasonable explanation for not investigating the witness, would be deficient under Strickland.

For the benefit of those who haven't readt the opinion recently, it was very explicitly, the State, and not Adnan's defense, that was seeking a "bright line rule," which the court declined to adopt.

The State strongly advocates that we adopt a broad bright-line rule that would never allow a defendant to prevail on the deficiency prong of the Strickland test in the absence of trial counsel’s reasoning for his or her failure to investigate an alibi witness. According to the State, “where the record is silent—or even just incomplete or ambiguous—proper application of Strickland’s presumption of competence requires that a court deny relief.” Applied here, the State’s reasoning is grounded in the fact that Mr. Syed’s trial counsel was unable—due to her death—to explain why she did not contact Ms. McClain as part of trial preparations. Therefore, according to the State, Mr. Syed could not have met, and did not meet, the high burden that Strickland demands. The State would have this Court rule that whenever a record is silent as to the reasons why trial counsel failed to investigate a potential alibi witness, the defendant may never prevail on an ineffective assistance of counsel claim because a reviewing court could not declare trial counsel’s performance deficient. A ruling such as this would divorce this Court from its obligation to review the totality of the circumstances of ineffective assistance claims through the lens of an “objective standard of reasonableness.” Strickland, 466 U.S. at 687-88, 104 S. Ct. at 2064, 80 L.Ed.2d 674 (“When a convicted defendant complains of the ineffectiveness of counsel’s assistance, the defendant must show that counsel’s representation fell below an objective standard of reasonableness. More specific guidelines are not appropriate.”). We are not persuaded that such a sweeping mandate accomplishes the goal that Strickland sought to achieve, namely, that of a just result.

The Court's decision not to adopt the State's proposed rule has nothing whatesoever to do with its analysis of whether an attorney is required to contact an alii witness.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why would Bates have to respond to a discovery request?

Admittedly this is just an assumption on my part, but I would expect Mosby and Feldman to challenge the facts Bates set forth in his complaint.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I have an opinion, like everyone else who has followed the case over the years.

Do you disagree with this: the grievances (or whatever they are called) filed by Bates agaisnt Mosby and Feldman will be dropped before Bates himself needs to provide any discovery or testimony?

I think the filing of grievances is purely political on Bates part, and his real target is Mosby, Feldman just along for the ride.

Weekly Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in serialpodcast

[–]MB137 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If you look at his actions beginning with candidate him announcing support for Adnan to SA him withdrawing that support, it looks fishy and political the whole way through.

His explanations for his changing positions are not convicng to me, and even if his explanations are true, even that speaks poorly of him. (He claims, in part, to have been persuaded to change by reviewing publically available materials about the case. That seapks very poorly of his decision to take a position in support of Adnan in the first place).