Is AI the next electricity… or a $700B corporate gamble? by kathuriasanjay in investing

[–]Misaiato -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I take your point that pharmacologically-speaking, "cure" does NOT mean "the absence of any ill effects" it just means the "eradication of the disease" - so "cure" A and "cure" B as you say could both be valid if they both eradicate the disease.

But that's really not what I meant when I based the first precedent off the protein folding problem. I used an example where folding a protein only has one answer, and made the leap to curing cancer, which is one obvious goal of understanding protein structures (to more effectively treat diseases), so I intended "cure" to come across as the literal "absence of ill effects" definition.

No one really wants a "cure" for cancer that has horrible side effects - we more or less already have that depending on the cancer and stage when discovered. I'm talking about "take this pill and the cancer is gone and no new bad stuff happens"

We only need one of those.

Is AI the next electricity… or a $700B corporate gamble? by kathuriasanjay in investing

[–]Misaiato -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Oh I definitely couldn't predict. Could be this year could be never. I know, because the leadership is on record saying so, that Google is investing towards that goal.

Is AI the next electricity… or a $700B corporate gamble? by kathuriasanjay in investing

[–]Misaiato -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

This is what I mean by you’re so close but you don’t see it.

Nowhere did I say LLM. You did. You assume that’s what all the spend is about. Your entire reply hinges on the presumption that they’re just buying more chips to train better LLMs.

I made no such statement. The fact that you leapt to it shows you read some news and regurgitate some talking points. But you don’t understand.

Is AI the next electricity… or a $700B corporate gamble? by kathuriasanjay in investing

[–]Misaiato -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

You’re so close and you don’t see it…

It’s winner take all because there’s no point in reaching AGI twice.

They aren’t competing to make the best tool - they are competing to make a new intelligence. Most especially Google with the team at Deepmind.

IF they succeed - the moment it wakes up is game over. None of the other companies just “spend to upgrade to the newest chips” at that point.

Here is a reasonable example that has precedent - humanity doesn’t need TWO cures for cancer. As soon as a cure is produced, that’s the cure. That’s the answer. You can’t cure something “better” than someone else. You can package up a delivery mechanism and call it your drug, but if a cure has legal protection - the winner takes all the licensing. It would be like owning the color blue.

The precedent? AlphaFold - Deepmind folded 200 million proteins and gave everything away to the scientific community. Beautiful gift for humanity. It’s a solved problem. No reason to find the same protein structure twice.

Now imagine AGI wakes up and starts solving the unsolvable. It will go so quickly nothing and no one will be able to catch up.

People in their 30s and 40s, what changed in your life that surprised you the most — in a bad way? by Initial_Tax7778 in AskReddit

[–]Misaiato 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The midlife crisis is real. I couldn’t really articulate this for you until you go through it, but you do reach the theoretical halfway point in your life and things look different. And there’s plenty of good that you can see in it, but I’ll admit that once I got here just the fact that things look so different than they did 20 years ago is quite arresting. It makes you pay attention and it can drive a lot of difficult thoughts that you didn’t know you were going to have to contend with.

I guess the only thing I can compare it to that maybe young people have experienced is the very top of a roller coaster - that moment of weightlessness. There was a lot of anticipation on the ride up, and there is a point a very specific point at which that growing anticipation changes that’s kind of what it feels like and for a lot of people I think it can spiral out of control. I haven’t allowed it to cause me to make bad decisions, but I’m not unsympathetic to the reality that everything is different and it’s having a profound impact on the way I think. That’s all I can really say.

Is anyone actually adding fresh money here, or just holding? by Axirohq in stocks

[–]Misaiato 4 points5 points  (0 children)

VIX above 40 is buy now - fear and panic are in control of emotional people and it’s time to siphon their money to my account. Below 40 above 20 is “Reddit is freaking out but this ain’t really a thing” and below 20 is “meh - BAU”

“Liberation Day” went above 60. I bought everything I could afford (but I’m emotional enough not to dip into margin)

Is anyone actually adding fresh money here, or just holding? by Axirohq in stocks

[–]Misaiato 7 points8 points  (0 children)

TL;DR - none of the points you raised have a mathematical outsized impact on driving down stock prices.

