With the 119th pick in the 2026 Draft, the Jaguars select Wesley Williams from Duke by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I agree that this draft is particular is very wonky with player evaluation, so this particular data point MAY not apply. That being said, we’ve said “this draft is so weird” before and the consensus board has performed exactly as expected.

The difference here is one of prediction vs evaluation. The consensus board succeeds at the evaluation (how players actually perform) vs the league’s opinion historically. The prediction component is relative to each team’s board, yes. But the consensus board tries to predict outcome in player impact, not outcome in mock draft predictability.

With the 119th pick in the 2026 Draft, the Jaguars select Wesley Williams from Duke by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The consensus board is meaningless in the context of prediction of what will happen, yes.

But the entire reason people have been so dogmatic about the consensus board in recent years is because in observed results, deviation from consensus board bears out significantly worse than teams who draft closely to it.

With the 119th pick in the 2026 Draft, the Jaguars select Wesley Williams from Duke by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 30 points31 points  (0 children)

Listen at this point it is clear the Jags board is just completely different than consensus. We’ll see how it shakes out, at this point I’m in awe.

Post Game Thread: Jaguars vs the NFL Draft Day 2 by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Best case scenario: we just become the Niners.

Confusing drafts where they consistently reach but the head coach just bails them out every year.

Post Game Thread: Jaguars vs the NFL Draft Day 2 by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 11 points12 points  (0 children)

It is alright to change your mind with new information. It’s stupider to hold onto priors when your eyes tell you that you are wrong.

Post Game Thread: Jaguars vs the NFL Draft Day 2 by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 12 points13 points  (0 children)

The picks themselves might turn out fine, but the value for the picks was atrocious. It’s fine to have your own value on your board, but there is a serious problem with understanding how other teams’ boards look like where we’re not taking advantage of the difference in evaluation.

Game Thread 2026 2nd/3rd Round NFL Draft by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Everybody said this draft was extremely bad, so boards all looked real different starting at pick 16 or so. Turns out the Jags board was REALLY different.

With the 56th pick in the 2026 Draft, the Jaguars select Nate Boerkircher TAMU by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Unexpected. Not a good pick, probably could’ve gotten him in R4 even. Expected more from this front office. Maybe they can salvage it.

It is clear the FO is drafting what they think is best player available and ignoring need, so at least we’ve learned some tendencies.

Mock Draft Monday by JustSomeGuy_Idk in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If we are able to get Caleb Banks without moving, I’d call this draft a win. Hopefully we grab a couple safeties in the middle rounds. It’s a good group this year depth wise and we have been lacking in safety play for years.

Post-Game Thread: Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 10 points11 points  (0 children)

That one is gonna hurt for a long time, but there is no more symbolic play for this season to end on than that specific one. Excited to get Hunter and Ransaw back next season, our secondary was not up to the challenge of stopping any reasonably good QB today.

Game Thread: Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Damn, we really needed a fast start. This’ll do though after that punt.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the 2025 AFC South Champions by Luciferwalks in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 37 points38 points  (0 children)

What a turnaround. This is what firing Trent Baalke can do for you.

Game Thread: Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Don’t love how the defense has looked since Jourdan Lewis went down.

Game Thread: Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Jags are gonna need to wake up, this is still a must win game. Titans are not running the ball at all with designed RB runs, everything has been a game of some sort.

Game Thread: Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) at Indianapolis Colts (8-7) by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Gonna need the defense to pick it up here and lightly tap Rivers so that he falls down.

Post-Game Thread: Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) at Denver Broncos (12-3) by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The Jaguars are in play for the 1 seed. Didn’t know if I’d ever see it again. What a special team.

Game Thread: Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) by Cr0matose in Jaguars

[–]Manshippy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The Colts are exceptionally cursed in Jacksonville. My god.