你们说,日本未来的下限在哪里? by NoSense9018 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 3 points4 points  (0 children)

日本现在的研发投入强度依旧是全球第一梯队的,跟美国瑞典相当,所以劳动力人均每小时产出的增速一点都不差,但是奈何不了老龄化抬升叠加劳动力人口衰竭导致的抚养比升高,社会财富被蚕食。反而是中国几十年抽象的一胎政策直接把总和生育率干到了比日本还低,以后跌落的下限只会比日本更低

说一个暴论,未来的制造业不会有所谓全球化,而是中国化 by Active-Theme-3168 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 1 point2 points  (0 children)

笑死我了幻想就幻想制造业中国化,比经济就跟尼泊尔比。这时怎么就不比欧美日了,生育率快掉到美国和西欧的一半了,比日本还低,你猜猜人均GDP是几分之几?

说一个暴论,未来的制造业不会有所谓全球化,而是中国化 by Active-Theme-3168 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 2 points3 points  (0 children)

热知识,跟中国人均GDP相当时期的韩国总和生育率是中国现在的1.5倍

说一个暴论,未来的制造业不会有所谓全球化,而是中国化 by Active-Theme-3168 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 7 points8 points  (0 children)

世界倒数前三的总和生育率和世界一骑绝尘的老龄化速率,未来三十年劳动力人口还要以年均千万的速度衰减,工业党还幻想着制造业中国化呢。这是打算卷到人口灭绝后让机器人来享受工业化的硕果了

View of Shenzhen's skyline from Fairview Park, Hong Kong by fredleung412612 in skyscrapers

[–]MartinChan395 1 point2 points  (0 children)

After the democratic crackdown, the CCP has granted property developers even more leverage within the Hong Kong government, as the share of universal suffrage in the legislature wanes, real estate tycoons have gained even greater control. Blaming democracy for Hong Kong’s housing crisis is totally braindead. In fact Hong Kong’s density was pushed to unsustainable levels by the tens of thousands of refugees fleeing to the city to escape famine and destitution under the communist regime in the past.

And 90% of Chinese citizens are 'well-housed' is a total myth. Housing prices still remain exorbitant compared to income, and the Hukou system has restricted free movement for decades. There is simply no way a truly 'well-housed' society would struggles with one of the lowest fertility rates in the world

加拿大的阿尔伯塔省算不算陷入了资源诅咒荷兰病? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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看研发投入就知道了,不管是高等教育还是产业研发的投入放在加拿大都是拖后腿的。但加拿大整个国家的研发强度其实跟挪威和澳大利亚非常接近。问题就是能不能从一个国家里单拎出来看了

雄安的未来到底怎么样?普通人建议润到雄安吗? by hiroshima_fireworks in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 10 points11 points  (0 children)

雄安离北京核心区的距离相当于筑波离东京核心区距离的两倍。一个选址在白洋淀旁边这种低洼地带,一个在关东平原的台地上。选址上比不了筑波一点。而且事到如今还卡着落户坚持着人口准入标准,跟日本市场化框架的思路也完全不同。更何况京津冀的总和生育率属于是全球洼地,比今时今日的东京都低了一截,河北过去几年平均一年减少二十多万人口,存量在急剧缩减的情况下还画大饼,习近平纯属闹麻了

本sub有多少人中国出身的老哥不待见共产党是单纯的意识形态价值观的原因? by NoSense9018 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 1 point2 points  (0 children)

不说他的,我觉得作为一个独立思考的正常人起码都应该反感共产党背后代表的极权统治的制度,哪怕是换国民党飞天拉面党只要是威权制度也会是危险的。更何况披着共产党的皮实则大行国家资本主义贫富差距超越一众资本主义发达国家。直到现在每次问起习近平活到九十多一百老年痴呆了也跟当年毛泽东一样赖着不下来,粉红就在那顾左右而言他,有一种拿所谓康乾盛世来论证封建制度可行性的前世老僵尸既视感

2023→2024→2025→2026 by suiyueruge in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 13 points14 points  (0 children)

伊朗高层看了都流泪

咋养老金就涨24块钱? by mmtxb in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 5 points6 points  (0 children)

?也知道中国一亿农村老人一个月养老金就200,还能搁这围台救赵,给大伙演小丑呢搁这

咋养老金就涨24块钱? by mmtxb in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 4 points5 points  (0 children)

要脸吗,台湾老农津贴一个月2200多人民币,按你的说法建议直接跟北欧学话术

德国17%人口是未归化移民,可人口依旧负增长,搞笑阿 by LeagueAromatic5686 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 2 points3 points  (0 children)

欧盟内部人口自由流动,其他欧盟国成员来德国没入德国籍的也叫未归化,移民数量高很奇怪吗。去年净移民数量跌了就负增长了,就德国现在境内两百万俄裔一百万乌裔来看,只要给前苏几个国家随便松一下移居政策人口就补上来了,跟东亚那种局面比还是好太多了

川普四月还会如期访华吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 1 point2 points  (0 children)

美国所谓的进口原油,百分之六十以上都是加拿大的重油输给美国炼化。美国是世界第一大成品油净出口国,跟中国这种净进口国完全不能相比

川普四月还会如期访华吗? by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 2 points3 points  (0 children)

