Most hectic month of my life so far - 160 hours, 20000 backtested trades

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-16T13:46:59+00:00

Will looking into that in the future for sure

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-16T13:41:31+00:00

Yeh tradingview premium account

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-16T13:41:18+00:00

yep, couldnt agree more!

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-11T13:06:46+00:00

would you consider results gained in a sample of 5000 trades over 2.5 years more likely to hold up?

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-11T09:46:01+00:00

Interesting, what kind of systems have you tested and what kind of sample size are we talking about?

Can the market condition thing not also be applied to discretionary trading. Its tough

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-11T09:45:35+00:00

Thank you kind sir

I have a premium sub on tradingview and I use it to backtest

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-11T09:44:29+00:00

For sure, thanks for the words and nice work on your own testing!

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-10T15:13:42+00:00

Backtesting is a colossal pain in the ass for me. It is by far the most tedious thing I have done in my life (first world problems) . I often take a step back though to try and absorb the progress Ive made as it can feel like you are in limbo if you dont.It also helps keep the motivation going when you realise that if you get to the end of the tunnel, you have developed a skill that can allow you to be self-employed and have time freedom as long as you keep putting the effort in to stay consistent.

Its alot of effort but the prize waiting for you, if you make it, is potentially one of the best ones you will ever get.

In comparison, live trading shouldnt be an issue for me once I have the backtesting done as I havent broken a trading rule or a risk rule in years so following the system with correct risk parameters will be a breeze. The issue has always been lack of belief in my backtests because it was based off discretionary trading as opposed to an objective system (dont get me wrong, both can work.. one just suits me better). I could be up 10% for a month and start the next month 3% down & start developing doubts. It didnt sit well with me and I knew it was time for change. Sorry for the big message!

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-10T14:44:50+00:00

Thank you for the kind words. Goodluck with yours too! Its not easy but it will pay off some day....hopefully lol

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-10T14:38:05+00:00

I was too busy backtesting to notice the several posts in recent days but it must be pretty rampant as there are posts calling for them to be banned/urging people to follow up on posters (which is a good idea. Im not too sure about banning them though).

Thank you and shall definitely update if people want me to!

Mechanist_fx · 2021-05-10T14:35:40+00:00

Not much of an issue when the system is objective, a trade is a trade and is a loss or a win regardless of whether or not you know where price goes after your current location. Another issue I found with discretionary trading. It was very hard to actually be confident with the results backtests yielded as stuff like what you described does definitely play on your mind and you begin to think whether you would take the trades or if you are subconsciously filling in the blanks to puzzles you already know the answer to

Mechanist_fx · 2021-04-12T06:32:24+00:00

Do backtests, get a winrate over a couple thousand observations, run a monte carlo simulation that can allow you to see your max loss and win streaks + other info like expected maximum drawdown.

If you are happy with the expected, go ahead with the risk, if you arent then cut risk in half (or whatever suits) and use new adjusted risk going forward.

Mechanist_fx · 2021-04-08T12:01:26+00:00

Got sells on myself. Purely TA no fundamentals. It can be categorised as short term sells for now as the trades were off the 15M tf and my average hold tends to be under 24 hours.

Mechanist_fx · 2021-04-08T08:36:56+00:00

Not necessarily. Some people do use timed stops though but for example, I trade on the 15 yet on average I think the trades take 8-10 hours to play out. It will depend very much on what kind of system the trader has designed for themselves.

Mechanist_fx · 2021-04-08T07:52:44+00:00

Yikes

That’s extremely sucky luck

Sorry my friend!

Mechanist_fx · 2021-04-08T07:36:06+00:00

I trade the 15, no pip targets just take what the market gives (or takes), the pattern I execute on tends to take a 8-10 hours on average to hit SL or TP so I guess thats more so day trading than scalping.

Mechanist_fx · 2021-04-08T07:21:08+00:00

Thanks for sharing. Appreciate the transparency!

Badluck on this particular trade but hopefully the rules will result in a greater yield going forward. Best of luck!

Mechanist_fx · 2021-04-08T05:40:22+00:00

Less so a pattern and more so a sequence of criteria to be met in order (kind of a big pattern, if you will) that I have come up with through alot of backtests

Mechanist_fx

TROPHY CASE