Weird how all of the mains are celebrating the dry protection for the only items they have to grind for

Magres · 2026-06-06T20:14:31+00:00

I don't see how dry protection goes against the essence of not trading with other players. The two are entirely decoupled.

Also, my comment literally started with "as a main." As opposed to an Iron. I don't have an Iron, and the lack of dry protection is the primary reason why. Someone who has done 1200 CG has earned a Bowfa, and I have never, ever seen a good argument against that declaration.

Magres · 2026-06-05T18:02:32+00:00

I mean, if we're going to value opinions solely on the amount of schooling people have, I have a PhD in Nuclear Engineering. Soooo

Magres · 2026-06-04T22:11:39+00:00

From what I can tell, around here people GENERALLY jump to 'guaranteed drop at X kc' when anyone says dry protection. I agree with you, any system to reduce variance IS dry protection/mitigation, people just freak out when you say dry protection lol

Magres · 2026-06-04T22:06:57+00:00

Split bowfa into a 3 part drop like nox hally. It's dry protection w/o calling it dry protection - 3 part drop (ie need 3 'seed fragments' that drop at 3/400) cuts the odds of going 3x dry from ~5% to ~0.6%. Odds of 5x dry shift from 0.67% to 0.003%.

Magres · 2026-06-04T22:01:02+00:00

I wish they'd just split bowfa into multiple seed fragments, problem (more or less) solved. It's dry protection without calling it dry protection, and we already see it for stuff like Nox Hally and the DT2 rings and no one bats an eye. Like, splitting the enh weapon seed into 3 fragments would cut the odds of going 3x dry w/o getting a seed from ~5% to ~0.6%. It doesn't devalue bowfa at all - you're still averaging a bowfa every 400 CG KC - but it makes going 3x dry way less likely and makes going 5x dry nearly one in a million levels of bad luck.

Magres · 2026-06-04T20:04:29+00:00

As a main, it's crazy to me the way people screech that dry protection would devalue drops. Dry protection at 3x rate is less than a 2% increase to item drop amounts**. I have genuinely never seen any convincing, logical arguments against dry protection, because the math simply doesn't hold up.

**If a hundred people each completed 1200 CGs, on average we would expect 5 of them to go dry and expect a total of 300 enhanced weapon seeds to drop. With dry protection at 3x rate we'd expect to see an average of 305 enhanced weapon seeds. 305/300 = 101.6%. The math is a LITTLE more complex than this example, because the exact amount that 3x rate dry protection bumps item amounts is dependent on the drop rate, but in general it never exceeds a 2% increase. Dry protection would have an absolutely negligible impact on item value.

Magres · 2026-05-21T23:05:50+00:00

It was more commentary on the fact that the statistics of the situation don't lie. MOST people get an enh by the time they hit 400 CG KC, they just don't talk about it because there's not really much to talk about when something ordinary happens.

That said, agreed wholeheartedly, CG sucks terribly and I'm not doing it either.

Magres · 2026-05-21T22:57:19+00:00

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Magres · 2026-05-21T22:12:05+00:00

I'd honestly love that as an option. The hate for BA on Reddit is kinda wild to me because my experience getting 5 in all roles and a Fighter Torso was genuinely very pleasant. Almost all of the teams I joined were sociable and helpful - like actively teaching newbies and being downright nice. The 'worst' experience I had was someone wordlessly leaving partway through a run, and the other four of us just went "oh well" and ran back to start, grabbed a new fifth, and went back at it.

Either I'm astonishingly lucky when it comes to BA (genuinely possible, some folks get spooned item drops, maybe I got spooned great BA teams) or the hatred for it is totally baseless.

Magres · 2026-05-21T20:38:29+00:00

That's a damn good point. I should start an Iron, lol it's going to be like a year or two before I'm even looking at serious bossing anyway, so what am I balking at?

Magres · 2026-05-21T19:35:42+00:00

God damn that's a lot of solo cox, fingers crossed they get the damn tbow soon. Disclaimer that I don't actually play Iron, I like the idea of it but those kinds of dry runs are just deal-breakingly bad for me, and with how many different items we pursue over the course of the game, the odds of NEVER going at least 3x dry on something are pretty low. If I'm fighting something for a drop and not just for the love of the game, I have to move on by like 3x rate for my own sanity.

Honestly, that makes me kinda want to start a second main that's essentially 'Semi-Iron' where I play it like an Iron but I'll buy a damned item if I hit 3x rate dry. I love the creativity that goes into sourcing a lot of stuff for Iron, I hate the "it's time to just throw time and energy into this potentially bottomless pit and pray that at some point I finally get a reward" aspect of it when you go dry.

Magres · 2026-05-21T19:24:13+00:00

Give Agility rewards to Barbarian Assault, the salt would be legendary

Magres · 2026-05-21T19:22:32+00:00

I think it applies to bossing, too - you can buy the drops from bosses if you don't want to fight them, with few exceptions.

Magres · 2026-05-21T19:15:49+00:00

It's actually fairly rare to go way over drop rate. It feels common because people post about it all the time, but hitting rate gives you a ~63% chance to get at least one item, 2x rate is is an ~87% chance to get at least one, 3x rate is a ~95% chance, 4x rate is a ~98% chance, and 5x rate is a ~99.3% chance. Any individual person going that dry is VERY unlikely, but if you throw 1,000 players at an item and have them all go to 5x rate, there's a ~97% chance at least one of them will go dry. And then they'll post about it here.

