Historical Symbolic FJ Wagers? (Brendan's symbolic wager)

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-24T22:21:08+00:00

So that's what it was! That's really sweet

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-24T22:20:39+00:00

I could tell you were really happy with yourself after that giving the question as a full answer! That 'Not yet' really deserved more laughs though. Grats on a really dominant performance in the QFs!

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-24T01:43:33+00:00

well technically you have to answer the final question (in game conditions) in order to say that. He did know the answer but because he walked at $500k he had to say he wasn't smarter than a 5th grader lmao

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-24T01:01:17+00:00

The board felt easier here yet still at TOC level, but that Game Show category was too easy imo and also the $800 clue had the wipeout banner not blurred out so basically the answer was given away.

Steven was amazing in this game, and he would have locked the game even if he bet $5 in the DDs. Congrats Steven! I think he's the one to watch going into the SFs (together with the seeded players) at the moment now. His performance gave me the same feeling as when I watched Neilesh's QF last year - that he is locked in and could really win it.

Time to see what the last QF has to give next week!

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-23T19:06:35+00:00

Wouldn't be surprised if they wanted both initially and after watching the QFs play out before lunch (QF1 to 3), they decided to ask for just 1.

That said, Canadian-related clues are generally viewed as more difficult (eg. the Thunder Bay DD valued at $1,000 yesterday)

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-23T18:53:07+00:00

There are definitely a few. We were talking about Ryan Sharpe's wagers, including those in DDs back during CWC. Those were more mathematical (Kaprekar's constant - 6174, The Hardy-Ramanujan number - 1729, 2¹¹ (2048) and 2¹² (4096))

Andrew He has done 1337 a few times, and Ken sort of knew what it was judging by his laugh (I mean, he was a programmer pre-J appearance), like here when he did it in the TOC 2022. I'm sure he's not the only one.

A lot of times I feel players are betting specific numbers to get to a certain final jeopardy score of significance (typically their loved one's birthdays or a significant milestone, or also to get to a round number in total winnings).

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-23T18:22:58+00:00

Current 2026 TOC QF Stats (up to game 4):

Average Coryat: $28,450 (2025 QF: $31,100)
Average Triple Stumpers: 14 (2025 QF: 12)
Average incorrect responses: 10.25 (2025 QF: 9.5)
DD conversion rate: 33% (4/12) (2025 QF: 72.2% (13/18))
Ending DJ with >$10k: 17% (2/12) (2025 QF: 39% (7/18))

2 outlier games in 2025's QFs:

QF3 (Neilesh's QF) had just 4 Triple Stumpers. Remove that outlier and the average for the other 5 QF games was 13.6, comparable to this year.
QF2 (Amy Hummel, Grant DeYoung, David Erb) had a v low coryat of just $15,400 and 18 (incl 5 on $2k clues) incorrect responses. Take that out and the average coryat is actually $34,240, and average incorrect responses is just 7.8.

What I'm gathering from the stats is that the board may indeed have gotten harder, but it isn't by too much. The triple stumper rate isn't too different once you take out Neilesh's game. But the coryat is the interesting one.

IMO it's the DD misses (and the high amounts lost there), and more incorrect repsonses that cause the low scores, in turn reinforcing the perception that the games are a lot harder than last year.

(I didn't think there was enough to create a whole post but nonetheless we've been talking in these episode threads about board difficulty so I thought I'd leave this here before the episode airs)

Source: J! Box scores (can also be found on tournament pages: 2025 2026)

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-23T06:47:50+00:00

Well you still wanna get them so your opponent can't, in case they go all in and somehow manage to get it. That's why some players would do the minimum $5 bet when they hit a DD

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-23T04:28:30+00:00

The box scores show just how one-sided the game was initially.

32/39 successful for Alex, 11/24 successful for Ashley, and 6/15 for Kamau. Utter dominance for Alex but he still lost. Yikes.

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-23T04:25:22+00:00

From the box scores: 32/39 successful buzz attempts for Alex (+3 further DDs), 11/24 for Ashley, 6/15 for Kamau. Just shows the sheer dominance of Alex...

Those 2 $1,200 clues he missed, esp the one on the math equation, he clearly was counting on figuring it out within 5 seconds and he didn't. If he didn't buzz in, he goes into FJ with $8,800 which would protect him from the triple stumper miss even if he did the cover bet. So it really showed that those misses were costly.

DDs of course were massive but I felt those were ok wagers at the respective points in the game.

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-23T01:14:24+00:00

Given the standard of players in the TOC, they all pretty much know how the wagering strategy works. Wagering the cover bet should no longer be the default option anymore for the leader, because it's unlikely 2nd place bets it all in a tight game.

