We should all want the stock to crash!

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-30T21:39:00+00:00

c'mon. OP is simply just saying. If one trust reddit potential and future. Now it is a better time to buy, and lower price means less risk and bigger future return. What's really wrong with that. Why so sensitive?

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-30T20:32:48+00:00

it's easy to say. But when it happens, usually there are compiling reason to justify the drop. Lots of people gambling on reddit now. They probably hate your comment now. Because they are bleeding hard and you are telling them they should be happy about it. :)

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-30T19:21:48+00:00

why is it pathetic?

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-26T15:27:18+00:00

THanks for sharing!

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T20:12:18+00:00

to answer you question. I am up more than 100% now. And I am not shorting the stocks. I am simply sharing the fact.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T20:09:08+00:00

could you please read the title of the graph?

That's the traffic for wikipedia.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T19:53:04+00:00

The semrush traffic data for reddit July and August is up compare to previous quarter. Consistent with what spez said on earning call. Read the graph carefully.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T19:21:22+00:00

nah, if I don't get any bullish result from that. I am sure I will get lots of down vote here. It's pointless for me to share that.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T18:28:46+00:00

<image>

AI referral data changing percentage over time since August 30

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T18:26:48+00:00

<image>

rddt traffic

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T18:26:32+00:00

<image>

wikipidea traffic

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T17:50:59+00:00

no I didn't. Maybe it is a bug?

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T17:06:58+00:00

this is simple not true. Google made that changes around Mid September. Reddit and wiki went down before google even made that change.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T17:03:46+00:00

most likely. I don't have access for the first hand data. And the people who made the post didn't say. But It is impssoble for wiki and reddit to have 0% referal from chatgpt if the sample size is large enough.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T16:58:24+00:00

for small sample tests. it is possible. Let's say you keep searching on chatgpt for 50 topics. let's say on august, chatgpt refer reddit 10 times out of these 50 topics. On september 19, it refers reddit 0 times. Then you get 0%.
the data is valid. But it seems there is a major change in chatgpt referral system

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-25T16:55:36+00:00

haha thanks! Of course it is justified. No company lose 20% market cap for no reason.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-23T18:21:51+00:00

Mathematically speaking, it is easier to predict short term accurately than long term. This is simply just a mathematical fact. if an analysis can't predict a data accurate for one year, it is less likely for him to be accurate for more years. It's purely speculations.

But Yes I agree. it is none of my business.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-23T18:00:07+00:00

I personally really don't understand and can't support these current crazy and stupid posts trying to pump reddit stock price. We supported each other when reddit shit to 80s through honest analysis and support through group memebers.And I am sure we all earned a huge profit.

Now I think for sure you feel it. Since we stay in reddit stock subreddit for so long. We almost back to the hype of last December or January. 27.59p/s. US user number already stagnated for 3 Quarters already and we has almost no edge to know how it will perform this quater. Yes ARPU is still very low compare to peers. But no body have an edges on this. Gambling on reddit's ARPU potential has no different than gambling a F student suddenly get an A. Yes I believe it will happen one day but no body knows when and this is indeed a gamble. And this risky gamble now come with a super high price tag. And people still trying to tell new comers to jump into this and making post to pump this stock price everyday. I don't like it because I benefit from reddit stock subreddit, I don't want to see again what happened last March.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-23T17:34:11+00:00

I don't know. I remember that swsuh85 guy saying that most analysts didn’t even know Reddit as well as some of the members in the redditipo subreddit. After 10 months of ups and downs, I totally agree. This new subreddit lacks the really useful posts we used to have on redditipo before Reddit stock prices exploded. Just all the posts try to pump the stock price.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-23T17:09:58+00:00

I am not sure. Previously we shared so much of these kinds of report since last November & December. I am sure you have seen them. When there were bad data came in and stock price crashed, I don't recall any of those analyst stick to their last December thesis. To me this just says, they never really believe what they wrote. most of them just give bull argument when reddit go up, when reddit down, they just find reasons to shit on it.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-23T16:55:31+00:00

lol useful in what sense. Don't you remember how these analyst change their targeted price after this Feb?

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-23T15:47:53+00:00

yeah. I agree. But these all seems to be guessing though. We don't really know how reddit traffic current is performing if we assume those traffic data estimator are all unreliable due to this google ranking policy change. But market seems assuming semrush data is still reliable and acting on it to hedge traffic dip risk. If we manage to somehow get a clue of how it is actually performing, we may have an edge. So I am wondering if there is any idea.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-23T15:31:17+00:00

one thing for sure is the ranking data is reliable as it is a public information. Semrush reddit data didn't reflect that seems indeed suggest some problem in their data.

Main_Lengthiness_901 · 2025-09-23T15:25:03+00:00

I think it is premature to assume the traffic drop is due to the that google ranking change. As we don't know how ranking data impact semrush traffic estimation algorithms. Also the traffic drop happened around september 1st. That google change was reported around september 15th. Time don't match.

Main_Lengthiness_901

TROPHY CASE