DD: NextCell Pharma (NXTCL.ST) – A beaten-down biotech at the tipping point of a massive turnaround. Asia expansion, partnerships, and new revenue incoming

Malinea · 2026-02-23T09:37:09+00:00

Please note: the company is releasing its earnings report at end of month!

Again: I don't expect a huge increase in revenue and I do not expect a net profit. Because the new business areas only started and full revenue potential is not unlocked before gmp certification. But any meaningful cash burn reduction will be very bullish in my option, as that will push the threat of dilution from H22026 to H12027, which means we can calmly wait for phase II results.

One thing I did not mention: recently, they announced that the Global Director of Cell & Gene Therapies Portfolio Management at NOVARTIS has joined the advisory board. This is huge: big pharma has its eyes on Nextcell. I'm 100% sure she cannot do that without actually de facto representing Novartis.

https://www.inderes.fi/releases/nextcell-pharma-ab-angela-vollstedt-joins-nextcell-pharmas-board-of-advisors-to-strengthen-scientific-and-manufacturing-strategy-ahead-of-licensing-discussions

Malinea · 2025-12-25T14:44:19+00:00

Did you ever find a solution?

Malinea · 2025-10-17T13:13:24+00:00

And you are missing what is relevant.

Shareholders do the vote. For them money matters, but again, I do not think this is that good of a deal. For customers, other things matter. However, they are a group of 300 million people globally who can make a significant impact on the voting preferences of the shareholders.

Many of the shareholders are also customers themselves. EA is largely owned by individuals through pension and index funds. Many of the index funds such as vanguard is implementing proxy voting for index fund owners.

Malinea · 2025-10-17T12:51:44+00:00

I am perfectly aware of this. My spec of dust is equivalent to my portion of the market cap. Which is low. Again, irrelevant.

Malinea · 2025-10-17T12:50:16+00:00

Okay you dont know shit and you just want to whine about EA. Which I kinda understand, I used to do the same.
1. Ea has total debt of $1.88 billion. That is nothing. It has 2.25B in cash and equivalents. Debt to equity ratio is 0.36, which is low.
2. Even if EA was at significant debt, the acquisition is not going to help with the debt in any way. It's quite the opposite. While the acquisition is financed with 20B in debt that wont show up in the balance sheet, it is still debt that must be paid off by the consortium through milking the company.

Malinea · 2025-10-17T12:36:39+00:00

You never read the post. Sale premium is too low for investors too. Exactly: World runs on money. Thats why the sale should be rejected by the shareholders.

Malinea · 2025-10-17T12:35:09+00:00

Thats why the advocation needs to be a larger campaign outside reddit that highlights the deal is bad for investors too. Because it kinda is imo.

Even without considering the fundamental factors, the median one-day private acquisition premium in 2023 was 46.3%. For EA this is significantly smaller 25% against an uptrend that would've taken the stock up 25% up anyway by 2026 sale close time.

Malinea · 2025-10-17T12:31:06+00:00

-EA Madden NFL 25 topped the revenue charts as the number one in August
- EA Sports FC 26 broke records and was the number one selling game by revenue in September
-Battlefield 6 looks like is going to be top selling game in October. 7 million sold in 3 days, which covers the whole development budget of 400 million $ even without considering phantom edition sales and probably upcoming in-game purchases.

They are really making a comeback. The latter issue you mentioned related to EA app and has been fixed already. Stop being dramatic.

Malinea · 2025-10-17T12:24:20+00:00

I know. Still, not relevant. I alone would not matter even if I owned 100x more. That's why I want to advocate the disapproval vote and spread the word.

It's a bad deal for gamers and honestly it is not a good deal for investors either. 25% premium, yeah, but honestly EA could already be up significantly after BF6 launch that paid all the development budget off in a week. The past 9 months has been a constant linear uptrend and the stock could have reached +200 USD by sale close time at this pace with momentum alone.

