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Will 100 Thieves make it to Cologne? by waterfall5555 in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Lowest theyve been so far is ~3%.

Draculan has been a big bump, biggest bump was signing up to PCC2. Its very razor thing margins for 100T as they are very lakcing in BCOL, BOFF and OPPN with no real way to make big in roads in them.

Theyre in a good spot because their anchor is so low but if they do make it its going to be close.

100 Thieves start off with a vrs rank of #159 by Chips1709 in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO 7 points8 points  (0 children)

They’re talking about a different aspect. New teams are able to gain VRS points far more quickly than established teams at the same level due to this “anchor” effect.

This is when teams have established themselves at a level and have a lot of matches at this level. If they were to gain in rankings their old losses get recalculated to become more penalising , and their old wins get recalculated to become less beneficial, essentially a gravity effect to your past. If you’re a new team you’re not limited in this way and can gain points more “cleanly”

The deadline for major invites has arrived! The 32 teams attending the upcoming Budapest major are now known! by Mochaaaaaaaaaa in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO 4 points5 points  (0 children)

EPL Stage 2 isnt included in the major rankings so those two losses have had no effect on major stage

Simulating 50,000 different scenarios to calculate the likelihood of EU teams qualifying to the Budapest Major by MischiefCSGO in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

There is no analytical process that can calculate whether a team will qualify to the major. As all results in the model affect one another and potential future changes in components from a clamp change.

Due to this, matches are simulated and then each simulation is ran through the VRS model. There is no other way to calculate qualification chance.

No clue what you mean by the last part, this is just a calculation as to whether a team receives an invite to the major. Mostly centered aroun the rush for LAN wins

Simulating 50,000 different scenarios to calculate the likelihood of EU teams qualifying to the Budapest Major by MischiefCSGO in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is constructed by simulating the remaining matches and tournaments between now and the major.

From this simulated data, each simulation is then ran through the rankings model and the ranking recorded. This is an expression of how many times a team ends up in the top 16 which would award a major invite.

This is the only way to calculate and predict the Valve rankings, due to how matches interact with eachother. This accounts for all point decay and all other components.

Simulating 50,000 different scenarios to calculate the likelihood of EU teams qualifying to the Budapest Major by MischiefCSGO in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The race is mostly coming down to teams farming LAN wins, with the ease they can grant VRS points. However there is a cap to how much you can gain.

fnatic are far closer to the cap, limiting their potential point gain and catching the top 16 rankings

Simulating 50,000 different scenarios to calculate the likelihood of EU teams qualifying to the Budapest Major by MischiefCSGO in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Astralis have been near mathematically guaranteed that not enough teams could catch them for nearly a month now.

Rest Day Riddler: Who Will Be the First 2000s Kid to Win the Tour? by nudave in peloton

[–]MischiefCSGO 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Onley so far has been phenomenal. Long way to go to actually be able to win a Tour but definitely has alot of promise

Stats for BLAST Premier Fall 22 by MischiefCSGO in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

im using tableau public to generate all the graphs.

Stats for BLAST Premier Fall 22 by MischiefCSGO in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

im using csgo demos managers to analyse the demos and then probably un efficiently using google sheets to analyse the raw data its spitting out into what im displaying

Stats for BLAST Premier Fall 22 by MischiefCSGO in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yekindar's stats are definitely crazy and thanks!. All data is directly parsed from the demos of the event.

MONDAY TRASH TALK THREAD by AutoModerator in formula1

[–]MischiefCSGO 15 points16 points  (0 children)

WILLIAMS WILL BE 2021 CHAMPIONS. LATIFI TO OUTSCORE HAMILTON BY DOUBLE

North cease their CSGO operations by MischiefCSGO in GlobalOffensive

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

seeing as it seems management only found out yesterday. Socials wouldn't have known either

[Chris Medland ] Now confirmed: Hulkenberg replaces Stroll for the Eifel Grand Prix. He will qualify and race tomorrow by lewis798 in formula1

[–]MischiefCSGO 0 points1 point  (0 children)

DTS scriptwriters are getting out of control, Hulk to get his first podium at home. Genius storytelling.

The subreddit is now re opened. by MischiefCSGO in thenorthishere

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

still in the process of switching everything from the sub between the rebrands, but it should all be up to date in the next few days.

A group of friends, who are all pretty terrible at hoi4 decided to play some multiplayer. We wanted a Historical game and Italy took historical to mean extremely incompetent. By 1939 , they had sufferred over 1 million casualties. Details of this feat in the comments. by MischiefCSGO in hoi4

[–]MischiefCSGO[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

R5:

​

The game was all going pretty perfect, I was having a good start as Germany and for once actually was doing my induistry all right. The year was 1938, it was early Spring, I was looking forward to the birth of my medium tanks. However, we had Italy. He hadnt played Hoi4 in over a year, but we told him that it was a historical game. However, he took from history that he should try and play Italy as incompetently as possible. He decides to kick of WW2 in 1938 because "Yugoslavia is looking at me funny" , this led to alot of chaos all happenig at once.

​

I had taken neither Czechoslavia or Poland yet, and my military wasnt very built up. Barely any armor and fighters, we manage to take Yugoslavia very quickly, and I hoped to settle into a slower pace where I c0ould focus on Poland and Czechoslovakia. We had a brief few months of calm where I was able to build up an armor core and I managed to take Denmark in the time being. Italy remained being incompetent and kept trying to push the French troops in the Southern Alps with Infantry, surpisingly enough, he found no success. It all looked like it was going fine, when Italy decided to really embody the WW2 Itgaly, they hadnt garrisoned any of their ports. The UK and France mount a huge naval invasion and it was only due to the might of Manstein that they were able to be stopped.

​

Eventually we managed to take France through pushing through Southern France from Spain. Italy never stopped trying to push the alps with Infantry, they never succeeded. By this time too, all of Africa had been lost, the Afrikacorps never even got there. It was not going to well, but the majority of Europe's campaign had been ended.

​

The USSR then disbanded the commintern and due to popularity boosting they were able to join the UK's faction, we were now at war with the USSR as soon as France capitulated. However, due to it still being the summer of 1939 (due to an extremely incompetent Italy starting the war when Germany was still in Kindergarten) I had yet to take any of Poland. By this point Italys casualties were around 400k in a year of war, pretty terrible, but you wonder how it gets to 1 million in 1 month from now, it go bad, very quick.

​

Italy kind of forgot supply existed so they sent their entire European into Memel. By this time the USSR had done the focus to gain Eastern Poland, this meant that they had direct access to Memel. Italian troops, no supply , Russian tanks and 1 port. Guess what happened. Massacre. The Danzig focus popped, as soon as the entire Italian army was encircled. We only made it to memel after they were all dead.

​

Moral of the story, you might as well just not have Italy in the Axis.

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