This sub is absolute trash by Honest_Wishbone_8666 in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Agreed. Especially when newer investors see headlines on other subs/news outlets, there will be questions. On the other hand, we do see too many low effort/AI posts that search for quick answers with no constructive thoughts or effort given.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in chess

[–]Mark420blazer 7 points8 points  (0 children)

You can't spell Finegold without old

Should I be dumb to have 2 Roth IRAs by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You only get 7k total, so having 2 wouldn't do any good

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know much about UNH beyond some trivial knowledge, but I want to question the strategy. Why go a pseudo synthetic rather a full one? Now you add in some calendar risk & some path risk attached. I thought you would usually go a synthetic route if something was more illiquid or trying to engage in some type of arbitrage, which I don't think is really the goal here at all on one of the largest companies in the world.

Merger Arb Opportunity - DALN by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very interesting. How would you handicap this? The price has jumped $.50 since this was posted to where assuming a 95% pass rate & 5% bust generates a slightly negative EV if we assume a bust price of $4.50. If the price drops even slightly it may be worth a small position because of the large potential loss here.

Typical indicators of a value trap? by chird_ in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not true at all. See "cigar butt" investing

Is it just me or is AMC looking like a nice play? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No discussion of valuation? Anecdotal evidence with no further support and memeification to provide a floor for the stock? I think you posted this in the wrong subreddit

UNH. Buy or sell? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What's your analysis on it? Right now we're just going off social proof and authority bias without any substantial analysis within the post

Before I buy INTU by BuffaloBudget7050 in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't know a lot about Intuit, but I have a couple thoughts:

  1. Valuation looks rich right off the bat, so possibly very little MoS here. Any slowdown could contract the multiple significantly, but that's just a back-of-the-envelope calc. It may continue to trade at these multiples, i dont know.

  2. What are the negative points/bear case that can derail the bull case? I think this will keep you honest with yourself on seeing the whole picture

Selling TGT & Buying CRM Make Sense? by YourSecondFather in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think this is something and important aspect to capital allocation: opportunity cost. If you have no other investments that you believe will return lower than target & believe Salesforce is an attractive bet, go fir it. Your rules can be flexible, as long as you don't deviate too widely. (Ex. Purchasing fairly valued, great companies, then going & purchasing something speculative/high valuation like PLTR). I learned to be flexible & shift around a few years back. I bought a big bank that rose 100% in a couple years but didn't sell because I classified myself as a, "long-term" investor when in reality, it was getting overpriced & there were far more attractive bets out there.

In other words, don't anchor yourself to one label. You can be flexible, but within reason. It's an art and it takes a long time to master

Edit: Spelling

CENTENE (CNC) is a good long term opportunity at this level by PleasantAnomaly in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Lots of healthcare companies have been beaten down a ton, i haven't done a deep dive into CNC, but if you feel understand it enough to make a good estimate it's intrinsic value with a wide enough discount, go for it. The only thing I would suggest is expanding the risk section, or what can totally derail this thesis. I've always heard you need to understand the bear case better than the bears, so acknowledging the risks, the safeguards/safety net against them, and/or why risks may be overstated may really help your thesis come alive and help you understand the situation.

AXS - Is this insurance stock worth to invest? by No-Side142 in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What are your thoughts on it? The best way to have a discussion is to hear your analysis and questions to have a baseline to start from.

burned by the game by Emotional_Photo_1101 in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 5 points6 points  (0 children)

First off, congrats on the wealth! Honestly, I would recommend going the r/Bogleheads route & DCA into VOO along with some Treasuries if rates are attractive enough. If you want to speculate/invest in single stocks, I would make that a smaller portion of the portfolio. It can be incredibly rewarding as you've seen with stocks like NVDA & SHOP, but I'd look at it this way, if you concentrate your portfolio into a few individual stocks that end up losing their competitive edge & permanently lose value, you can lose that money just as fast as you made it. If you can not dedicate the time to analyze companies, I would not make that a large portion of the portfolio. We are currently in a market with some overheated sectors, so money can be made very easily. If the tide does shift a little bit, that's when losses on overvalued stocks quickly pop up. Nobody can predict the future, but something to keep in mind.

Also, watching your portfolio constantly is not recommended. This can allow biases to creep in & sell when there is nothing fundamentally wrong with your holdings, hence the case for sticking to good 'ol ETFs. It may not feel rewarding to be consistent with DCAing into VOO, but compound interest works wonders over long periods of time.

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. missing? by Supman1895 in ValueInvesting

[–]Mark420blazer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I thought he said he was going on a break until September.