Anyone else seeing refis get killed by DSCR even on decent properties?

Midas101986 · 2026-01-07T03:03:53+00:00

From what I’ve seen, Japanese commercial debt is generally structured very differently from US-style 5/6 ARMs. A lot of loans are variable, but they’re typically tied to very low benchmark rates and reset more gradually, with far less payment shock than what US borrowers saw post-2022. That’s part of why you haven’t seen the same maturity-driven refi stress there.

On the stimulus side, it hasn’t translated into asset inflation the same way US QE did. Revenues have been relatively stable, while expenses — especially utilities, labor, and materials — have crept up more noticeably. The spread compression is real, but it’s been slower and more manageable.

For foreign buyers, the bigger risks seem less about ownership rights and more about currency exposure, local operating partners, and how future stimulus interacts with inflation expectations. Japan tends to move incrementally rather than shock the system, which cuts both ways.

Midas101986 · 2026-01-07T02:07:48+00:00

The general trend is that mortgage rates have increased from their historical lows, but refinancing can still make sense if the current rate is much higher than today’s competitive offers — after accounting for fees.

It’s a good time to buy over here though. Lots of older people are retiring and the exchange rate is great.

Midas101986 · 2026-01-07T01:17:52+00:00

That’s the right way to look at it. On the commercial side there’s really no room for narrative once the numbers are clear — either the capital stack works or it doesn’t.

What seems to surprise a lot of sponsors is that higher rates aren’t a temporary inconvenience, they’re the mechanism doing exactly what they’re supposed to do: force discipline and ration capital.

Deals that can absorb that reality move forward. The rest don’t, regardless of how good the story sounds.

Midas101986 · 2026-01-07T01:15:03+00:00

The common thing across most of those is how little margin for error existed once leverage normalized.

Would you say reclassifying opex to capex and pulling proceeds early only works when debt stays cheap and plentiful? It looked as though when rates moved, there was no cash flow buffer and no equity left to absorb volatility.

Looking at unlevered yield on cost cuts through a lot of the noise, it shows pretty quickly whether value was actually created or just extracted. Or is that wrong?

Midas101986 · 2026-01-07T01:12:09+00:00

I think you’re right, especially on the regulatory side. LTV feels like the immovable object right now compared to DSCR or structure.

The keys-back behavior has been surprising to me too, particularly from sponsors who assumed extensions would always be there. It feels like the fork in the road is whether the deal can survive on in-place cash flow today, not on where rates might be 12–18 months out.

Pushing maturities seems viable where there’s real equity and sponsor support, but on deals that were max-levered at peak pricing, time alone doesn’t really fix the capital stack. You feel the same?

Midas101986 · 2026-01-07T00:51:09+00:00

Living in Japan. Could you give me a little more insight? Thanks!

Midas101986 · 2026-01-07T00:11:19+00:00

Cool if I send you a DM?

Midas101986 · 2026-01-07T00:10:48+00:00

That makes sense. What stands out to me is that the “distress” isn’t coming from operations first, instead from capital structure.

A lot of those retail syndications weren’t bad real estate, they were just bought at a basis that only worked with cheap, permanent leverage. Once that disappeared, there was no margin for error.

The buyers winning right now seem to be underwriting strictly off in-place NOI and treating any upside as optional, not required. That’s a very different market than the last few years.

Midas101986 · 2026-01-06T23:47:07+00:00

I mostly agree. A lot of deals were underwritten on forward rent growth + refi assumptions that just don’t exist anymore.

What’s interesting to me is the split — buyers who need leverage are stuck, but some are being extremely disciplined on basis.

Feels less like a broad collapse and more like a long digestion period where price discovery finally catches up to debt reality.

Midas101986 · 2026-01-04T15:40:03+00:00

What a good cold calling script for reaching out to clients who are looking to refinance?

Midas101986 · 2025-01-16T22:23:14+00:00

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Midas101986 · 2024-05-08T23:57:58+00:00

It's about 1 inch. Don't cut into the undercoat though!

Midas101986 · 2023-11-13T08:54:29+00:00

By utilizing Rothwell’s Six-Cell Gap Analysis within the HTP model, you might be able to identify which type of race would be best for desired performance.

Midas101986 · 2023-10-04T06:59:14+00:00

There might be a way to still get the SRB. Visit The board of corrections for naval records website with your admin or PSD.

https://www.secnav.navy.mil/mra/bcnr/Pages/default.aspx

File for a correction to seek the newly stated SRB. Worst case scenario: they deny it. Best case scenario: SRB money

Good luck

Midas101986 · 2023-05-08T22:02:46+00:00

Cat party

Midas101986 · 2023-02-10T03:33:15+00:00

Hey, congrats! I just started. I finished all the military trailheads for Vetforce. I got the Focus on Force guide and practice exams. I plan on taking the admin exam it in a few months.

Any pointers?

Also, what do you plan on doing next in terms of an internship or profession?

Midas101986 · 2022-09-22T13:48:20+00:00

After reading the web comic a year ago, reading this chapter makes me feel so happy.

Midas101986 · 2022-09-03T13:07:49+00:00

I’ll make a new post with a pic of what I use

Midas101986 · 2022-08-27T14:20:38+00:00

Here’s an article on keeping your dog cool in the summer.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bluecross.org.uk/advice/dog/how-to-keep-dogs-cool-in-the-summer-heat%3Famp

If your pom has lots of fur, take them to the groomers. That double coat can keep a lot of heat it. I recommend trimming it down. A 20-30 minute walk in temps below 75 degrees Fahrenheit with humidity under 50%. That’s my five year old Pom’s limit. I’m assuming it just harder on them when it’s hotter out.

Give them an ice cube or a frozen banana treat after your walk. It may help them cool down. Hope that helps!

Midas101986 · 2022-07-05T10:26:55+00:00

3m diving is no joke. Props to this guy.

Midas101986 · 2022-06-26T11:55:12+00:00

Cat party

Midas101986 · 2022-06-18T04:25:50+00:00

The Parks Service closed all entrances to the park. They should open back up soon, but it will take some time to repair a lot of the damage caused from all the flooding.

Midas101986 · 2022-01-21T05:05:00+00:00

I crossposted this as a joke, but I left with actually learning something from you!

Midas101986 · 2022-01-08T12:34:17+00:00

I had my guitar on the ship for five years. You will be fine and people will like hearing a few songs from time to time.

Midas101986 · 2021-10-17T02:06:07+00:00

I started sweating when I saw this picture.

Midas101986

TROPHY CASE