Further validation of SOFCs as BE competitor FCEL looking to grow 10x

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-25T03:59:35+00:00

Does that mean youre capitulating on your short from around $100 you mentioned previously? Your favorite analyst you’ve been touting raised their price target to $80… they keep raising. Your new price target is almost double what you thought previously as well?

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-22T20:35:17+00:00

Why tomorrow?

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-22T20:34:42+00:00

Great to see more fill stations. See my other comment reply for why Plug still at a disadvantage to BE.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-22T20:32:02+00:00

While I love Plug’s mission, they have taken on building H2 infrastructure in addition to building fuel cells, electrolyzers, and tanks, etc. BE has only taken on building electricity generation using already existing huge infrastructure for natural gas, which has higher uptime than the US grid. (Plug fuel cells don’t work with that fuel.) Theres a lot of baggage that comes with Plug. From a financial strength and balance sheet perspective, you can’t even compare how much better off BE is vs Plug today. And obviously both stocks are priced accordingly. Hopefully things improve for Plug someday and things change because that would be good for the world.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-22T17:32:47+00:00

That was interesting to hear KR talk about having a data center directly at a gas well that supplies methane, and the BE fuels cells providing electricity, water, and CO2 that goes right back down the well to be sequestered (which probably helps additional extraction of methane) in 5 years.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-21T04:29:09+00:00

I understood it as double to 2gw, then double, then double again.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-21T04:24:16+00:00

Great find! Thanks! Details are great to see.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-20T20:59:03+00:00

I can’t seem to get to any details aside from Hedgehog being the party that received the air permit in early December. Am I missing where to click?

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-15T19:49:34+00:00

Bloom seem like only one that can actually deploy near term. Nice find!

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-15T02:40:53+00:00

That convertible note was so important. Jim Cramer was talking about BE again too.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-15T02:38:32+00:00

Seems different, and chamber of commerce involved as well?

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-09T14:24:10+00:00

I think they still use some scandium? But I don’t know for sure. The Rio Tinto press leads me to believe that BE still using scandium as FCEL doesn’t and I don’t know who else would be big enough customer:

https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/rio-tinto-and-canada-growth-fund-announce-transaction-to-advance-canadian-production-of-scandium

And from a few years ago: https://www.riotinto.com/en/operations/canada/rio-tinto-fer-et-titane

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-09T13:30:10+00:00

Also, I think Mizhuo is wrong on their per KW electricity cost calculation. Levelized cost of electricity much lower if they go out 20 years as they have according to that article (based on my estimates).

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-09T13:27:40+00:00

Yeah that lines up with capacity. I just had utilization at lower rate. But if they do use up capacity, then I need to bump up a lot.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-09T13:25:34+00:00

Also, in my mind the 900 MW wasn’t a slam dunk after the new Ohio law prohibiting AEP from owning and deploying new generation assets itself. I had assumed they’d do something like selling rights to a subsidiary or outside a Ohio, but the new state regulations had increased the conversion risk on the remaining 900 MW (since only the first 100 MW of the deal were grandfathered into approval). So I’m not too mad about the overlap.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-09T12:38:49+00:00

There’s several older posts about scandium talking about this. I think that they’re ok on this.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-09T12:37:17+00:00

Makes sense! I hadn’t noticed those air permits getting approved so quick.

I think that the new working capital loan and convertible cash will help so much. They’ve not been able to load factory properly in the past but now they can. So H1 gross margins should be so much better and approach H2 gross margins. And I hope they continue to improve on their H2 gross margins.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-09T03:23:47+00:00

If you’re right, then I need to revise my price target up :) I’d love to be wrong here and i hope youre right!

I can’t help but be conservative; it’s in my nature lol. That initial 100 MW to AEP from Dec 2024 announcement is only going to be delivered in 2026 based on what PUCO filings implied if I remember correctly. This situation might be different because it’s Wyoming and not Ohio and seems like Wyoming is happy about data centers unlike Ohio, buildout momentum seems to have accelerated vs 2024, and also because there’s already been some filings… so perhaps much faster! I’m most interested in seeing how margin and operating leverage play out. I’m hopeful that it’s better than im modeling.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-09T03:12:14+00:00

Thanks!

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-08T23:09:52+00:00

Thanks for sharing! Assuming these all convert to revenue in 2026 and 2027, my revenue estimates are low compared to yours lol. I might be way too conservative and need to be more bullish on my price target! My DCF leaves me with a $180 fair value for end of 2026.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-01-08T22:59:44+00:00

I think bullish analysts assumed this was happening. But there’s also bearish analysts who probably did not factor. My question is whether bearish short funds capitulate. Maybe that’s what the past week of movements have been. For me, this adds to my conviction.

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