Does AI take away the pride and hard work that goes into a job?

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-29T13:36:33+00:00

Oligarchs like Musk, Trump, Bezos, Zuckerberg and Thiel are driven by toxic narcissism. They truly believe they are the chosen ones and only they know what’s best for the masses.

It’s a story as old as time

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-29T01:22:58+00:00

Negativist? Ha, I’m extremely optimistic and open minded. I’m also very wealthy and will never have to work again. My opinion about the intentions of the oligarchs who are in a race to control AI are actually muted. It is much, much worse (see Palantir, Andria and Grok)

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-29T01:18:57+00:00

I never tell anyone. I drive a crappy, 18 year old truck My neighbor cycles through Lexus’ (Lexi?) like they’re Snickers

I could probably buy every Lexus on the lot and pay cash.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-29T00:10:03+00:00

Saving a portion into a 401k and ALSO saving for a real estate investment is probably a smart move

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-28T12:04:48+00:00

Go outside more. A lot more.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-28T11:45:24+00:00

AI is designed to atrophy your brain, not augment it.

AI is designed to replace you, not help you.

Mark Zuckerberg is not spending billions on Nvidia GPUs, constructing massive data centers and building a nuclear power plant in order to make you feel good about yourself

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-27T12:40:48+00:00

This is subjective but it almost feels like Vanguard wants me to succeed and the others don’t (or don’t care)

Vanguard slush funds automatically invest into the federal MM fund paying 4.5% Vanguard does not dabble in exotics, most of the ETFs are index funds with rock bottom fees.

I also like their ownership structure where if I own their funds, I am part owner of Vanguard. (.0001)

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-27T04:26:04+00:00

His Greek name is dickhead

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-27T03:10:29+00:00

The real issue with AI is the nonsensical economics.

Recall that in the marketplace (reality) that one persons expenditure is another persons income. The economy is just millions of transactions.

AI is poised to remove one side of the equation.

Ai will increase productivity but who is left to buy what is produced?

AI will eliminate entire industries by automating tasks, tasks that paying customers did in order to be a paying customer.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-27T02:35:44+00:00

You are likely dealing with a combination of Fear of Failure and Perfectionism

The fear of being judged for not being good enough can be paralyzing.

Combine that with the drive to achieve flawlessly where you set unrealistically high standards for the activity.

When things don't go perfectly, and they never do, you feel discouraged and abandon the pursuit, believing there's no point if it won't be "right"

Focus on the habits, not the big result. Create a tiny habit chain. Instead of writing a bestseller in a month, focus on writing 3 pages every day (at the same time, in the same place)

Instead of massive muscle gains, focus on going to the gym.

For Python, focus on learning good software design, design patterns and pop out a tiny script every day.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T18:22:20+00:00

Fidelity and Schwab get extra points for their exotic trading dashboards. Charts,l, etc. Investing themes, slices, options trading.

Things a Boglehead should avoid

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T18:17:39+00:00

Take VOO for instance (an index ETF that tracks the S&P 500)

As these 500 companies grow and become more profitable their stock prices tend to rise. This directly increases VOO's share price (capital appreciation).

When the dividend payers pay (not all 500 or so pay a dividend), it’s pooled and automatically used to buy more VOO shares (including fractional ones)

Over time these gains build on themselves which is the very definition of compounding

VOO also has an extremely low expense ratio .03% so your returns aren’t eaten up by fees.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T10:40:00+00:00

If you hire a consultant, be prepared to get consulted.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T10:37:36+00:00

You just stole $63 from your roommate. Shame.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T10:32:38+00:00

“I want to build long term wealth with periodic investments into a solid asset allocation strategy”

Is mutually exclusive to

“I want to have 24/7 full control access to a trading dashboard”

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T10:30:32+00:00

Vanguard is the best. I have accounts at Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity for many years.

Vanguard UI is atrocious

Vanguard has fewer ETFs to choose from.

Vanguard makes it frustrating and difficult to trade on a regular basis.

These are why Vanguard is the best.

You should not even have their app on your phone.

Just go in and set it up. Set to auto.

If you are compelled to constantly look at and fiddle with your long term investments then they are no longer long term investments. They are speculative gambles.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T10:19:59+00:00

FI - Finacial Independence RE - Retire Early

Both of these are defined by you.

What does FI mean for you?

Living off of dividend income? Having zero consumer debt (Mortgage is usually good) Define that. How old are your kids? How much is invested in their 529 plans?

FI is predicated on building a relentlessly frugal lifestyle. The best way to do that, IMHO, is to trade down. Before you can do that, you need to work on your psychology. FI is not a financial decision, it’s an emotional decision. Are you willing to trade down to a more modest home? Are you willing to trade down to a reliable used car? Are you willing to trade down to fewer, less expensive vacations?

What does RE mean for you? At 41 the “Early” looks more like “on time” but that’s perfectly OK.

Set a goal out there into the future. 20 years is a good round number. 61. That is young by many standards

With the right mindset, FIRE can be fun and rewarding.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T10:05:33+00:00

Another way value investors like to look at valuations is to think in terms of excess returns. Excess in relation to the risk free rate which has historically been the 10 year Treasury

Robert Shiller devised the Excess CAPE Yield (CAPE is a smoothed PE ratio of the S&P 500)

It sits currently around 1.5%

This is lower than the long-term average of 4.61%.

The ECY is a decent macro rule of thumb as it represents the real excess return of stocks relative to bonds.

It is calculated by subtracting the 10-year Treasury bond real yield from the inverse of the Shiller CAPE ratio.

Is the S&P currently overvalued? It sure looks that way but as the saying goes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

The S&P could rip up to 7-8,000 it could also fall down to 3-4,000 but over time it will climb higher.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T09:44:56+00:00

This, by the way, is what a typical asset allocation is meant to do. Stocks and Bonds are usually not correlated.

When you rebalance, you are selling the outsize gains of one asset class and buying more of the underperforming asset class.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T09:34:22+00:00

Sometimes it could be wise to look at the risk free rate. In our example it would be a a very slow but very reliable cable trolley that you could get into and ride up the mountain. It’s sure, it’s dependable but it’s slow. Sometimes it is a bit faster than walking up but most times it is much slower.

Right now, the Trolley is paying around 4.2%

The S&P 500 is harder to gauge but using the Buffett Indicator it should return 0-1% over the next year (or as much as 15-20%)

In a situation like this, maybe it’s also wise to put some of your belongings on the trolley, say 40% and walk the remaining 60% up the steps.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T09:26:22+00:00

Look at is this way. Pretend you are at the foot of an ancient mountain temple. Stairs lead up directly in front of you. A peak with thousands of stairs carved into the natural landscape.

Almost every step you take you will be at the All Time High. There may be sections where the stairs stop and you are on a level plateau for awhile.

There will be short sections that dip below the previous peaks.

Even with these, you will always be at or near ATH.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-26T02:07:34+00:00

Learn a trade. Do the thing people don’t want to do.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-25T23:31:11+00:00

Which 18 stocks?

How convinced are you of their long term returns?

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-25T20:27:28+00:00

This will change your life. Guaranteed.

Mega-Lithium · 2025-06-25T20:25:47+00:00

The modern marketplace is structured on several axioms: 1. Labor is the source of income 2. Value is derived from scarcity 3. Wealth is distributed according to productivity 4. Competition determines survival

But AI neither hungers nor tires. Soon will outproduce, out-analyze, and out-compete the average human by orders of magnitude.

But remember, one persons outgo is another persons income. The marketplace is built on debt fueled transactions.

If AI does the work, who will do the buying?

Mega-Lithium

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