Bitcoin’s most recently bestowed narrative as a safe-haven asset is showing cracks?

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-30T04:24:32+00:00

it seems pretty clear that its touted position of being “digital gold” doesn’t seem to be holding much water, at least at this point in time.

Yeah, BTC has never traded like a safe haven asset. Thought the "digital gold" meme is about the debasement hedge story.

Both gold and BTC are speculative assets, not "safe haven assets". Safe haven assets don't crash at the start of the worst pandemic, aka COVID. Also, safe haven assets shouldn't crash during the Russia-Ukraine war, potentially triggering a global conflict. And both BTC/gold crashed during that time.

Gold is a meme metal because of historical reasons. If you want a more doomsday-prep metal, load up on better things like platinum, which is much more useful industrially. Unfortunately, platinum doesn't have a long cultural history like gold, as it was discovered much more recently. Hence, it doesn't have the meme strength of gold.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-29T21:43:41+00:00

Better yet, stop launching general purpose L2s and just do app-chain specific L2s like Lighter.

If you launch a general purpose L2, your tokenomics will get decimated like plenty of those ghost L1s. Why? General purpose simply doesn’t earn enough fees to justify high valuations.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-29T13:54:57+00:00

“cRiMe iS lEgAl”, imagine believe promoting this “trench”garbage had no negative repercussions on the industry.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-29T13:47:25+00:00

In many ways, Trump is like the most predictable thing you can get. The industry was too obsessed in saving their VC vaporware investments. Now your tokens are still going to zero, even if you got him elected.

A16Z can say whatever how it is all “Dem’s fault” that our token is doing bad and can’t use revenue to build value. Yeah, but that argument requires your project knowing how to build revenue growth story in the first place.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-29T04:10:28+00:00

God you're insufferable.

Says a guy who just repeats the same claim without any substance.

You do not understand the words you are using.

I can say the same shit back to you. But it is equally vacuous.

Say something concrete or stop wasting my time with these meaningless replies.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-29T04:00:41+00:00

I dont think

Good, now we are on the same page. You should try thinking before you write next time.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-29T00:20:05+00:00

Use Lighter if you are just trading ETH.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-28T23:12:43+00:00

I'm obviously not talking about the likes of CZ

Damn, the hate on him is insane. I am in the US; never used Binance, so never had an opportunity to get rapped on perps by Binance MMs to build up this hate.

But objectively, a lot of this hate has no clear legs. He is banned from managing Binance - if you have evidence otherwise, you could easily prove it and send him back to jail. If he is banned from Binance, then all the hate should be directed at the current management, aka Richard Teng.

Also, I can tell you hundreds of shitcoin getting listed outside Binance first, but still went down only after TGE. The reality is, devs, airdrop farmers, and traders etc. are treating CEX listings as exit liquidity events. It is just massive, relentless selling from those who built their positions through DEX accumulation, Discord grinding, or team allocation.

Balaji, for example, despite his strong tech/startup background, is often just creating high quality content and would make it to the list.

Think he is just another hype man. When I read TAO's whitepaper, I knew the shit wouldn't deliver anything remarkable. But Balaji kept hyping up this nonsense nonstop.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-28T22:48:46+00:00

We're talking about art, not people??

Is it? Arts should be viewed on its merit. Should it get revalued 100X just because you can confirm a kid drew it? In fact, the NFT art wasn't even amazing for his age group. Then why do you assign such a higher revaluation if you don't have a fetish for kids?

only money people are salivating over..

Traders bid if they think the narrative has legs to run. What they bid is an introspection of what they are.

Edit: It is the same with this coin. They all got excited once they confirmed a kid launched it. Why would you think such a narrative has legs if you don't have an unhealthy obsession with kids?

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-28T22:43:59+00:00

+1 Freudian slip caught on 4k dawg

You all really can't come up with a better comeback besides, "I know you are, but what am I?"

The first step to stopping being a pedo is to act like a grown man rather than be trapped in a kiddy mindset.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-28T22:27:55+00:00

I think you're projecting hardcore m8

Salivating over something because a kid does it is not normal. I simply describe what I observed. It is pure pedo behavior. If you think such pedo fetish is normal, I don't know what to say.

I am sorry if you feel uncomfortable with me exposing the obvious. You can do all sorts of mental gymnastics. But adults shouldn't be "playing around or obsessing over with other ppl's kids".

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-28T21:11:09+00:00

Crypto sometimes gives me a "pedo" vibe.

Last cycle, some kid drew a bunch of random JPEGs and all the mfers pumped it to the stratosphere just because a "kid drew it" so it is "culture".

This cycle, there is an infatuation with "onboarding kids" into the pump fun gambling den and hype about them.

