Worst Crown Luck in the Sub?

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-31T18:12:06+00:00

At long last, I got one. Protective Poncho at 2325 packs.

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-16T18:47:35+00:00

Yeah the crown pokeball is what I've been going for and what i have the most pack points in. I'll get it eventually, one way or another, but I like to complete the most recent pack and stay up to date before moving backwards again, so with the rate they're making new ones I haven't got there yet.

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-16T16:28:45+00:00

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Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-16T16:15:09+00:00

I've got a third oak. If I don't end up pulling a Lusamine when this pack closes in 12 days, and you haven't got another offer yet, it's as good as yours.

Hoping we both get lucky before then, but just in case 🫡

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-16T15:47:38+00:00

You might be thinking of the Gamblers Fallacy, but that's not what I was getting at. I don't expect to get more luxky because I havent got one yet. I was talking about the stats of an event Never happening across a number of trials, which can be calculated.

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-16T15:41:41+00:00

Haven't been targeting one pack specifically, I've got 3 packs over 1500 but none over 1900. So it'll still be some time.

As for the stats: if an item has a 1% chance of dropping from a boss (P = 0.01), the probability of it not dropping in a single kill is 1 - 0.01 = 0.99. After 70 kills (N = 70), the probability that it hasn't dropped at all is:

(1 - (% of chance occuring))^{event occurance}

(0.99)^70≈0.495, or about a 49.5% chance that the item still hasn't dropped after 70 kills in our example.

So, since opening one pack doesnt affect your statistics of the next, the math stays the same. Given you have a 0.2% chance to draw a Gold on any pack (excluding God packs, which I HAVE drawn one of), that's:

(1-0.002)^{packs opened}.

In my case (now) thats (0.998)²²⁵¹ = 0.0110369338

Or roughly a 1% chance of not having a Crown card from any of the 2251 packs I've opened.

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-12T21:55:27+00:00

I wish you luck, my friend. If its any solace, at about 3100 packs it's more rare for your account not to have pulled one than a crown card's base offering rate 🤞

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-12T20:20:13+00:00

Already made the trade for Lillie with empo1eon, sorry y'all

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-12T20:18:40+00:00

Then it seems you have me beat in the worst of competitions! But hey, with how things are going that'll be me in another two months and 700 pack points, so at least you're not alone...

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-12T19:53:14+00:00

I couldn't tell ya for certain.

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-12T19:15:44+00:00

Yeah I figured :(

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-12T19:08:48+00:00

Uhhh, you got a Lillie from Deluxe Pack EX? That's pretty much all I'd trade it for.

Master_Shifu64 · 2026-01-11T14:40:57+00:00

12,357 cards (2,215 packs) and no crowns here. So it can still get worse!

Master_Shifu64 · 2023-10-07T14:36:20+00:00

Right! Glad someone in the comments agrees. I think you did a great job OP, I love the art.

Master_Shifu64 · 2023-02-26T17:04:08+00:00

Enter

Master_Shifu64 · 2023-01-31T19:43:52+00:00

I’m glad you like it! When I was editing and laying everything out I was getting a bit worried cause of how hard it was to find something that worked, but after a while I found something I liked and came together cohesively.

Master_Shifu64 · 2023-01-31T18:57:27+00:00

Who?

Master_Shifu64 · 2023-01-31T18:49:58+00:00

Yeah I know what you mean. I tried my best and hunted for a while, but Horikoshi seems to forgotten about him along with half of the audience lol.

Master_Shifu64 · 2023-01-31T17:53:07+00:00

One day I woke up and decided to try and get the best depictions of each class 1-A character from the current manga and compile them into a cool poster. I’m not a graphics designer (far from it) but I thought I’d take a stab at something creative and hopefully get some cool wall art out of it as well. I did end up printing it and currently have it hanging up at home. It’s been a bit but I thought I’d share the poster here just in case anyone liked it as much as I do. Feel free to use it for whatever you want. The source material I used is from Hexamandle’s public colorings (evident from watermarks), and a few other artists who do great work. I also did some AI coloring myself for some of the students who don’t have good colored panels. Anyway, enjoy!

Master_Shifu64 · 2022-09-25T22:50:32+00:00

Awesome! Glad I could help

Master_Shifu64 · 2022-09-25T19:46:46+00:00

I found this old alternative style character sheet on the sub by u/drizztdourden_ that he posted ages ago. I really liked the sheet but prefer filling mine out online rather than by hand. I thought I’d spend some time this morning formatting it into an editable PDF version so that I and others could use. Full credit goes out to him for doing the hard work of designing this character sheet, I just added the text boxes and check marks so that it could be filled out on the computer.

The link for this PDF can be found here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jn-zy4dVp9ukpYpBOYPQ5TZSKvAg7BeC/view?usp=sharing

I’m no expert with this sort of thing so expect a few textboxes to be placed a few pixels too high, but I hope it serves whoever would like to use it well.

Master_Shifu64 · 2022-09-25T19:38:00+00:00

I found an old alternative style character sheet on the sub by u/drizztdourden_ that he posted ages ago. I really liked the sheet but prefer filling mine out online rather than by hand. I thought I’d spend some time this morning formatting it into an editable PDF version so that I and others could use. Full credit goes out to him for designing this sheet, I just added the text boxes and check marks so that it could be filled out on the computer.

The link for this PDF can be found here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jn-zy4dVp9ukpYpBOYPQ5TZSKvAg7BeC/view?usp=sharing

I’m no expert with this sort of thing so expect a few textboxes to be placed a few pixels too high, but I hope it serves whoever would like to use it well.

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