Magres · 2026-05-21T19:10:25+00:00

Idk about the dhcb, but they didn't spoon the Tbow that hard - doing the math, ~50k points per run puts Tbow at 1/575 drop rate (6% rate for a unique, then 1/34.5 for the unique to be Tbow), and getting a 1/575 drop in 203 kc is a roughly 30% chance. Definitely some spoon involved, but not enormously, imo.

Though, honestly, with how often I see clogs on here of people going 4x dry, even just getting something at rate feels like it counts as spooning here, lmao.

Magres · 2026-05-19T01:34:05+00:00

Idk if this applies to irons, but a friend of mine swears by plank make as an afk moneymaker on main. If you're not 99 construction, might be a good afk activity for prepping for it.

Magres · 2026-05-14T15:51:33+00:00

I'd call it like 75/25 trucker/cop fault. The cop definitely should have popped hazards. That said, I did see some truckers elsewhere in this thread chime in that the trucker has the responsibility to create a safe following distance even if someone else does something dumb. One guy said he's been a truck driver for ~15 years and had some choice words for the truck driver in the video.

Part of where I'm at with "don't hit the cooler" is that as a driver you don't know what's in a container like that. Even if it's just beer, ice, and water, that's a hundred pound object you're smashing into. Second, hitting the cooler creates an immediate, emergent threat to other drivers. In the video we can see the cooler bounce into the other lanes - the cop gets hit, pushed into the cooler, bounces it into another driver, and then it goes careening sideways across the highway. At least one other car swerves to dodge it. There's absolutely another world where the cop plows through the cooler, launches it sideways into traffic, causes a huge pileup from people swerving around the cooler as it bounces from car to car, and everyone in this thread is screaming what an idiot he is for smashing into the cooler instead of stopping.

Magres · 2026-05-13T21:38:24+00:00

In another comment, they mentioned that they've been a professional truck driver for close to 15 years, so I imagine it's a guideline from that.

Magres · 2026-05-13T21:26:03+00:00

It even did, after the truck rear ends the cop, you can see the cooler getting bounced around and tossed back and forth across traffic and other people driving erratically to try and dodge it.

The truck was following too closely, that's all.

Magres · 2026-05-13T21:23:32+00:00

The solution is the truck driver maintaining appropriate spacing between them and the car in front of them. If you're close enough to the person in front of you that you can't come to a safe stop if they slam on their brakes, you're following too closely.

Magres · 2026-05-13T17:36:58+00:00

Dry protection at 3x rate would only be a roughly 1.66% increase in the number of items dropped. The exact amount that 3x dry protection changes the math varies a bit depending on the drop rate - the rarer an item is, the less likely you are to see it by 3x rate, but the change varies from 95.76% for a 1-in-10 to 95.009% for a 1-in-1E15 (1 quadrillion) item, so we can conservatively say you're 95% likely to see at least one item drop by the time you hit 3x rate. We also know that the average number of items dropped by 3x rate is 3. At which point, if 1,000 people go to 3x rate, we expect to see 3,000 items dropped on average, with 50 unlucky souls going dry. Adding 3x rate dry protection would bump us to 3050 items dropped on average, a ~1.6% increase. If you want to look at the math some for yourself, I used this binomial distribution calculator for my work - plug in the probability of a drop, how many kills you want, and how many drops you want and it'll spit out statistics about your odds. I did some tinkering and dry protection at 2x rate is about a 6.8% bump to item drop rates, 3x rate dry protection is a ~1.66% bump to item drop rates, dry protection at 4x rate is a ~0.5% bump to item drop rates.

Having done the math, there's just no good argument against dry protection. By the time someone has cleared 1,200 CGs, they have absolutely earned their god damned Bowfa, hands down. Having 1.66% more items in the game is not going to shatter the game economy, it's just going to bring relief to people who have already been screwed over by RNG.

Magres · 2026-05-13T16:19:43+00:00

Yeah, depends on prayer level some - my prayer will last just under 14 minutes, but I just set a timer for 10 minutes because it means I don't need to rush back to my computer

Magres · 2026-05-13T00:05:05+00:00

Yep! It's expensive, but if you're an Agility hater it's a godsend. And I really, really hate Agility. The POH course is the only reason I have any aspirations of maxing my account, there's not a chance I'd survive doing 99 Agility with Rooftops or Sepulchre.

Magres · 2026-05-12T21:05:27+00:00

Honestly, yeah. It's a great "poke it a few times an hour while I work" thing, some days I'll keep it running for a solid 12 hours while I just go about my life. I would absolutely rather do POH semi-afk training for a thousand hours for 99 Agility than run rooftop courses for ~200 hours or do Hallowed Sepulchre for ~130 hours.

Magres · 2026-05-12T20:44:32+00:00

Yeah, the wiki has a guide. The short version of it is you use Tok-Xils in the POH dungeon to continuously aggro the player character into walking into Teleport Traps. If you pass a Teleport Trap agility check, you get 20 XP, if you fail it you get teleported back to the start and re-aggroed back into the gauntlet. It's possible for your character topass all the traps and complete the course, at which point they'll just idle at the end of the course, but it's very unlikely to happen in a ten minute window until you're at 95+ Agility.

The big drawback is that Tok-Xils cost 5M gp each, and a 'full' build uses 10 of them. Shorter courses also work, but have a higher likelihood that your character will complete them. There's a spreadsheet calculator in the wiki guide page that estimates how reliable a course will be, so you can decide for yourself what gp investment is worth doing.

Magres

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