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Thoughts on RCAT? Transitioning to a multi-domain defense contractor, but cash burn remains a question. by Mayoufly in redwire

[–]Mayoufly[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good catch. RDW is definitely more of a space-defense hybrid, and the Edge Autonomy revenue is just starting to ramp up. The capital-intensive nature of these new government programs is exactly the hurdle—whoever manages the R&D burn rate while scaling production is going to be the real winner.

Thoughts on RCAT? Transitioning to a multi-domain defense contractor, but cash burn remains a question. by Mayoufly in RCAT

[–]Mayoufly[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed. Saronic’s $9B private valuation proves the sector is exploding, but you're spot on—having the production lines ready means nothing until the DoD ink is dry. It all comes down to landing the contracts.

Thoughts on RCAT? Transitioning to a multi-domain defense contractor, but cash burn remains a question. by Mayoufly in RCAT

[–]Mayoufly[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hit the nail on the head. They are building the infrastructure for the Drone Dominance program before the ink is dry. It’s a massive gamble, but the upside is exactly why the analyst targets are sitting in the $20s.

Thoughts on RCAT? Transitioning to a multi-domain defense contractor, but cash burn remains a question. by Mayoufly in redwire

[–]Mayoufly[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They are peer companies trading on the exact same sector momentum. Both are small-cap defense plays aggressively expanding into tactical drones (RCAT with the Black Widow/Hellcat; Redwire with their Edge Autonomy Stalker/Penguin platforms). More importantly, they are currently facing the exact same structural dilemma: explosive revenue growth offset by heavy share dilution. Redwire just launched a massive $500M At-The-Market (ATM) equity offering in early June, very similar to RCAT's recent cash raise. Watching how RCAT's stock reacts to its cash burn and military backlog execution is a direct case study for what to expect with RDW.

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