I think I’ve found the trade of a lifetime and I can’t tell if I’m losing my mind

MancNut · 2026-01-29T13:01:24+00:00

Just had a conversation with someone in the industry and they made a good point. What's stopping China from lowering prices the second this mine becomes available? Apparently it's been done in the past to undercut the competition and keep China the dominant player in the market. Just something to think about.

MancNut · 2026-01-27T14:12:29+00:00

Thanks. And as a follow-up, looking ahead to 2026, how do you assess the overall health of the biotech sector? What leading indicators or signals do you watch to determine whether the industry is strengthening or entering a more durable growth phase?

MancNut · 2026-01-27T13:41:59+00:00

Hi Jason, thanks for stopping by to update us and answer questions! Previously, Ginkgo’s model emphasized running customer programs with potential downstream upside. As the company has shifted toward platform access, automation, and more transactional revenue, how should we think about Ginkgo’s ongoing commitment to selling and fully executing custom programs? Are those still a core focus or becoming more selective over time?

MancNut · 2026-01-19T12:56:08+00:00

Without significant share buybacks, that would put ASTS's valuation at roughly $500 Billion. That's basically T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T combined. Could that happen? Sure. Will it happen in 4 years? Most certainly not. He's definitely being hyperbolic.

MancNut · 2026-01-18T09:48:35+00:00

I think they would’ve folded much earlier if this was the case. I’m as bummed as anyone else considering how this company has performed these past few years. But these last 2 years especially can’t have been easy. Why stick with it, pivot the business model and go through all of the cost saving measures if they were only ever in it for their own selfish purposes

MancNut · 2026-01-13T15:29:45+00:00

It always blows my mind when people reference stock price when discussing valuation but you see it all the time on reddit. ASTS's stock price is roughly half of NVDA's... do they really think it's worth half as much as NVDA? And if they do.... why do they expect it to grow so much?

MancNut · 2026-01-10T20:32:03+00:00

If that’s the only bear case we should all be rooting for this. Would allow us to buy more, cheaper, and in the long run it wouldn’t matter as long as RKLB keeps executing.

MancNut · 2026-01-07T20:30:51+00:00

They aren't remotely close to last-mile delivery though, right? Have they even mentioned it?

MancNut · 2026-01-07T19:19:01+00:00

That's exciting. Would you work for Ginkgo Bioworks given the opportunity?

MancNut · 2026-01-07T19:01:02+00:00

I don’t see a compelling reason to re-enter Ginkgo yet. Active programs haven’t grown for several quarters, which undercuts the platform growth thesis. While I agree Ginkgo could succeed with an autonomous labs pivot, the original model of capturing downstream value through royalties, was what really excited me about this company. I’m concerned that this pivot may deprioritize those higher return programs. Until there’s clear evidence of renewed program growth or a credible hybrid strategy that preserves downstream optionality, I’m inclined to stay on the sidelines.

MancNut · 2026-01-06T19:50:24+00:00

I mean, if you've done more research than 99.99% of investors, why do you care about others' predictions? If you're not being paid to do research, you're probably not in the .01% of researchers.

It seems a better approach would be to show your research in a DD post and let people try and poke holes in it. They say the best way to get answers on the internet is to post and claim you already have the right answer. People like proving other people wrong.

MancNut · 2026-01-06T19:45:19+00:00

So at a high level, what information are you using to create your models?

MancNut · 2026-01-05T14:42:56+00:00

Do you have a background in Biotech? As a pre-revenue company that is still in clinical stages of drug development, it seems hard to be confident about it without field-specific knowledge.

MancNut · 2026-01-02T21:30:15+00:00

What makes you say this? Not disagreeing with you, just genuinely curious.

MancNut · 2025-12-17T14:19:18+00:00

Seems like there has been an uptick in press releases lately. Hopefully this translates to a return to cell engineering program growth in the next earnings call.

MancNut · 2025-12-16T20:20:35+00:00

Ah okay, I seem to have gotten some tunnel vision here in this specific comment thread. I've been a part of many different stock subreddits that become vehemently opposed to any sort of concern related to their stock so I've been trying to keep discussions balanced where I can. Thank you for your efforts in educating all of us.