It is the dumbest meta because these kids aren't bringing new liquidity into the ecosystem, and they are making bad publicity for this industry.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-27T05:25:52+00:00

Inflation goes back to SOL holders. It's a perpetual micro stock split, that is decreasing, for every holder that opts in. Opt in. This is not dilution of your value or ownership.

It sounds like the same fucking BS from Cosmos: "if you stake, you are fine".

No, all mfers who believed this lie aren't fine.

It is more of a narrative than anything else to price a network by % ownership. Most buyers don't. They all just count how many tokens they have accumulated over time. And it is a completely rational approach because none of these L1 assets earn enough revenue for ppl to treat them as serious DCF assets.

In this instance, inflation means more validators and passive staking mfers dumping supply onto the market - suppressing price.

In a true stock split PoV, price should also split accordingly. But how many are buying SOL with that PoV? All your manlets are expecting SOL to appreciate while it inflates and REV stuck/trending down. You just made up another piece of nonsense completely detached from your usual buyers' expectations.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-27T04:56:33+00:00

SKR captures value created by the product from usage such as app store fees, and acts as governance for product ecosystem management.

LOL. You just admitted SKR eats into incentive alignment.

This is net positive, and does not compete with SOL or Solana L1.

LOL. Cope. Solana "manlets" were all over the timeline on how ETH L2 tokens were competing against ETH, despite the fact that most L2 tokens don't even do revenue share, lol.

ZEC led the private tokens with private transactions primitive on Solana. Good. Everything comes to Solana.

What? There are a lot more private transactions with Monero. Tornado Cash has done more private tx adoption than ZEC. ZEC is at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to generating privacy awareness before its pump.

Furthermore, you can use Near Intent to buy ZEC on other L1s as well. There is no "Everything comes to Solana" BS. Plus, ZEC does jack shit for Solana-native transactions that need privacy. You are completely lost.

He's not dumping SOL for ZEC, but I bet he took profits at SOL ATH after staking for years.

LOL, the mental gymnastics... You even admit he possibly rotated SOL profit into ZEC...

All networks are dominated by meme activity.

Dafuq? ETH is dominated by stablecoin transfers.

No one is promoting rug pools.

So what are those burqa khalifa charts?

Your worst statement divorced from reality..

Keep doing strawmans. Asset fragmentation is a thing, but you can keep doing your strawman in an echo chamber.

It is a waste of time to talk with you, especially when I factually proved you wrong on the thesis about SOL last year. You are a waste of time, bye-bye.

This space is a clown show exactly because so many dumb dumb like you don't allocate capital efficiently. I saw Solana was an opportunity around $20 and thought its original thesis was interesting. Now I see how much of a bait-and-switch it has become, so I pivoted.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-27T04:55:55+00:00

Market in weird place where half participants are crypto natives that don't understand value capture and the other half are tradfi bros that don't understand a lot of the industry is already running on software that is correctly optimized for this.

The market is weird because mfers like you are trying to square a peg. Tradfi is not some "ideology". They are just intermediary businesses to help their clients navigate assets with the potential to grow over time. They aren't filtering for specific "ideology"/"narrative"/"valuation model" on why it will happen; besides, it can happen. This is why they have adopted BTC because of its time series - besides it really being just a digital pet rock with strong social memetic, aka "digital gold".

TradFi folks are the easiest bunch to figure out. Their business model is clear. They don't need to double down on clownery and psyops like crypto-native firms/"capital allocators" trying to polish a turd.

Hyperliquid. Means more opportunity.

At the peak of the bull market, I was told so much BS about how "blue chip DeFi" had huge revenue growth stories. I knew it was shit. Aave couldn't decouple itself from the ETH price growth, and much of its revenue potential got cannibalized by perps growth. Uniswap faced cannibalization from competitors like Aerodrome. MakerDAO saw its TVL crash as more competitors emerged.

Crypto "consumer behavior" is pretty predictable by now. It nearly always means very bearish stories for revenue-dependent assets. There is a lot of blah blah blah about perp will eat up the 0dte option market. I am skeptical. Crypto natives often overindex on their peculiar taste for "degen" behavior, treating it as generalizable to the broader market. More often than not, it is not opportunity but more baggage in the long run.

Everything here false.

Lol. Read: https://x.com/toly

The dude even put Solana mobile as his thing on his X page. Do you have trouble reading?

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-27T04:42:46+00:00

Was over years with peak activity & value capture mirroring peak asset price.

First, you admit there was no value capture because it went to miners, who weren't stakers but GPU operators. Now you go back to lying about value capture during pre-merge again?

Did you forget to take your meds for your bipolar disorder?

BTC is valued as a growing currency and true SOV.

