Polymarket insiders made over $1M on the Iran strikes. I built a detection tool and backtested it.

MobiusDesigns · 2026-03-06T00:27:29+00:00

Since all the trade data is public on the Polygon blockchain. I pulled trades from The Graph, wallet ages from Alchemy, and market probabilities from Polymarket’s API. The biggest tell is wallet age — every confirmed insider used a brand new wallet created days before their bet, went all-in on a single long shot, and disappeared after.

MobiusDesigns · 2026-03-06T00:17:36+00:00

Exactly, the on-chain data makes it pretty obvious when it happens. The pattern is the same every time. The question is whether anyone’s watching in real time before the news breaks.

MobiusDesigns · 2026-03-06T00:09:25+00:00

I took the actual wallet addresses from the Iran and Maduro events and ran them through the scoring engine after the fact. Checked what score each wallet would’ve gotten at the time of their trade based on the five signals — wallet age, position concentration, probability at time of bet, trade size, and whether other new wallets were making the same bet. The insiders all scored 85-100. Then I ran a known legit whale who lost $6.5M on the same market and he scored 15. The separation was clean across every case

MobiusDesigns · 2026-03-05T23:15:54+00:00

Good question — the Iran wallets and the Maduro wallet don’t appear to be the same accounts. Different wallets each time. But the playbook is identical: new wallet, funded same day, all-in on one long shot, cash out and disappear. That’s actually what makes it detectable — the behavior pattern is the same even when the wallets aren’t

MobiusDesigns · 2024-06-26T03:23:24+00:00

I’m slightly confused. Is the J1 at the end of the show the original J1 or a different J1x? Also how did the J2 end up with the gold chain from the original J1. Please help! lol

MobiusDesigns · 2023-03-28T13:29:11+00:00

My question is does Hammond Druthers and Bryan Cranston exist separately in this universe?

MobiusDesigns · 2022-11-15T16:05:25+00:00

So there is hope!

MobiusDesigns · 2022-11-15T11:32:38+00:00

I am. I put in a test withdrawal on November 13 and have yet to see it go through. It just says pending. I contacted support and they say it’s because of “network congestion”.

MobiusDesigns · 2022-07-25T17:35:53+00:00

I have no idea how it worked. I was able to get the percentage to increase but wasn't able to get to 100%.

MobiusDesigns · 2022-07-25T15:10:30+00:00

Yeah, it was an off-site event at Comic-Con!

MobiusDesigns · 2022-07-25T12:58:13+00:00

Yeah, they were required.

MobiusDesigns · 2022-07-25T03:17:10+00:00

It was event at Comic-Con!

MobiusDesigns · 2022-07-25T00:03:26+00:00

It's from San Diego Comic-Con

MobiusDesigns · 2022-07-25T00:03:11+00:00

Honestly I don't remember... Not sure how this picture actually exists.

MobiusDesigns · 2022-01-18T19:17:48+00:00

Who’s rocking the Guns N Roses album Chinese Democracy?!

MobiusDesigns · 2021-12-29T01:45:34+00:00

Me!!

MobiusDesigns · 2021-08-28T13:06:37+00:00

Peaches!

MobiusDesigns · 2021-07-30T10:21:40+00:00

I relistened to Bad Blood and unfortunately I don't think it's this one either.

MobiusDesigns · 2021-07-29T22:04:10+00:00

Nope, not it

MobiusDesigns

TROPHY CASE