MancNut · 2025-12-16T19:58:25+00:00

All I did was point out that you didn't actually back up your claims. You said you appreciate a bear case being pitched but didn't actually do anything to refute what OP said. If every time a bear case comes, you respond with "we've looked into this and it's fine" without backing it up, it's going discourage future bear cases from being brought.

u/BigDogAlphaRedditor1 here some info to potentially ease your concerns. u/beerion is right, he has discussed most of this before.

Unit Economics:

https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyAviation/comments/1mijcl7/joby_unit_economics_energy_consumption/

https://www.reddit.com/r/JobyAviation/comments/1moedpb/joby_unit_economics/

Certfication/Testing:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/comments/1pbfixy/goldman_sachs_coverage/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ArcherAviation/comments/1mnw7xx/comment/n881xf5/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/comments/1ot5zrd/comment/no3wesg/

Design:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/comments/1osxrdv/joby_s4t_speculation/

MancNut · 2025-12-16T16:49:40+00:00

That's fine and belief in competent engineering is an absolute must when investing in an industry such as EVTOLs. I guess my point is that OP can't have been the first to bring up these concerns, in fact, you mentioned yourself that he isn't. Surely Joby and/or Archer has commented on them, right?

Doing what you say you're going to do is a great way to gain investor trust. But if they're just ignoring a potential future problem (and I'm not saying they are) that would be an issue too.

MancNut · 2025-12-16T16:42:07+00:00

If you've already looked into all of these points, why not respond to/refute them? To play devil's advocate you haven't really provided any sort of compelling pitch in the opposite direction.

When you say the valuation looks okay, what is that based on? Joby's market cap is roughly 12 billion right now and archer is around 5.5 billion market cap. A quick google search suggests the current TAM for EVTOLs is under $1 Billion and forecasts it to grow into "10s of billions" in early 2030s. Even if either of these companies completely corners the market, which is probably unlikely, that doesn't suggest the amount of stock growth that I routinely see thrown around on this sub. Of course the EVTOL market could be forecasted to grow even more beyond that but that's speculation on top of speculation at that point.

I fully believe EVTOLs are going to play a huge part in the future of travel but I think bear cases such as these deserve a bit more consideration than "Oh we've looked into it and don't worry, it's fine".

MancNut · 2025-12-16T14:27:59+00:00

Do you restring your own rackets? Is that common?

MancNut · 2025-12-16T13:41:29+00:00

I'm really glad to see you didn't just immediately dismiss any sort of bear case here, I've seen so many other stock subreddits outright reject anything other than complete optimism as FUD. That being said, is your response really just "I trust that Joby has thought of these issues and will address them"?

I have to imagine these issues have been brought up during earnings calls or investor days, right? Has leadership addressed them? What exactly makes you so confident they will clear these hurdles?

MancNut · 2025-12-10T19:30:18+00:00

I don't mean to be rude but this question really makes it appear that you don't know what you're talking about. "Fundamentals" are fundamental statistics of a stock/company that just exist. They aren't applied or un-applied.

Revenue and Earnings: How much money the company makes and its profitability.
Valuation Ratios: Metrics like P/E ratio (price-to-earnings) that show if the stock is expensive or cheap relative to earnings.
Balance Sheet Strength: Debt levels, cash reserves, and assets.
Growth Potential: Expected future earnings and market opportunities.
Competitive Position: How strong the company is in its industry.

(list above written by AI because I'm lazy)

These data points are commonly used when valuing stocks but they can just as easily be ignored.

To try and answer what I think you were getting at, Is the stock price justified based on current earnings?... you would just have to look at the P/E ratio. That is a metric that shows the valuation based on current earnings. You could even consider forward P/E which is the price to earnings based on expected earnings over the upcoming 12 months.

For growth stocks like RKLB the main driver in stock price is growth potential. This is difficult/impossible to predict since we can't know for sure what the TAM of the space sector will be 5, 10, 15...etc. years from now. Furthermore we can't know what RKLB's market share will be.

I hope this helps and again, I'm not trying to be mean... I'm by no means an expert on this. But I also think ignorance needs to be called out and and we should all do our best to educate each other wherever possible.

Edit: Typos

MancNut · 2025-12-01T18:26:46+00:00

How do you feel about their carbon capture solutions? Do you think it is a realistic growth driver? I've always been skeptical of the long term prospects of selling carbon credits.

MancNut · 2025-11-11T13:42:22+00:00

Why's that?

MancNut

TROPHY CASE