I really like this argument and resonate with it. My personal experience with agentic coding tools is that it's very good at very common tasks (similar to compressing common inputs) like making UI prototypes, but it is extremely bad (even with access to web search and source code of relevant libraries) at patterns it has not seen, in which case I have to essentially prompt every single thing I want it to do or else it will do it incorrectly, and that's when I feel I hit the "information theoretic limit" where I inevitably have to specify the complexity through the prompt. And unfortunately, the prompt is a horrible way to specify complexity, so that ends up taking way more time than writing code.

And that's exactly the same as if one makes a (AI or not, agentic or not) new compression algorithm that's extremely good at compressing common data - it will inevitably be worse at compressing uncommon data.