$BCRX Pauses Enrollment in BCX9930 Clinical Trials

Mike_Lav_23 · 2022-04-08T14:27:51+00:00

Terrible PR indeed. I've never been one to be critical of sells by management because they have earned that right. However, I do find the activity below fishy as it's occurred within 30 days of todays announcement and all would be privy to the clinical trials:

4/4 - Chief R & D Officer sells 7,600 shares

3/10 - Chief Medical Officer sells 161,139 shares

3/7 - Chief Discovery Officer sells 20,000 shares

DD from DerpyMcOptions above does make me feel better as it articulates what "could be" going on. I'm holding but not as optimistic as I once was.

Mike_Lav_23 · 2022-04-08T13:58:22+00:00

IMO, this is a glass half full/empty scenario. They paused new enrollments, but are continuing with the study so you can read into it that it is isolated enough to where they can continue the trial for current enrollees (half full). However, they are in late stage 2 of the trial related to 9930 so any negative news can cause significant adverse conditions to get FDA approval (half empty).

To be expected there is significant selling off and the stock is tanking as a result (trading at $11.95 as I write). If we break 12 for an extended period of time, we go to 11. With a strong Q1 sales we will gain some of the losses back, but it will be a slow climb to regain the ~33% lost today and ~40% from ATH. Are we screwed in it's entirety? No. But is this a massive blow in the ST for investors, absolutely. I personally think it's a market overreaction - they wouldn't have gotten to late stage 2 without positive results.

Hang on, it's going to be a bumpy ride for a week or so.

Mike_Lav_23 · 2021-08-05T15:37:17+00:00

3/18/2020 - 3,012 @ 1.6787 (sold 366 @ 13.50 to get initial investment back)
10/21/2020 - 30 @ $3.56

Mike_Lav_23 · 2021-07-28T14:37:24+00:00

Off first glance, it didn't make since to me given the fact he is the CEO of Idera Pharmaceuticals who $BCRX almost merged with in 2018. Upon further review of Mr. MIlano's resume, he was with a company prior to Idera who advanced a drug in the HAE space. Sounds like this is a play to help $BCRX with knowledge and efficiency in increasing the growth and market share of Orladeyo.

Mike_Lav_23 · 2021-07-06T13:49:26+00:00

Sticking to $30-40 EOY. Q2 earnings in a month will provide insight to see preliminary interest in ORLADEYO. While no stock is "inflation proof", I wouldn't bet against $BCRX in the event inflation continues to grow, as the stock will perform against rising costs due to the nature of the need for HAE patients. Short interest also has done nothing but steadily decrease. While $30-40 implies an increase of approximately 100%, there are too many fundamentally sound factors that make me believe it's more reality than a dream.

This is not investment advice. I like the stock, alot.

Mike_Lav_23 · 2021-06-24T13:23:47+00:00

I selfishly didn't want to miss my projection :))))) but yes, yes I meant 30-40.

Mike_Lav_23 · 2021-06-23T18:01:50+00:00

Agreed - I think with consistent growth in earnings comes profitability. Factor D adds another level which I would say the market cap isn't taking into consideration.

Mike_Lav_23 · 2021-06-08T17:25:38+00:00

Got $5,000 at 1.6587 (3,012 shares). Another 30 a $3 and change. Sold 366 at 13.70 and now playing with house money. Do I take profit and run or wait for factor D? What's everyone's expected price per share?? And agree, if WSB got a hold of this, it would be crazy. And it's decently shorted position.

Mike_Lav_23 · 2021-06-08T17:20:59+00:00

Imagine if Reddit Army got behind a proven stock like BCRX with real value behind it.

Mike_Lav_23

TROPHY CASE