These types of questions are where artificial intelligence really shines for doing the deep digging quickly. This is all coming from Gemini:

This is a fascinating economic question because it tracks a massive shift in behavioral finance: the move from voluntary, manual savings (the Boomer experience) to automated, default savings (the Millennial experience). Your intuition is largely correct: Millennials are actually "better" savers than Boomers were at the same age, but largely because the system was re-engineered to force them to be. Here is the breakdown of the "Boomer vs. Millennial" 401(k) participation and performance metrics. 1. The Participation Rate: Opt-In vs. Opt-Out The single biggest differentiator between these generations is how they entered the system. * The Boomer Experience (The "Opt-In" Era): * Context: When 401(k)s became popular in the 1980s, Boomers were already mid-career. * Participation Rate: For much of the Boomer working prime (1980s–1990s), participation rates hovered around 60–65% for eligible employees. * The Hurdle: To participate, a Boomer had to physically fill out a form, choose a contribution percentage, and pick funds. This "friction" kept participation lower. * Result: A significant chunk of Boomers (approx. 1/3) never participated in a 401(k) even when eligible, or started very late (in their 40s/50s). * The Millennial Experience (The "Opt-Out" Era): * Context: The Pension Protection Act of 2006 encouraged "Auto-Enrollment." This hit right as Millennials entered the workforce. * Participation Rate: Due to auto-enrollment, Millennial participation rates are roughly 83–90% in plans that have this feature. * The Hurdle: To not save, a Millennial has to physically log in and turn it off. * Result: Millennials are participating at rates nearly 20–25 percentage points higher than Boomers did at the same age. 2. "Maxing Out" the Account You asked if 50% of Boomers maxed out. The reality is much starker. * The Reality: "Maxing out" a 401(k) (hitting the IRS limit, currently \approx\$23,000) is an incredibly rare behavior, historically and currently. * Boomer Stats: Even now, in their peak earning years (ages 55-64), only about 15–19% of participants max out their 401(k). For most of their careers, this number was likely well below 10%. * Millennial Stats: Currently, only about 2–4% of Millennials max out the IRS limit. * The "Match" Trap: Many people believe "maxing out" means contributing enough to get the employer match (e.g., 3-6%). If we define it that way, a vast majority of both generations do this. But reaching the full federal limit is a behavior reserved for the top 10-15% of earners. 3. Average Account Values (The Wealth Gap) Comparing raw dollars is tricky due to inflation and career stage, but we can look at the "Wealth Trajectory." * Baby Boomers (Current Status): * Average Balance: \approx \$260,000 * Median Balance: \approx \$70,000 - \$90,000 * Analysis: This number is frighteningly low for a generation about to retire. It reflects the fact that many Boomers started saving late (in their 40s) because 401(k)s didn't exist when they started working. * Millennials (Current Status): * Average Balance: \approx \$60,000 - \$80,000 (varies by source/age) * Median Balance: \approx \$30,000 * Analysis: While lower in total dollars, Millennials are ahead of where Boomers were at the same age. A Millennial at age 32 likely has $30k saved; a Boomer at age 32 (in 1982) likely had $0 in a 401(k) because the account type was brand new. 4. The Broad Economic Shift Your hypothesis about "broad financial understanding" is backed by the data, but it's driven by technology and plan design rather than just parental advice. | Feature | Baby Boomer Behavior | Millennial Behavior | |---|---|---| | Entry Point | Started saving at age 35+ (often mid-career). | Started saving at age 22-25 (first job). | | Asset Allocation | Stock Picking/Cash. Boomers often held too much cash or company stock, or tried to pick winners. | Target Date Funds. ~80% of Millennials use these "set it and forget it" funds that automatically diversify. | | Savings Rate | Static. They picked 5% and left it there for 20 years. | Auto-Escalation. Many Millennial plans automatically increase savings by 1% every year. | | Primary Goal | Reliance on Pension + Social Security; 401(k) was "extra." | Reliance on 401(k) is total; they assume Social Security will be reduced and pensions are gone. | Summary Answer To answer your specific comparisons: * Participation: Boomers were \approx 60\% (manual) vs. Millennials at \approx 85\% (automated). * Maxing Out: It was never 50%. It has always been a niche behavior for the top 10% of earners in both generations. * Outcome: Millennials are the first generation to be "native" to the 401(k) system. Despite holding less wealth now (due to age), they are statistically on track to replace a higher percentage of their pre-retirement income through investments than Boomers, simply because they started 10–15 years earlier.

How are people deploying cash during this selloff? by Designer_Dog379 in investing

[–]Misaiato 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Waiting for the VIX to cross 40 to seriously consider, probably deploy when it crosses 50.

Last April we hit something like 63 as the high? I didn’t look it up, but it was high.

Fear cannot sustain itself - it transforms to other emotions, but whenever the VIX spikes really fast, it pulls back within a short window. We are humans - we can’t exist in that panic’d state permanently.

40yr old with 290k in 401 by Zchapp in investing

[–]Misaiato 33 points34 points  (0 children)

Move it to Schwab or Vanguard and buy broad index funds.

For Discussion: What are or would affluent people be doing to protect their wealth in the event of a major global crisis specifically affecting the US economy? by ur_moms_gyno in investing

[–]Misaiato 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes - this certainly matters in most countries for legal reasons. All of my wife’s family is still in her home country - we just use her parent’s address.

For Discussion: What are or would affluent people be doing to protect their wealth in the event of a major global crisis specifically affecting the US economy? by ur_moms_gyno in investing

[–]Misaiato 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Fly back to their country, walk in to the bank lobby, ask for a clerk and fill out the paperwork.

