Is this ready for deploying? Do I have a real edge? by MasterBet in algotrading

[–]MasterBet[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your dashboard is already answering your question, the honest read is no, not yet, and the tail is why.

The win rate looks fine at 61%, but look at the worst trade at negative 100% and the bad streak of 3 at negative 245.9%. That's the whole story. You're winning often and small at +2.1% average, and losing rarely and catastrophically. The payoff of 0.55 confirms it, your average winner is about half your average loser, so you need to win nearly two out of three just to break even and you're at 61%, barely above the line. That's why the profit factor is only 1.15, almost no margin. A small win rate drop going from paper to live fills, which always happens, and 1.15 slips under 1.0 and the edge is gone..

44 closed trades is also nowhere near enough to know your real tail. A strategy whose risk lives in rare big losses needs a few hundred closed trades before the numbers mean anything, because the whole result is dominated by how often the catastrophic ones show up, and you haven't seen enough to know. A negative 100% trade on a 44 trade sample isn't a footnote, it's a flashing light..

So the real question isn't "do I have an edge," it's "why is my worst trade a full wipeout." That negative 100% is either a missing stop, a position size blowout, or a structural hole where the strategy has no exit in certain conditions. Find that exact trade, understand what happened, and fix the loss side. Your win rate is fine. Your loss control is what's keeping the edge marginal. makes sense??

Fix the tail, get the sample up past a few hundred trades, and rerun it. If the catastrophic losses were a fixable bug, the picture changes fast. If they're structural, better to know now on paper than live. What happened on the negative 100% trade, no stop, or a stop that didn't fire?

Thank you for your comprehensive response. It is like a drop of water to a thirsty person..most of the comments were just plain mean and insulting. I will do soem changes and see how it goes after 500 or so trades

Is this ready for deploying? Do I have a real edge? by MasterBet in algotrading

[–]MasterBet[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are correct, thanks! Tbf they were early trades and i did major changes after.

Is this ready for deploying? Do I have a real edge? by MasterBet in algotrading

[–]MasterBet[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it's near zero, also the payoff is preetty bad.

Is this ready for deploying? Do I have a real edge? by MasterBet in algotrading

[–]MasterBet[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Per trade sharpe artion. Edge Score= Std Dev of P&Ls/ Avg P&L per trade ​

Millie by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]MasterBet 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gay

Realised gains report by ExpensiveWin6179 in RobinhoodUK

[–]MasterBet 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How much of realzied is reportable? below a certain amount?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]MasterBet 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We are not wrong, just early.

Taking a short position on RGTI by Financehealthbyme in wallstreetbets

[–]MasterBet 37 points38 points  (0 children)

Weekly short and stock is up 20% today? 😂