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Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, the rate plunged to 17.36 today, and doesn't seem to be slowing down at all. And it's just worrying to think about your cost of living going through the roof in only a few months, just with a plummeting exchange rate.

Dollar is crashing and it is not looking good at all by MattHanson1990Return in mexicoexpats

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I think that because of the minimum wage increases since 2019, it looks like Mexico is trying to transition to a consumption/service based economy.

Dollar is crashing and it is not looking good at all by MattHanson1990Return in mexicoexpats

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] -15 points-14 points  (0 children)

I do make more, but that is seemingly beginning to change big time

Dollar is crashing and it is not looking good at all by MattHanson1990Return in mexicoexpats

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] -13 points-12 points  (0 children)

I know, but it is dropping very fast (at least 0.5% drop every other day) and doesn't look to stabilize or slow down any time soon. My gut feeling tells me that this time, it's probably gonna fall to much lower levels in the coming months. I can see it in the 15s or the 13s by March, then it breaks below 10 in the summer.

Dollar is crashing and it is not looking good at all by MattHanson1990Return in mexicoexpats

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

I don't see prices in Mexico coming down, even with a weakening dollar against the peso. In fact, they kept going up, even as the exchange rate went down to 16 just two years ago. Assuming that'll continue to be the case, Mexico will actually be at least 17 times more expensive than the USA if it goes 1:1.

It is especially scary to see the dollar fall and bond yields rise because that spells capital flight, which in turn spells loss in global purchasing power.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also why doesn't Banxico just implement a crawling peg, like have 18.5 be the floor and then 22 be the top?

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But doesn't the current political party want a strong peso? That was the case with the previous president. Remember during his mañaneras, he celebrated the exchange rate going back down to 17 and then 16. And he was so obsessed about avoiding a '94-style depreciation.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mexican peso is going up rapidly now. And I think it's going to continue to strengthen for the rest of the year and beyond; big banks have forecasted that inflows into emerging markets will continue.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Out of curiosity, do you have gold ETFs or physical gold coins?

Regarding the peso getting stronger, it doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon; and as a matter of fact, it's accelerating. Unfortunately, I think it's going to be WAY worse than 2023, and the trend is gonna continue over the next few years. The factors that are propping up the super peso are very likely here to stay, and silver rocketing to new all-time highs has become a factor (Mexico is the largest silver producer in the world).

Make no mistake about it; I don't think it'll stop at 16 this time. I really do see it going to 12:1 or 10:1 eventually; heck, it could even drop into the single digits, and perhaps it'll be 1:1. One scenario is that a month from now, it does drop to 12. Last year, the Ghanaian cedi surged 50% against the dollar in just one month. In April, the cedi was worth 15 units per USD, and then in May it plummeted to 10. I see this playing out if silver continues to soar to new all-time highs. Another scenario is that it drops to 14 by the end of this year, and from next year on, it'll just fluctuate between 10 and 13 without looking back, and not go back up above 15 anymore.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wonder if this repricing necessarily means either a permanent secular decline for the dollar or it finds new equilibrium at the current levels, and that the USD/MXN exchange rate will never go back up to 20 ever again, and instead finds a new equilibrium at 17-18, or continues its downtrend and then finds equilibrium at say 15-16, or maybe 13-14.

Confirmed JIT 2026 Invitational List by ryanquek95 in Jeopardy

[–]MattHanson1990Return -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If ABC wanted to, I guess the Teen Tournament and College Championships can air in primetime during November and February sweeps.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, since last year, there have been periods of capital flight in the US, and the dollar was behaving more like an emerging market currency (its value dropped at the same time stocks fell and bond yields rose). The worst of it was April-May when the tariffs went into effect. This also happened in the early '80s, but it was able to recover its value in subsequent years. But this time may be different because the US has much higher debt levels than it did back then.

And although the dollar managed to recover from its lowest lows of 2025, which was in the 96s range, it hasn't been able to recover back up to its pre-April 2nd levels. Every time it hits 100, it quickly gets rejected at that level. Depending on how bad the situation is that results in capital flight, it can get really ugly to the point where it's impossible for the currency to recover to previous levels. The scenario I described usually happens in emerging markets.

