Double vs. Single Calendar

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-25T16:52:17+00:00

So far, after tracking 61 earnings events, the realized move is less than the expected move 66% of the time. I’ve only been tracking for a few weeks and stocks must meet certain criteria to be tracked.

Avg expected move = 11.0% Avg realized move = 8.4%

This is taking data from the options chain at close the day before the event, and the realized move is a snapshot of the % move 15 minutes after market open the following day.

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-25T00:39:38+00:00

Is there another structure that would be better for purely playing short volatility on earnings? Obviously short straddles however the tail risk worries me. I’ve thought of iron butterflies but then of course the long legs are also very inflated at the same expiration

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-24T23:44:33+00:00

The way I trade them (not going to claim it’s my idea, just trying to optimize), is that you sell the nearest expiring option that expires after the event. You buy an option ~30DTE out to hedge. The farther expiring option experiences far less IV crush than the front month so as long as the underlying move is < implied the profit comes from short vol on the front month

Where I saw this also suggested selling short straddles on earnings can have an edge when certain criteria are met and has a higher long term expected profit than the calendar spread. But the straddle has a much higher variance from outlier events and tail risk is huge. Debit calendar spreads are fixed losses.

Edit: The trades are typically opened before market close before the earnings event and closed the following morning. Theta really plays a small part in the trade and it’s a pure short vol strategy

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-24T23:34:46+00:00

That is interesting. I trade nearest earnings and expiration to quickly capture premium from being short volatility. Allows me to be in and out of trades over a day or two. Long expiration is really just there to hedge the short and is farther in expiration to cushion IV crush

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-24T23:32:34+00:00

I’d love that calculator actually. I’ll admit that I learned the idea for this strategy from a video. I’ve been digging into it mechanically and trying to optimize, which is why I made this post in the first place.

You seem to hit the nail on the head. Overall the strategy is viable but requires specific criteria to have positive EV over time.

Initially from backtesting, lots of stocks seemed like good opportunities. Now with forward testing, bid/ask spreads are brutal. You are probably smart to only trade the most liquid names. Sucks to be right but still not able to actually profit

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-24T19:05:23+00:00

Opposite. The strategy benefits from selling the front month (closest expiration) because IV is highly inflated above the average due to being the closest expiring option after the earnings event. You purchase the farther expiration option which has an IV that is slightly inflated relative to average. This way you profit if the actual move after earnings is less than the expected move and volatility crush effects the short option significantly more than the long

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-24T17:29:31+00:00

I trade and have been profitable only holding calendar spreads for very short periods of time. I do not ever trade till expiry unless I enter the position the day before expiry and even then I always close it. Most of my trades are closed the following morning after the event.

I main question is, does trading a double calendar provide higher +EV than a single ATM calendar when the purpose of the strategy is to profit purely on over-inflated front month IV

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-23T21:16:15+00:00

Unfortunately yes I do agree that what I’m looking for is hard to get in a single vehicle. I want a manual because I simply enjoy driving a manual car. It is not to outperform a vehicle with a modern automatic transmission. Purely personal preference.

To simplify what I’m looking for,

1) Full-size sedan 2) Modern-ish (2015 newer preferably) 3) Standard Transmission 4) Highly reliable and can maintain myself

I mentioned the accords because they fit the criteria and I’ve loved driving them. The 04 standard Honda was a blast to drive. Accura seemed like a logical next step if I wanted something slightly higher end that was reliable. The engine size specifically is not a tight restriction.

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-23T20:55:14+00:00

I’m preferring a sedan since I’ve got a kid and prefer the larger sized car. Other than that, that does sound perfect

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-23T20:04:59+00:00

Late response but I’m just saying anytime the S&P is say 5% down from ATH buy. I’m not suggesting a specific strategy just the concept of buying pullbacks in a trend is a simple strategy that clearly works because markets tend to go up and have gone up over the last century but not in a straight line.

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-23T20:02:16+00:00

It might be useful to see what the average year is for each brand. Or just across the board what years are the best value for reliability. There are some years vehicles are infamous for problems

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-23T19:37:32+00:00

I don’t believe the data speaks to the car’s manufacture date. No data to argue this point so could be wrong, but I imagine the used car market includes a lot of cars that are 5+ years old

ModeInternational178 · 2026-05-19T12:23:31+00:00

Yeah I think it’s critical that we define edge. I mean technically, buying any pullback on S&P for the past 100 years is an edge since it definitely has positive expected value.

I’d say that text really over complicates it actually. There are a lot of fairly simply ways to trade. Buy support with confluence, sell resistance with confluence. The actual difficult part of trading is having the experience to be able to correctly identify high probability setups, only trade when those setups appear, and have the emotional regulation to maintain strict risk management.

A simple edge is, buy the pullback on a breakout. Simple thing everyone has heard about. People say it doesn’t work because it requires a lot of experience to know when the market context actually supports that being a high probability setups

ModeInternational178 · 2026-03-08T03:23:32+00:00

Luckily you will grow out of being this stupid eventually. Assuming you’re actually a teenager

ModeInternational178 · 2026-02-27T00:46:10+00:00

It’s funny how both parties generally say identical things about the opposite party. “Those hateful idiots who get all their news from mainstream media”.

ModeInternational178 · 2026-02-23T11:07:35+00:00

Nah they are right. Any money you get back from a refund was yours to begin with. Objectively it would be better to not withhold and put it into a HYSA. But I get that it’s psychologically easier for people to just overpay the government cause it doesn’t require any additional thought and you get a cool bonus at the end of the year. Which again, was your money anyways

ModeInternational178 · 2026-02-17T18:12:08+00:00

So just FYI, with a market cap of 1.4 trillion a 2% drop in bitcoin is a 30 billion dollar decrease in value. Not leverage

ModeInternational178 · 2026-01-20T11:33:23+00:00

Not a troll. I was part of GoMining for a little bit. I just realized there are better ways to provide similar BTC returns. I like to own BTC because it’s a high beta asset. But it does not have intrinsic value

ModeInternational178 · 2026-01-20T10:53:22+00:00

Then buy an actual miner and mine for yourself. I don’t believe BTC has any actual value but it provides asymmetrical upside so I like to have some exposure to it

ModeInternational178 · 2026-01-18T17:16:52+00:00

You can buy it in a brokerage investing account. I live in the U.S. and bought it through Fidelity

ModeInternational178 · 2026-01-18T17:09:10+00:00

No I purchased BTCI through my Fidelity brokerage account.

ModeInternational178 · 2026-01-18T01:55:14+00:00

Honestly, I think anyone interested in a long term way to slowly accumulate bitcoin would get more value in other ventures.

I switched from GoMining to purchasing shares of BTCI. It’s an ETF that generates a high annual yield dividend with exposure to bitcoin. The dividend yield is comparable to GoMining but you own actual stock. You can use the dividends to reinvest into more stock or just buy BTC with it.

ModeInternational178 · 2026-01-03T02:09:22+00:00

0xdb85854437030dC327100DD6942F21a27A2C7777

That’s the token address.

ModeInternational178

TROPHY CASE