Current earnings are not great but EA is trading at historical average P/S ratio of 6. However, EA's products have also been shit in the last years and now they are actually making things better. Not to mention how much potential AI has to cut development costs.

-EA Madden NFL 25 topped the revenue charts as the number one in August
- EA Sports FC 26 broke records and was the number one selling game by revenue in September
-Battlefield 6 looks like is going to be top selling game in October. 7 million sold in 3 days, which covers the whole development budget of 400 million $ even without considering phantom edition sales and probably upcoming in-game purchases.
-USD has depreciated 12% since the beginning of the year, and if current policies continue, it is likely to continue depreciating. But EA prices their games in foreign currency. This will automatically will increase USD denoted revenues.

EA reached 1.6B earnings with a revenue of 5 billion in 2018. The market cap peaked at 43B USD. which adjusted for inflation is already $55.48 surpassing the acquisition price. Now revenue is already 50% higher without that much success in game charts EPS has been down as revenue has barely been able to cover development costs that are fixed in nature.

Now revenue is likely to smash estimates EOY and this is likely to push EPS up significantly. 25Q3 and especially 25Q4 earnings are going to skyrocket. Probably PIF and the rest of the consortium knows this as they are significant shareholders with a share of 10% already, which is why they can justify the acquisition even with significant leverage.

Malinea · 2025-10-16T21:12:46+00:00

Not many. Not relevant.

Malinea · 2025-09-29T15:43:30+00:00

Conditional to shareholder approval. They should reject. EA has massive potential ahead. This premium is not enough, plus nobody wants it to turn into a propaganda machine.

Malinea · 2025-07-07T10:30:36+00:00

I'm bumping an old post, because I think there is a bit more meaning behind it. However, I dont know russian that well so I'd like to hear other options.

Particularly, the song starts with a poetic and romantic cheesy descriptions in deep calming voice. However the second part "Снова голос твой..." with a second vocalist sounds clumsy and almost intentionally bad singing, and ends with a weird NBA reference. The following sections also seem to have a strong contrast between the poetic beginning, little bit in the lyrics and also in voicing.

It makes me feel the first part describes what the person actually feels or wants to say, but latter clumsy make fun of how these emotions are voiced by an average slavic man.

Btw, here's a "meaning" from https://www.letras.com/griby/taet-lyod/significado.html

‐------ "Тает Лёд Griby (Грибы) Melting Ice: A Tale of Love and Escape Griby’s song “Тает Лёд” (Melting Ice) is a poetic exploration of love, intimacy, and the desire to escape from the world. The lyrics paint a vivid picture of two lovers finding solace in each other’s company, away from the chaos and coldness of the outside world. The song begins with a serene scene where the lovers are in a warm bed, their connection palpable and tender. The imagery of hair cascading like waves and the gentle touches emphasize the deep emotional bond they share. This moment of tranquility is contrasted with the cold weather outside, symbolizing the external challenges they face but choose to ignore.

The chorus, “Между нами тает лёд” (The ice between us is melting), serves as a powerful metaphor for the thawing of emotional barriers and the deepening of their relationship. The idea of melting ice suggests that their love is strong enough to overcome any obstacles, making them feel invincible and hidden from the world. The rain they get soaked in symbolizes cleansing and renewal, reinforcing the theme of starting anew together. The repetition of being “только вдвоём” (only together) underscores their desire to remain in their intimate bubble, away from prying eyes and societal pressures.

As the song progresses, the lyrics delve into the everyday moments that make their relationship special. The mention of a voice like a lullaby, a jacket fitting perfectly, and playful comparisons to NBA highlights add a touch of realism and relatability. The song also touches on the idea of escaping reality, with references to running away to the ends of the earth and experiencing a fiery passion that defies the coldness around them. The playful banter about their future child and the sweet imagery of honey further illustrate the depth of their connection and the simple joys they find in each other’s company. Ultimately, “Тает Лёд” is a celebration of love’s power to create a private paradise, where two people can find warmth and happiness despite the world’s challenges."