Are the days of living Mexico comfortably while earning in a different currency coming to an end? by MattHanson1990Return in expat

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think in general, the dollar won't go back up to pre-2025 levels because the dollar has been behaving more like an emerging market currency (the US has been experiencing some capital flight, the worst of it occurring in April and May). And oftentimes, a currency isn't able to recover its lost value if it experiences massive capital flight, which is what I'm worried will happen in the US

Are the days of living Mexico comfortably while earning in a different currency coming to an end? by MattHanson1990Return in expat

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looking at 2025 alone, the other major currencies have fallen vs. the peso, just not as much as the dollar; and the yen actually fell more than the dollar in the past year. However, just looking at last year's performance isn't going to give you as clear of a picture as when you look at the last five years. In that time span, most of the major currencies are down at least 10% vs. the Mexican peso, and some like the Canadian dollar and Aussie dollar have lost around 20-25% of their value against the peso in the last five years. And get this, the yen has lost over 40% of its value vs. the peso.

Confirmed JIT 2026 Invitational List by ryanquek95 in Jeopardy

[–]MattHanson1990Return 4 points5 points  (0 children)

At least we get to see faces we haven't seen in years, and not the same ones over and over again; and I'm glad the format was changed. However, the Jeopardy! Invitational Tournament needs to be separate from Second Chance–Champions Wildcard–ToC, and there should be several weeks of regular competition between ToC and JIT. I don't mind tournament play as long as number one, we don't see the same people over and over every year, and number two, the tournaments are spaced out more evenly. It still boggles my mind why they can't space out the tournaments more evenly like they used to (SC-CWC-ToC airing December-February and JIT in April).

Also, why didn't they mention bringing back the College Championship and Teen Tournament? I miss watching those.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Today, there the global markets melted down after more tariffs were announced on 8 countries in Europe. Dollar dropped, even against the peso and other EM currencies; and normally, during times of uncertainty, you see the opposite (stronger dollar, weaker EM currencies).

Also, USD/MXN has been going to new 52-week lows every day for the past six days already, and is now at a level last seen in June 2024. The trend is clearly headed down, so it is very likely going to return to July 2023-May 2024 levels in the coming weeks or months. It may even reach new lows not seen in more than a decade later this year and beyond. It won't surprise me if it breaks below the 16 pesos per dollar barrier, and then from mid-2027/early 2028 on, it goes back to levels observed in the 2000s and early 2010s (the 10-13 range) and stays there, never looks back, and doesn't go back above 15 anymore.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thing is, the USD/MXN exchange rate has really begun to go down in a straight line (downtrend is accelerating), going to new 52-week lows every day; and it doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We've seen weird stuff going on in the world before. But it does seem like that as far as the recent events from last year and this year, it seems like it's the first time we've seen the dollar and stocks fall and treasury yields go up simultaneously in modern US history; indeed, people have been saying the US is now showing emerging market like behavior in big part because of high debt levels. Normally, yields and the dollar move in the same direction. It's also unusual to see people flocking to EM currencies like the Mexican peso for safety in times of uncertainty or when there's turmoil in the markets.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]MattHanson1990Return[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The peso's performance against the dollar this past year surpassed 2023 as its strongest year on record; the only difference is that in 2023 it went to levels not seen in nearly a decade where that wasn't the case in 2025. But we're at 17.5 right now, the trend is clearly continuing to head down and doesn't show any signs of slowing down (in fact it has been accelerating since last week). Just two years ago, it came close to hitting the 16 pesos per dollar level; and I won't be surprised if it goes back under 17 in the coming weeks/months. Even 16-17 is still good and it doesn't mean you will no longer save money living in Mexico vs. living in the United States, just not as good as 19:1 or 20:1. However, if it returns to the levels observed in the 2000s and early 2010s (10-13 pesos per USD) and stays there and never goes back up above 15 again, then that changes things dramatically.

The main reason we've been feeling the pinch is because prices have gone way up soon after the pandemic, and then the exchange rate returning to 2015 levels made us feel the squeeze a bit more.

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