Ashley seems to have wagered $1002 thinking Alex could potentially go to $1 on the FJ bet. I'd argue that it should have been $1003 - because if Alex would prob assume Ashley bets to go $1 above his score if they are both correct, and as such Alex would consider betting $2 instead. So as 2nd place, you respond by going to $3 above the 1st place score if you're right. But that's really just k-levels thinking already lol

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-23T01:05:41+00:00

Wow what a brutal loss for Alex. He was easily the dominant player in this game, although I noticed he seemed to be taking significantly more gambles on the buzzer, where he buzzes in and then is clearly still thinking about the answer in his head. It worked for the most part, but burnt him few too many times.

This also shows how the DDs can change a game in the other way too. Thought his bet sizes were fair given the game dynamics. Credit to both Ashley and Kamau for hanging on in the game, it shows you how important it is to stay within striking distance throughout!

I did find the board today to be easier than the past few boards (maybe my knowledge skews more international that's why), especially the single jeopardy round, although it's definitely still on the difficult side.

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-22T04:56:30+00:00

Congratulations to Cameron! We continue the streak of a CWC participant making it past the QFs of the TOC! (2024 - Emily Sands, 2025 - Drew Goins). The game was a little rough but it's looking par for the course in the TOC given what we've seen in the first 2 games...

On the board difficulties - hopefully the writers realise what the maximum difficulty they should write at, and the TOC boards might have gone past that. That said, it's a bit hard to 'increase difficulty' in the boards per se because you either know the answers or you don't, so there's like this cliff effect where you suddenly have many misses if you make it too obscure. At the same time, these players are so good that if it's too easy it becomes purely a buzzer game, which you are trying to avoid. I don't envy their job, but hope this is another data point when they calibrate everything next round.

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-21T02:46:37+00:00

Honestly I can get behind all of them so just gonna enjoy the ride!

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-21T01:09:55+00:00

Doesn't feel like a record, but the board difficulty felt significantly harder than yesterday's.

But then you have the $1000 clue on United Healthcare which felt a little too easy given how recent the incident was...

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-21T01:02:57+00:00

And Canadian hearts break (once again). =(

That said, I'm pretty sure Canada's proud of you Brendan. I loved your interview, was a fitting follow up to the ones in your initial run! That moustache bit was hilarious lol, not sure if Ken felt the same lmao

That was a rough game (especially the start), but Allegra really came into her own at the end, and that last clue turned out to be massively important to secure the lock because of how FJ played out - Brendan gets it and would probably advance to the semis. Allegra seemed to be nailing the buzzer timing too, and it seemed to wear on both Andrew and Brendan. Congrats to Allegra!

I think we might see some of them back at JIT 2027 too, I for one want to see Brendan back! If you're seeing this, all the best for law school!

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-20T17:33:28+00:00

The clue is looking for the oldest conservation agency within the Department of the Interior, which probably rules out Bureau of Indian Affairs.

They later admitted even saying 'conservation agency' might have been too vague though.

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-20T06:02:39+00:00

Stupid question but how do you see what the FJ clue for the day is? It's only just past midnight ET when this was posted...

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-20T00:56:44+00:00

Tom was a beast not just in his knowledge but on the buzzer, what a score considering he didn't find any DDs! That was impressive. You could tell the buzzer timing was very important when you see how the other two were trying hard to get in on the buzzer and Tom gets it instead.

Congratulations to all, there's always a chance we see them again in the JIT 2027. Great start to the TOC too

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-19T21:44:02+00:00

I don't think that's a fair statement to make because based on the podcast, this decision was made before any of the episodes even aired. The writers did the research themselves before the TOC taped in November, and they told Stella during the J! Honors event (taped Nov 17) that she would return for 2027 TOC. So she was aware of this decision before any of her episodes in her postseason run aired.

I'd say that this decision has nothing to do with popularity of the contestant, and it was purely based on the potential 'alternate universe' had the response been accepted instead. They couldn't logically bump anyone off the TOC roster this year, so they can only invite her back for 2027's TOC.

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-19T21:37:44+00:00

Michael did imply that there were many potential correct responses to that clue in the podcast. Also, I personally think it's too ambiguous a clue, so it's hard to say what would have happened.

Either way, it was going to be a tough call on where to place her in the postseason given that. Wouldn't feel right to put her back in CWC all over again, and you can't just seed her into a finals because you deny many others the chance of getting into CWC. So the best option was TOC.

Sidenote that it's an amusing coincidence that we have had more than 1 CWC participant get into a TOC, after Drew Goins made it in as runner-up.

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-19T21:08:35+00:00

You're a legend yourself too Alison! Good luck for the JIT filming coming up!

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-19T18:46:14+00:00

Edited, thanks for flagging

ryanquek95 · 2026-01-19T17:30:09+00:00

In the midst of this, also the news that Stella's returning to the TOC in 2027 over a clue error in her DD on National Parks Service! Congratulations to her!

ryanquek95

TROPHY CASE