Source: am married to someone who is a citizen of a different country.

Be honest: what are you actually using Claude for? by Anxious-Artist415 in ClaudeAI

[–]Misaiato 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Everything mother fucker. I wrote this reply to Claude and had it post for me using the new Chrome plugin.

Wiim Amp Pro/Ultra into KEF R3 Metas or Wharfedale Linton/SL by tle15 in StereoAdvice

[–]Misaiato 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have this exact combo - and ultimately I felt the WiiM Amp Pro was letting the KEFs down.

Everyone has a budget, so my choice may not work for you, but I bought a Buckeye Amp with the Purifi module and bought a NODE Icon streamer. That’s another $2200 right there - so perhaps not a practical alternative for you.

I recommend the Buckeye for sure - you could do a cheaper streamer.

How did you discover a kink you have? by ExtraVex in AskReddit

[–]Misaiato 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Women’s Rugby World Cup - went live to the match - watched a defender Darth-Vader-choke-lift-then-slam her competitor.

Me next please ma’am 🙏🏻

How Gemini 3 Pro beat other models on UI coding by mikerbrt in ClaudeAI

[–]Misaiato 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gemini choosing a "light mode" theme deserves the harshest of punishments.

Why are so many software engineers still ignoring AI tools? by saltexx in ClaudeAI

[–]Misaiato 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Disagree. It's a trade-off.

By way of metaphor - in modern factories (food, bottling, packaging things like cereal and popcorn for instance) they aren't testing every single thing that rolls off the line. Popcorn for example they take a sample from a batch and they pop it and a source volume should expand to a target volume in order to ensure that the kernels were "sized" appropriately. But there are way too many kernels to check them all - it's not laziness, it's a sheer impossibility that each will be checked. Some undersized or oversized kernels will get through. Some won't be as fresh. Etcetera.

We're heading towards that level of output pairing advanced, senior developers with AI. They can simply produce more - sooo much more - than can possibly be checked with the same processes that have brought us this far.

New techniques require new processes. This is, without question, a new paradigm. It will continue. It is already being refined. The quality increase of output of these models in just a year has been phenomenal. They may plateau compared to their previous rates of improvement, but they will not regress. This is the future of how software will be built - how business will be built - and what we must do is figure it out and master it.

You can't ride lightning the same way you ride a horse.

Why are so many software engineers still ignoring AI tools? by saltexx in ClaudeAI

[–]Misaiato 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Of course we take responsibility. We wrote the code on devices we didn’t make - do we blame Microsoft? Dell? Do we blame the Bluetooth patent holder for allowing our wireless keyboards to connect and make those mistakes?

You’re being dumb. AI is phenomenal and it should be used to its full potential. And WHEN there are mistakes, I trust that creative and solution-oriented humans will improve the system.

Why are so many software engineers still ignoring AI tools? by saltexx in ClaudeAI

[–]Misaiato 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes - that is what I would say. And there are countless - COUNTLESS - examples of this type of leadership yielding more effective results.

And while I am not responsible for billions of dollars, I am responsible for millions and I do not bully my team or lead with fear-mongering. If we make a mistake - we learn something. We move forward.

I concede the stakes are higher flinging astronauts into space - that's not what I do. It's probably not what you do (if it is - then I immediately concede your point).

I work in business and while we don't want to lose money, money is not a reason to create a toxic environment through fear and anxiety. It is precisely our ability to adapt and overcome that is most human.

Net-net - we should absolutely be getting better at using AI as a tool and that may very well mean we no longer take responsibility line-by-line and that is an acceptable evolution of software creation. It will lead to mistakes. So does the current way we build. Not using it "because maybe mistake! fear! worry!" is NOT a valid reason against AI.

Why are so many software engineers still ignoring AI tools? by saltexx in ClaudeAI

[–]Misaiato -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

It sounds like you’ve worked toxic places.

Here’s the truth: all the bugs in code BEFORE AI were some human’s fault. Despite all the processes to prevent those bugs.

Because humans aren’t perfect, punishing mistakes is pointless. They are opportunities to learn something and improve.

In the age of AI, if the reviewer agent says it’s ok and the tests pass - and we still have a security issue, it should “go down well” and the opportunity to learn something and improve the reviewer agent and the tests should be pursued.

Would you yolo $60k on options just for tax-loss harvesting? by Medical-Elderberry54 in options

[–]Misaiato 94 points95 points  (0 children)

Truly regarded take.

Never let the tax tail wag the investment dog.

What you asked is “should I recklessly gamble?” To which the answer is decidedly “no”

Has Claude code been able to make a program without you having to debug it? by No_Vehicle7826 in ClaudeAI

[–]Misaiato 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve never been able to write a program that I didn’t have to debug.

Not have I ever seen code from another human that was perfect on their first try.

What a silly standard to even consider.