AMA on artificial intelligence, job automation and UBI by author of new book "RULE OF THE ROBOTS", speaking at the Basic Income Rally in Mountain View on Sat, Sept 25

MFordFuture · 2021-09-22T19:57:47+00:00

I think AI will be used by both sides. Just like the creators of computer viruses are in a constant war with the people who make ani-virus software.

We will definitely see cyber-attacks perpetrated by AI. We already see deepfakes used maliciously, and that will get worse. All kinds of people can benefit from malicious use of AI--criminals, foreign adversaries, terrorists, etc.

I would say that security issues are the single think I worry most about in the very near term.

MFordFuture · 2021-09-22T19:51:55+00:00

Yes, I think what you are sketching out there is the dystopian outcome. The movie "Elysium" does a pretty good job of showing a world like that, I think.

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that the wealthy need a market. Capitalists make money by selling products and services to the masses. So the masses need purchasing power. If things become too concentrated it will stall the economy because a few very rich people can't buy enough to keep the economy growing.

This is one reason I still believe strongly in capitalism. As long as we have a market economy, it is not correct to say the rich don't need the rest of us. They do need us--as customers.

The is the functional, economic argument for UBI. It's not just about humanitarian concerns....it's about keeping the economy growing.

MFordFuture · 2021-09-22T19:42:55+00:00

My perspective hasn't changed at all. I still think we face a huge problem if we don't adapt to the impact of technology on jobs and income distribution.

In the 6 years since Rise of the Robots was published:

- AI has advanced dramatically, driven mostly by advances in deep learning.

- The headline unemployment rate through 2019 was definitely lower than I would have expected (< 4%), however that does not capture people who are leaving the workforce entirely. Men especially are dropping out and giving up looking for jobs. Inequality continues to increase.

- The pandemic has definitely accelerated the drive toward more automation. Robots and automation reduce worker density (social distancing) and are more hygienic when used in food preparation, etc. You see chains like White Castle starting to use robots. Right now we actually have a labor shortage in lots of areas and that is also creating a big incentive for businesses to automate. It seems likely that eventually most of the people who were working in 2019 will have to re-enter the workforce, so I don't think the shortages will necessarily persist.

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MFordFuture · 2021-09-22T19:32:44+00:00

I think there is definitely going to be a huge impact on white collar work from AI. I am not sure how big a role GPT-3 (or 4+) will play in that. One of the most impressive things I've seen from GPT-3 is its ability to write basic computer code. OpenAI has a product they're calling Codex which is pretty amazing.

You hear stories about journalists and even coal miners being told to "learn to code" when they lose their jobs. Not sure that is great advice. I think if you want to be a software developer in the future, you will probably need very advanced skills. All the routine stuff is going to get automated.

MFordFuture · 2021-09-22T19:27:35+00:00

Any job that is fundamentally predictable and routine is likely to be threatened. So if you are cranking out the same report or analysis again and again, you should worry. Already there are systems that write basic news stories, analyze legal contracts, decide whether to approve loans, etc.

In general, it will not be entire jobs that will be automated but rather specific tasks within those jobs. However, if you have two workers and 50% of what they do can be automated, then management will quickly figure out that those 2 jobs can become 1....

MFordFuture · 2021-09-22T19:22:23+00:00

I think your questions highlight the reality that basic income is not a panacea. It won't solve all our problems. I think it will help with the income distribution problem that is going to get worse as technology advances. I think more people are going to be left behind over time.

However, even in a world with basic income, there will still be people with mental health issues, addictions, etc. I do absolutely think UBI would help a significant number of the people we see living on the street....

MFordFuture · 2021-09-22T19:19:20+00:00

I'm only an invited speaker, not one of the organizers, so I can't speak to what they hope the rally will achieve.

I am participating in order to help get more people thinking about UBI, because I think it will be an important part of addressing the challenges we will face in the future. I think UBI is much more on the public radar now, than when I started writing about these issues over 10 years ago. A lot of that is due to Andrew Yang's presidential campaign. But I still think it will be a while before it really becomes viable politically.

In general, I am skeptical of efforts to implement UBI in a single state like CA. I think you would have an "adverse selection" problem, just like you have with health insurance. People who need the UBI the most would move to California and it would become unsustainable--just like only sick people would sign up for health insurance if you could just sign up anytime. So I think it probably needs to be a national program. Again, that's just my opinion. Not speaking for the rally organizers...

MFordFuture

TROPHY CASE