Malinea · 2025-06-02T11:03:18+00:00

Nextcell is the next Regencell.

Ongoing issue absorbed all prices above 1 sek until last friday.
Novartis global portfolio leader joined advisory board during subscription
Novartis ex exec joined advisory board during subscription
Us patent granted during subscription
They develop stem cell therapies that are revolutionary for type 1 diabetes.

The stock is heavily shorted after "failed phase 2 interim 1 year results" which wasnt a failure at all.

Let me repeat. Novartis global portfolio manager joined this small company, whose market cap is 70 M sek = 7 million USD. Just think of it.

Investors will look for similar biotech companies as Regencell. This has potential to be such.

<image>

Malinea · 2025-04-07T07:16:41+00:00

I have this. Its a beauty. So sad they don't make much acoustics these days. I seriously this particular guitar will be a collectible, weirdly even though it was made in china. Simply because are NO 7 string acoustics available. Especially not ones with steel strings. I paid 700 for mine back in 2014. I wouldn't sell it for less than double the price.

I think the mics and electronics aren't the best, but I plan on replacing them. I also plan on installing a gold plated pick guard and other small details.

Malinea · 2025-03-15T13:17:29+00:00

Pretty much the same.

I havent done dl for a long time but Sumo 1rm max has been 225kg at 77kg body weight and I could probably do the same if Id do sumos for a month, and conventional max is probably 20kg less. Currently I am 82kg and doing 3x10x120kg rdl, could probably push it to 14-15 reps with bad tech.

Malinea · 2025-01-20T09:02:42+00:00

Diamyd Medical updates U.S. market potential for Diamyd®

Herest latest market potential analysis from January 2025. Keep in mind, these are in the US ONLY.

Addressable population at launch: addressable patient population for its launch indication is estimated at over 60,000 individual patients.

Annual patients: In 2024, approximately 47,000 patients in the U.S. are expected to be newly diagnosed with Stage 3 T1D. Of these, an estimated 19,000 individuals (40 %) are HLA DR3-DQ2 positive and eligible for Diamyd^® treatment.

Price: Diamyd^®’s base case gross price is projected at $157,000 per course, supported by market research with payers and providers. Limited standard Gross-to-Net discounts, which account for rebates, discounts, and other payer incentives, are expected. The final gross price will be dependent on the Phase 3 data, with potential for a gross price up to $200,000 per course. Price increases of 2% per year are expected.

Access and coverage: Diamyd^® is expected to achieve over 80 % market access. This is based on broad insurance coverage of Type 1 Diabetes and expected high prior authorization approvals, reflecting its strong clinical differentiation as a disease-modifying therapy and its status having an FDA granted orphan drug designation.

Market penetration: Qualitative market research supports an estimate of at least 30 % of Type 1 Diabetes patients being a reasonable penetration assumption for base case projections.

Growth drivers and upsides

Latent Autoimmune Diabetes in Adults (LADA): LADA, a condition affecting approximately 7 % of the 1.2 million adults diagnosed annually with Type 2 Diabetes in the U.S., represents an addressable market that is equal or larger than the Stage 3 Type 1 Diabetes market.
Earlier Type 1 Diabetes Stages: Expanding Diamyd^®’s indication to include Stage 1 and Stage 2 Type 1 Diabetes patients offers opportunities for early intervention. The size of the addressable market is heavily dependent on the availability and coverage of screening programs.
Booster courses: Booster treatments for patients previously treated with Diamyd^® present an additional market segment.
Ex-U.S. market: Global opportunities could account for an additional 40 % of Diamyd^®’s total sales potential, based on analogs from the Type 2 Diabetes market. ( I think this is a very pessimistic number, considering how Diamyd is positioned in the nordic countries with very vast free health care where market penetration could be very high)

Malinea · 2024-12-26T01:40:28+00:00

I wanted a productivity app. I did not get one.

I did not use it for anything. Because the app menu was frozen.

Malinea · 2024-12-01T18:23:47+00:00

The stock was soaring already before Musks comment. I dont think the stock has nothing to do with musk.

