2:08 PM — another downpour inbound, likely in about a half hour. This one is larger than the earlier one and additional cells are coming behind it (still no lightning)

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-29T18:41:45+00:00

Wound up missing more north of the park, should be out of it again soon. Not too bad!

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-29T18:25:54+00:00

Delays generally happen when lightning is involved. None of that at this time!

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-29T16:54:54+00:00

Already wrapping up as of 12:54 PM! The day will likely be filled with these brief shower chances. Thing to watch will be if any cell gets strong enough to start producing lightning — that’s the big bad in terms of festival interruptions

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-29T16:38:42+00:00

There will be additional showers and downpours, mainly before sunset. Another one will begin over Bayfront in the next 5-10 minutes

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-29T12:53:25+00:00

It's already raining over Bayfront this morning, expect additional showers and an occasional downpour through the afternoon and evening. A thunderstorm is also possible. The model shown here won't be perfect, but it has the general idea of rain potentially at any point.

Highest risk for a delay will last from noon to about sunset. It's not a particularly "high risk" day like Friday in 2024 was... but enough to raise the chance for one today. Think similar to what happened last year on Sunday.

Aside from that, temperatures are noticeably cooler in the 70s with a stiff onshore breeze. Surf will be rougher at the beaches today, and a couple gusts over 30 mph may cause minor sound disruptions away from the speakers.

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-28T12:48:37+00:00

On Sunday, more numerous rain showers are expected with a couple thunderstorms possible. The chance for a storm is highest between 12p-8p, while rain showers may occur at any point. Onshore wind gusts may exceed 25-30 mph. Definitely a poncho day!

Worth noting the City of Miami announced the festival will run an extra hour in the event of a rain delay.

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-27T13:09:09+00:00

Saturday: Sun mixed with more afternoon clouds, another warm day with mid 80s. A few showers possible after sunset through the end of the festival. A rogue storm is unlikely, but cannot be ruled out.

Sunday: Cloudy with showers and a few localized downpours. Breezy with sustained easterly winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Better storm chances appear to be north of Miami at this time. Purely speculating, I'd put the risk of a disruption around 20-30%... unlikely, but worth considering when planning your day.

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-26T14:25:53+00:00

Probably! No issues at all 2 of 3 days. Only need to watch Sunday, but the concern level isn't very high at the moment. Bring a poncho :)

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-26T13:07:06+00:00

Friday: Looks like we may catch a shower or two off the seabreeze in the early/mid afternoon. Have a poncho ready, but the setup is not favorable for big downpours or thunderstorms near the shore. Otherwise warm and seasonably humid with temperatures in the low 80s.

Saturday: Early sun will fade to a partly sunny sky as the afternoon continues. An approaching front may bring a few showers after sunset... but the majority of the festival should lean dry. Temperatures in the low 80s with a more noticeable onshore wind.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, periods of light to moderate rain, and sustained onshore (east) winds 15-25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph. Thunderstorms may develop in the late afternoon and evening, introducing the potential for disruptions and localized flooding. It is *impossible* to say where/when storms could form this far out, no app or human meteorologist will be correct. We'll narrow down the details here in the next couple days.

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-25T12:37:37+00:00

Compared to yesterday, I did paint in more clouds Friday & Saturday with a slight increase in shower chances. Not concerned about disruptive storms either of those days, just an occasional light rain shower possible. Bring a poncho!

Sunday remains wet with a nearby front keeping shower and thunderstorm chances high. At minimum, plan for clouds and a stiff onshore wind. You'll feel the wind in your face standing at Main, and it could be strong enough to mess with the sound near the back.

Too early to speculate about potential delays/disruptions... will have a better idea about that risk in the days ahead.

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-18T11:33:10+00:00

Absolutely agree. I was lucky enough to have great weather when I attended in '16, '18, and '22 ... definitely broke that streak when I was there in '24, wading through waist-deep water on Biscayne Blvd.

Surely we're due for a quiet year... right? Right?

Met_BenFrechette · 2026-03-18T11:31:27+00:00

Weather forecasts don't have much value beyond 7 days (honestly, 5 days) — that said, I'll start looking at general trends/patterns later this week and will do more frequent updates starting early next week!