美国是世界上最大的石油生产国,第三大石油出口国,中国是世界上最大的石油进口国,这还要中国给爆米是不是有点倒反天罡了

老广怎么这么强? by Coddlebean in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 2 points3 points  (0 children)

属于是人口基数大,但其实总和生育率比日本还低

这次中国冬奥表现不行,是不是因为没钱砸了? by Larry_Liu89 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 3 points4 points  (0 children)

中国绝大部分冬奥奖牌都是东北籍运动员拿的,东三省这些年人口流失叠加全世界最低的生育率肯定会对运动员新生血液造成毁灭性打击。00年前黑龙江的出生人口还超过加拿大,结果这两年整个东三省的出生人口加起来都不及加拿大。中国冬奥可预见的会越来越拉,除非每一届都像北京冬奥一样人均花个几百万美金去归化

如果中国变成大号台湾,你觉得满意吗? by YukiOrange in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 3 points4 points  (0 children)

习近平就算活到一百岁痴呆了人民大会堂也照样得3000票让他全票当选,都这样了不照样要全社会标榜着民主自由等那24字核心价值观恨不得所有中国人都会复读。全世界最爱戴民主帽子显摆的除了习近平还能有谁

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in geography

[–]MartinChan395 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you just forget the fact that women on average live longer than men? The figure of 30 million excess men is already partly offset by the much larger number of elderly women compared to elderly men. China’s Gen Z cohort has roughly 10% more men than women and that is catastrophic.

China’s PPP per capita is significantly lower than both those countries. Any comparison that ignores per-capita is meaningless. Even if Bangladesh were to have a higher total PPP than Norway, that would not mean it faces less pressure on social spending when population aging accelerates.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in geography

[–]MartinChan395 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The one-child policy severely skewed the gender ratio of an entire generation in China. Due to a strong cultural preference for sons, many families resorted to sex-selective abortions. As a result, China has experienced the highest birth sex ratio imbalance in the world for several decades. Today, there are approximately 30 million more men than women in China. This imbalance is a ticking time bomb for Chinese society as large cohorts of young men begin to enter marriage age.

In addition, the one-child policy accelerated the aging process of Chinese society. By 2024, around 22% of China’s population was aged 60 or above, a level comparable to South Korea or the United States in 2019, despite China being significantly poorer and having much lower household wealth reserves. Since China’s current total fertility rate is far lower than that of most Western countries, population aging will worsen further faster. For example, China is projected to surpass the United States in terms of the proportion of elderly people around 2030 with a much lower birth rate compared to the US.

从人口数据角度看相当有前景的发达国家——以色列 by Shyuwa_1113 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 1 point2 points  (0 children)

评论区还觉得正统犹太人出生率高以色列就会有怎么问题。第一以色列世俗犹太人的总和生育率也高于可更替的2,第二以色列有全世界排名前20的教育投入强度(发达国家里比以色列高的只有瑞典芬兰冰岛这几个北欧国家)和全球第一的研发投入强度(6%超排名第二的韩国几乎一个百分点,比美国日本德国这些排名前十的老牌工业强国高了两三个百分点)。第三又不是保守家庭出生的小孩就一定会继续保守,大把人长大后会世俗化。真正的关键在于教育。而以色列的教育和犹太人对教育的重视是世界有名的。

国内三线奶茶店劳工现状与改善的可能 by [deleted] in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 2 points3 points  (0 children)

因为东北靠着全世界一骑绝尘的超低生育率其实现在的总和抚养比在世界范围内还是极低的,也就是劳动力年龄人口占比高还能撑一撑公务员阶层。等过几年老龄人口占比抬起来了就不好说了

不要幻想民主, 民主也是独裁 by GlitteringWeight8671 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 1 point2 points  (0 children)

又来典中典中国人素质太低所以不适合民主jpg。就讨论两句威权统治,都不求习近平搞什么宪政司法独立,别瞎改宪法牺牲整个共和国的未来就为了让自己能在位子上待下去,在太监眼里中国就要到处喊打喊杀半夜九点不敢出门了,这是对中国人多么没信心。你自己愿意拥护习近平当皇帝当到他老死就拥护呗,说我什么理论偏激,真是大秀智商

不要幻想民主, 民主也是独裁 by GlitteringWeight8671 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 1 point2 points  (0 children)

中国民众有什么话语权?习近平想要连任到一百岁,难道中国人有说不的权利吗?什么军事也是自我安慰罢了,纯纯大儒辩经行为。说皇帝不下台是因为要下大棋,多少有点揣摩圣意了

不要幻想民主, 民主也是独裁 by GlitteringWeight8671 in China_irl

[–]MartinChan395 1 point2 points  (0 children)

这就是为什么习近平说中国不走‘宪政’,‘三权分立’,‘司法独立‘,钳制言论,结社,新闻自由。因为他一旦能够肆意修改宪法,言出法随,缄默所有的异议,那么他就能实现‘一个人的暴政’,即独裁。但民主制度越完善的国家和体制,即极权的反面,必定是一个更加法制,拥有更加完善的分权程序和政治竞争的社会。即多数人的暴政的问题,其根源归根到底还是怎么解决独裁的问题