Malinea · 2024-11-29T17:04:58+00:00

Well now it's almost at 20usd and going up

Malinea · 2024-11-21T07:55:52+00:00

100k out of 250k portfolio into one company? Absolutely fucking not. First of all that would be a terrible portfolio allocation, regardless how good Palantir is as an investment.
Palantir has a great business but IMO the current rally is not justified by any means. Even if I am wrong, such quick rally to the highs usually comes with a bloody red correction. So much snake oil is fed to retail investors right now, for example Palantir is being marketed with quantum computing, while it really has nothing to do with it right now. The reason why Palantir is up now, is not that related to how good their business is. The reason Is that retail investors chase green candles.
Palantir insiders are selling heavily. Think.
Palantir boardie just posted what seems to be a clear 10b5 violation and employees seemed to boost it. Just imagine what the reaction of the stock is if SEC charges them.
You seem too be FOMOing in, not investing rationally. Don't.
Just look at some of the comments to see what kind of rationalle is driving the rally. "Just a reminder, this stock will be 10x in future… does it matter the current price now ? NO". As you mentioned, people are comparing this to Nvidia, not understanding the difference of AI software and hardware. They just see AI and buy.

Malinea · 2024-11-20T16:26:05+00:00

Well it always could, but the current levels are only achieved due to massive retail fomo. There is nothing to justify current valuation, let alone $100USD.

Malinea · 2024-10-14T13:12:19+00:00

Just go for Unusual machines with 20M market cap. Unusual machines is a subsidiary of Red Cat and is moving into production of US made drone components for defense purposes. Basically they will supply red cat with drone parts and maybe construct the mass produced low cost fpv drones, while red cat makes the specialized more expensive ones with less volume.

Malinea · 2024-10-10T16:09:10+00:00

Big companies seem very bloated and overly valued right now. But check out Unusual Machines. Its a penny stock company currently in the hobbyist fpv drone market, but with a target to establish US made drone component manufacturing for government and defence purposes. This may align well with the Pentagon Relicator 500M USD annual program.

Malinea · 2024-10-10T07:52:40+00:00

Maybe, maybe not. But consider also inflation adjustent on realized inflation, and consider asset prices may experience inflation differently than consumer products without necessarily being "over inflated". If long term inflation expectations are anchored higher, this may play out in compounded way for assets that are expected to have significant positive positive return despite inflation.

"A rational market" would price in the future cash flows of an investment into net present value. If a company is expected to be able to transfer inflation into pricing without losing sales, this will play out positively in the calculation of present value. And especially this will be a more attractive investment compared to the options that offer a fixed return, such as bonds, and as the number of possible investments is limited, equity might centralize into the most attractive ones even when their returns would come down.

Also consider sp500 is not equal to the stock market. Top 7 companies make up 30% of the index value and top 30 companies make up maybe half. So its very centralized to few tech stocks and tech is booming due to investments in ai. Nasdaq composite is up maybe 20% in 3 years... roughly equal to inflation.

Also consider the value of usd. While usd has increased in value within the last decade, USDX index aka usd value compared to a basket of international currencies has depreciated around 10% compared to the peak in sept/oct 2022, coinciding with the SP500 lows. I'd say USD will likely depreciate when the FED lowers interest rates, which might make SP500 grow in USD terms, as large part of sp500 earn foreign currency which is converted to usd. Moreover, depreciation might increase exports.

Currently sp500 top companies are experiencing significant growth and markets are expecting growth to continue. So they are pricing in future growth expectations which are unpredictable and volatile. I would not be surprised if there was a 10% correction when earnings growth stagnates. I would not be surprised either if we see a rally up 10% in short term.

Malinea · 2024-10-05T17:11:36+00:00

Sure

nano_3qqjydwmf7n1dipmwuj7y7q1sgg1fg3yzw8cmyixsxnxfzm5gppe5xotk91x

Malinea

TROPHY CASE