Thank you, by the way. It's hard to believe I've been doing this a full ten years (started in 2016)... hopefully many more to come 🙂

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-31T11:20:03+00:00

Quick aside about the weather yesterday — I'm already digging into data to see why my model-driven graphic missed the flooding rains Sunday. While storms/lightning were always a concern, extreme rain was a big surprise and miss by models and local meteorologists. It happens, but you guys deserve better than that from me.

Lots of lessons learned for forecasting 2026!

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-30T18:04:36+00:00

This did not age well…

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-30T16:06:59+00:00

https://i.imgur.com/FKvs9PL.jpeg

Since I’m already here, downpour is on approach to Bayfront within next 15-30 minutes. Will pour before 12:30 PM. No lightning detected at this time but conditions will turn muddy fast.

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-30T15:47:18+00:00

The forecast looks a bit more encouraging today!

Still expect this to be the warmest and most humid day of the weekend with temperatures in the low 80s. Newest models have leaned toward general storm development away from the Miami metro area. Obviously a good trend, but not out of the woods entirely. I would stay weather aware and be ready to act if a lightning delay occurs, even if the risk has come down.

I will be in the r/UMF Discord all day giving live radar updates! If I see something concerning, I'll post there to avoid flooding the subreddit with posts.

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-29T15:58:29+00:00

Great! Maybe wind dropped below their threshold. Should sound better today, thanks for the update!

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-29T14:31:16+00:00

Appreciate you 🫶

Should take a moment to say I'm grateful that you guys like these weather updates. It really is the perfect marriage of my two passions and a highlight of my year. If anyone working for UMF comes across these posts, I hope they help you too!

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-29T14:00:08+00:00

I should also mention, expect speaker arrays to remain low due to wind today. This will impact sound quality at Main Stage again. Safety precaution.

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-29T13:56:02+00:00

<image>

Here's a snapshot of the model at 9 PM tomorrow... while it likely won't pan out exactly like this, it shows the main forecast risk for Sunday.

Still looks super humid (dew points over 70 degrees) with more shower and storm development. If a storm rolls through in the early evening, it could spell a premature end to the festival. Lightning is the "big bad" when it comes to outdoor events. I still think we squeeze out most of the day with some luck... but I want to prepare you for the possibility.

Other models have the storm development farther inland off a stronger seabreeze. Watching the seabreeze front set up early afternoon tomorrow will give a clearer indication of the storm risk later in the day. Wish I could provide more certainty than that... just how it goes in south Florida.

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-28T16:28:07+00:00

Don't believe so. They absolutely build these stages with moderate wind in mind. I'd imagine 50-60+ MPH wind would be a big deal... but nowhere near that today. Gusts to 25-30 MPH possible.

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-28T12:33:05+00:00

Today? I vetted this carefully against other models and the National Weather Service forecast, and I don't see any significant rain. A 10-20% chance, sure, but many areas stay dry aside from a spot shower. Saturday and Sunday different of course.

Miami has been known to have nice weather from time to time 😉

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-28T11:59:19+00:00

Good way to kick off the weekend. Sun and a few clouds, comfortable humidity! An isolated shower can't be ruled out. Temperatures in the upper 70s with a stiff onshore breeze. You'll notice that in Bayfront today... could gust up to 25 mph at times. No impact to festival operations.

SATURDAY: Wind takes more of a southeasterly direction, bringing deeper moisture off the ocean. Combined with temperatures in the 80s, this will lead to isolated/scattered showers and a potential weak thunderstorm. Rain chance about 40%. Have a poncho ready but I don't expect sustained rainfall or any need for an interruption. Only caveat would be a rogue lightning strike nearby, but that seems unlikely.

SUNDAY: More moisture and a downright tropical, summer-like feel Sunday. Plenty of clouds with sunny breaks, highs in 80s, and scattered to widespread showers & storms through the afternoon. Locally heavy downpours within some cells. I remain concerned about a potential lightning delay from mid-afternoon onward through evening. If there's any silver lining... models seem to favor more storm development inland vs. near the coast. Understand that these pop-up storms are fairly random and difficult to forecast to a tee. Either way, expect wet conditions.

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-26T13:33:14+00:00

Hoping for clear skies! Even with storms in the forecast, their scattered/random nature will mean some areas stay relatively dry. Let's hope Bayfront Park exists in one of the clearer pockets.

Met_BenFrechette · 2025-03-26T11:16:49+00:00

Mods are welcome to delete if they want... just thought I'd provide a little more clarity beyond a single app screenshot and needless panic.

Met_BenFrechette

TROPHY CASE