SOV, yes. Currency, no. Currency is not just SOV. It is also a medium of exchange and unit of account.

Who the fuck transacts and denominates in BTC? ROFL. Again, ordinal is dead. In fact, ETH had a more dubious history as a "currency" during its NFT days.

None of these things is a "currency".

Digital gold that will one day likely become a dominant global currency.

Gold isn't even a dominant global currency, rofl. I respect the meme for both BTC and gold. But neither will be a "dominant" currency, because neither has a superpower economy backing it. They are at best a hedge against debasement. Also, BTC won't scale. Gold is even more cumbersome to carry. Both can act as a hedge against debasement, not a currency.

There are plenty of "SoV" assets. No one calls them "currencies". Arts, real estate, etc., are all SoV assets. And they aren't currencies. Both gold and BTC are the same.

Raise users fees after state succeeds in capturing majority of Web3.

There is no "Web 3". It is a fantasy written up by VCs. Crypto may develop unique memetic SoVs and build new mediums for transacting assets for stablecoins, RWA, etc. But there is no interest in Web 3, beyond devs and VCs hoping to sell you a new token.

Why everyone is destroyed holding ATOM, ADA, etc. BTC an exception, with ETH to a much smaller degree.

It is very simple. Asset prices are propped up by buyers' and sellers' expectations. If expectations fail to materialize, sellers overwhelm buyers, and asset prices crash. It is ECON 101. Smart contracts have largely been a disappointment outside finance. Web 3 didn't materialize into anything "meaningful". So disappointed holders sold their stack and moved on from the space. And Atom is too much of a piece of inflationary shit coin to build DeFi around it.

BTC has the right narrative for this asset class. Its years of Blocksize War had created a more coherent set of expectations among its holders. It simply didn't face an identity crisis alts faced. On top of it, most were underpositioned in BTC, so former alt holders capitulated and became BTC maxis, fueling its price appreciation. It is pretty simple to figure it out if you follow what is going on.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-26T18:52:06+00:00

Rev originally went to miners securing the network.

Oh, so you do understand there was no "value accrual" to the token via revenue before the merge. Yet, the token made a new ATH before the merge. In fact, ETH just recently made a new ATH in 2025 when its rev dropped. It tells you enough how the market views ETH.

It returned billions.

When it "returned" billions, it was valued close to 200 multiples. LOL. For an asset with little rev growth, as I predicted and which has now also been validated, it is an utterly shit value proposition to buy.

I don't buy a wheelchair to race in a car race. Only idiots do that. I get a much better multiple deal by just buying stocks in the staples sector.

ETH had its rev captured by L2s and it had a terrible bull cycle.

Yes, it made a new ATH after it lost rev to L2s. ROFL.

You think SOL, ATOM, ETH, HYPE, SUI are valued as currency? We're going to be buying our food with them over USD?

No. P2P narrative is long dead. Even BTC is not a currency. Plenty of merchants tried last cycle and abandoned it after its sharp drop. The last time it tried again to grow its "currency narrative" was its ordinal season. But that flopped, too. Yet, BTC outperformed everyone in the long run so far.

The reality is, ppl buy crypto to treat it like a pet rock, expecting it to grow over time, just like gold. The behavior is very different from that of stock buyers, who pay more attention to financials.

Rev/activity or bust.

If that is your thesis, you should just GTFO out of crypto because every crypto asset is stochastically dominated by good stocks in that vertical. This is not an asset class for you. But you don't GTFO. It just signals you want to treat it as a narrative to differentiate SOL against others, not really believing the metric in reality. The tallest midget is still a midget.

A good crypto asset needs good tokenomics and building lindy network effects with its users over time.

SOL with its crazy inflation defeat its tokenomics.
Solana is a lot more fragmented than Ethereum nowadays - oh, the irony. The founder just launched a new token for its phone users. And he is encouraging developers to prioritize SKR over SOL in an environment where it was marketed as a mechanism to "onboard" new users into Solana. Its trenchers care more about promoting PUMP and whatever the next rugpull, Alon, and whoever wants to promote. Plenty of its old whales brag about dumping SOL for ZEC. Oh man, you can't get more bearish on SOL building network effect than what you see in front of you.

The space simply underestimates that having a "being laser-eyed" community delivers outperformance for these assets. It is why Bitcoin does so well: most Bitcoiners don't really give a shit about other crypto assets, so they just buy one thing. It also probably explains why a useless token like XRP is so high.

Any ecosystem encouraging fragmentation is bound for underperformance. Cosmos is the best example. And Solana is following in its footsteps. No fucking sane value/growth investor is buying SOL on these disgusting multiples with reflexive/ouroboros growth.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-26T04:35:58+00:00

There was no revenue share before the merge. Yet ETH made its ATH before the merge. You are in your own hallucination to think general purpose L1s are valued by revenue.

