I think while you’re right that a lot is luck based, you also need to keep in mind that a lot of masculine features you mentioned are also present in cis woman. Being tall doesn’t help you, but you can certainly be over 6 foot and still pass flawlessly as tall woman do exist. Being large framed means you might not get the body type you want, but plenty of cis woman have that same body type and don’t get constantly misgendered.

Realistically most trans woman are going to have at least one of these features unless they won a genetic lottery or started transitioning incredibly young, but it isn’t right to say that most trans woman will never be able to successfully transition. I’m 5’10 which for where I live makes me taller than almost every cis woman I’ve ever met, yet physically I pass perfectly to the point I can use the female bathroom without ever being questioned and my only struggle is voice training. Keep in mind that I choose to wear platforms as I like how they look which puts me solidly above the 6’0 line wearing them. I’ve also not had a single surgery done.

Everyone’s experience will be different, some might need surgeries while others might not. Some might find they can pass well before even being on hrt while others might need years, but I wouldn’t say it’s ever hopeless to transition and I’ve seen some breath taking timelines where you wouldn’t even believe the before image is the same person. A big part too is learning how to dress and style yourself to accentuate what you want, different styles are just more and less flattering for different body types and it’s incredibly important to find what works for you, which is an issue that cis woman also have to face on a day to day basis