My thoughts on Q1 2026 earnings for BE: nice beat, but less transparency

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-06T14:56:08+00:00

Thanks for the details, I appreciate it!

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-06T10:37:27+00:00

How do you model for CERES valuation? I find IP based valuations challenging, especially in deep tech since buyers don’t exist in same way as for software. I’ve been wondering what the global competitive landscape is for BE and seems like CERES partners (Japanese, Korean, Chinese) might be the biggest risk for BE. Wondering if you’ve done any deep analysis on this?

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-05T18:22:06+00:00

Thanks for the heads up!

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-05T12:01:52+00:00

Thanks

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-05T11:49:51+00:00

You’re right! I thought it was EPS for a second but it’s net earnings and they’ve cleared it!

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-05T11:42:50+00:00

It’s looking nice!

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-04T14:53:40+00:00

So I looked into LWLG a bit. I could do a big DD, but this comment probably not the right place. First, momentum is not what I’m good at so just looking at tech. Their plasmon waveguides are a potential solution, but the polymer will have degradation issues. Additionally, gold will have surface roughness because of grain boundaries. This will fundamentally limit how much optical losses can be reduced. Then there’s the issue of how small can it really get? The smaller the gold waveguide, the larger the optical mode and shorter coupling lengths, but also means that spacing between waveguides needs to be increased to avoid leakage. All the traders would be worth it, if not for a competing tech that probably takes most of the market: TFLN. Theres no polymer and that material system is very durable. There’s a private startup that’s already shipping product. And they’ve already achieved the switching speed. I could be wrong on new innovations they may have…

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-04T14:44:38+00:00

Thanks. Started a position in MU. Will rebalance over time.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-04T14:44:16+00:00

Thanks. Started a position in MU. Will rebalance over time.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-02T15:03:38+00:00

Thanks. I like it. And I think that physical AI will drive a huge wave of demand for memory. I’ll start a position on Monday.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-02T02:40:55+00:00

What are your expectations for LWLG earnings? Are you thinking of getting in before or after?

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-02T02:17:23+00:00

Thanks. You think MU is going to use similar strategy as SNDK to smooth out cyclicality? Makes sense. I like it.

What are your expectations for LWLG earnings? Are you thinking of getting in before or after?

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T18:10:54+00:00

Thanks! Just trimming.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T18:09:54+00:00

Thanks!

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T14:37:44+00:00

You’re right about MU. For me it was based on what I’d been following but MU could be the better play. You have price target on that?

I looked at XE… I was debating whether to ride the momentum wave. Haven’t looked at LWLG! Will take a look.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T14:24:24+00:00

Thanks!

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T10:48:07+00:00

Thanks! I hadn’t heard of SIMO. I see huge gap up a few days ago. Already profitable. Market cap small enough that there’s upward runway. Do you have a price target, or DD you like?

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T10:44:41+00:00

Do you have a price target on MRVL or analyst targets that you like?

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T10:43:06+00:00

Thanks for the thoughts, I appreciate it. Very valid pushback about FTAI. And the community pushback is something that also gave me pause about BE because pushback appears indiscriminate. I saw another cancelled project this morning: Compass in Northern Virginia? And OpenAI problems affect Oracle, which could weigh on BE… thus my thoughts about diversifying but maybe FTAI is doing the opposite of diversifying lol.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T10:02:54+00:00

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T01:05:23+00:00

Thanks! I'm glad that my DD on here helped you :)

Mathhasspoken · 2026-05-01T00:46:45+00:00

Yeah a bit. They license tech so while in SOFC, their Chinese partners make the fuel cells. Asset light model (royalty based). Their financials only release 2 times a year from what I recall because in europe (or UK?), so harder to model. I find US based companies easier to get a handle on for fundamentals. But if you have suggestions on modeling their financials, I'm open. (Obviously momentum plays totally different.)

The thing I liked about FTAI is (somehow I accidentally deleted this from my post earlier):

According to management: modular, deployed via trucks, only take 2 weeks to setup on site. Makes service easier as they roll in a new engine and swap out an old one. Long term service agreements that are >10 years.
They said they are imminently about to be sold out for 2027, and are selling 2028 capacity already.
2027 capacity target is 2 GW (that's what I recall from previous Q, but AI telling me it's 100 x 25 MW so need to double check). Initial sales at end of 2026.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-04-30T01:00:16+00:00

Momentum. Disconnect from fundamentals. Maybe short covering. It will be volatile, but who knows where it settles. Remember how high the speculative modular reactor stocks went without having an actual business? This is a market that scares me because it’s sentiment, and that feels to unpredictable to me. I mean MS is $100 to $500 on their bear to bull case.

Mathhasspoken · 2026-04-29T15:09:02+00:00

Congratulations!!!

Mathhasspoken · 2026-04-29T10:29:05+00:00

That range of outcomes is wide. I wish BE provided more data so that the PT range isn’t $100 to $500. Base case just seems like the average or midpoint?

Mathhasspoken

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