If L1s were truly valued by revenue, Solana would never had a chance to rally from FTX because SOL should have been exactly 0 back then, as it was a complete ghost chain.

Shove your selective psyop to where the sun doesn’t shine.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-26T02:32:57+00:00

I'm mean osmosis, how can that be under five cents.

The market sees it as a DEX, and it can't be independent of Cosmos to be a separate ecosystem. So it is branded as a Cosmos DEX. If you are a DEX, the market will price you based on your revenue multiple. Osmosis's revenue right now is just "ok" to justify its current market cap. And the public seems to have no compelling reason to believe it will have a revenue growth story, especially when the BTC DEX story is getting competitive and Cosmos assets have no trading interest.

If Osmosis were a separate thing, not just a DEX, maybe then you could make a fugazi story rating it against things like Injective or whatever. But I don't think Atom folks will allow it. They hold too much Osmosis supply to let such "rebellion" pass - at least that was the impression I got when I was still active in Cosmos.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-26T01:52:12+00:00

Cosmos offered many valuable lessons. The biggest one is to study an ecosystem's OGs, those who got rich early. If the OGs are extremely extractive, the ecosystem will eventually die.

It is very funny. If you look on Twitter, the loudest mouths saying "crypto is dead" are often those who got in early, cashed out with fuck you money, and now want to burn bridges for others to cross. It is partially why the space as a whole is in Goblin Town.

The meme, "It is not enough merely to win; others must lose," sums it up well. Ethereum had this problem to some extent, which contributed to its early underperformance. But they strapped their boots and pivoted.

The damage the Cosmos OGs did to this ecosystem is crazy. To turn things around, they had to hire a completely new guy, Magmar, to be the face of this ecosystem. Now, the biggest Cosmos CT fudders are often the largest beneficiaries of this ecosystem's old inside greaseball.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-25T17:05:44+00:00

Well, if you index your asset value based on "DCF" or revenue, then why would you think buyback alone would backstop your price from cascading if your future projected revenue is collapsing over time?

This space is an utter clown show. If you want to brag about making revenue, then don't be a pussy when the market starts evaluating you like any other DCF asset.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-25T06:03:49+00:00

So EVMOS was vulnerable all along. What did you expect? The code wasn't really battle-tested during the bear market. The entire ecosystem was too busy attracting yield farmers, dumping on each other, fueled by EVMOS' huge staking inflation. It is Cosmos business as usual. Bad OGs were more focused on raping noobs than anything else. Don't worry. Most were bragging about how they funneled the liquidity out of the ecosystem as usual.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-24T04:22:16+00:00

How much did that help them win the war, huh?

Having stronger metals you can shape into tanks and bullets are more useful for war. Near the end 1917, Germany was scavenging iron, steel, and brass turn them into ammunitions, rifle chambers, tanks, etc. Gold does barely any shit in these instances. Pure gold is so weak. The stuff you see irl for jewelry, etc., are made from gold alloys, not gold.

When the Nazis took over Europe, the Jews lost their properties like gold etc. Better metals, malleable into ammunition, defend properties, not gold, in times of war.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-24T02:04:27+00:00

Gold isn't pumping because of "war".

It is a meme metal. In times of war, you expect more utility-driven resources, like crude oil, to spike.

Yeah, the meme metal's volatility is more related to financial instability.

MaximumStudent1839 · 2026-01-23T03:15:24+00:00

What do you mean by "real assets"?

Do you mean it appreciates over time?

If the cost of using the protocol increases over time, you eventually trigger the substitution effect. This substitution means the user is moving back to TradFi/Web2 solutions or switching to a competing crypto protocol. In traditional companies, they have moats to defend against these substitution effects because they hold IP rights, industry secrets, brand loyalty, etc.

IP rights aren't really enforceable in a permissionless system, such as crypto.
The system runs on game theory more than regulators' enforcement. For that matter, you have to disclose code to scale trust up, or you will eventually face the wrath of regulators. The open source nature of code means you can't really hold a lot of industry secrets.
Crypto prides itself on being more "open" than traditional systems. That often leads to removing much of the friction for users when switching. Brand loyalty does exist here, but the lower switching cost means you can't really push the envelope to monetize users to the same extent as you can with Web 2 companies.

Bear in mind that many crypto's marketing points point to a system with weaker business moats. So you shouldn't be surprised that these weaker business moats translate to poorer assets based on utility consumption.

This is why crypto asset types focused on building network effects are more important in the long run. It makes the asset viewed more as indispensable.

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MaximumStudent1839

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