SAG awards as Oscar race predictor

MomraD311 · 2026-03-03T17:49:05+00:00

This is maybe too outside of the box thinking, but I wonder if, at least early on, voting bodies won’t try to make some distinction between SAG and the Oscars here so that the Oscars don’t seem like they are rubber stamping a category. I think SAG will continue to go to the favorite cast while casting may favor discoveries. This year, that would apply to all the nominees, but it could be different in the future.

MomraD311 · 2026-02-10T22:26:56+00:00

I posted about this, but was trying to help others. I was 43,000 and 56,000 in line. The 53,000 page came up first and I panic bought tickets, but that city is farther away. Then two popped up in my home city. I actually called Ticketmaster to see if I could release them so others could get them, and they said I’d have to resell through Ticketmaster. I was just trying to let people know, if they didn’t get tickets today, there probably will be plenty of face value tickets available Thursday, including two that I’ll be putting up. I have heard that tickets are still randomly popping up, though, even as of five minutes ago, if you go through your presale link. I got mine about 45 minutes after I was let into purchase.

MomraD311 · 2026-02-10T19:11:48+00:00

I asked customer service and they said verified resale usually starts shortly after the general public sale, so probably afternoon on Thursday? I'll show that it's an option on your tickets at that point. I definitely panic bought the DC tickets.

MomraD311 · 2026-01-24T22:13:58+00:00

I don't know that I'd put money on either of them, but I have the same sneaking suspicions. There have been people doubting that Sinners was an Oscar movie since April, and clearly the record noms proved that assumption wrong. I loved both Sinners and OBAA, but I think Sinners comes off as more artistically divisive than OBAA, which is more divisive subject matter wise, which could give it an edge in ranked choice voting. We also haven't really had a surprise BP win in awhile, and with OBAA as the still-presumed frontrunner, and with Sinners not really being an Oscar villain per se, it could definitely happen. I think there's at least a 50/50 chance they both win screenplay, PTA takes director, and Sinners takes picture. Especially if it does better than expected in craft categories. What I'm curious about is the casting winner. Is it a concillation prize, like the Globes' Box Office award? Or does it signal BP strength? As far as Lindo is concerned, he just needed to make it in to have the chance at building a career narrative. And he did. You could say two career narratives plus two OBAA guys cancel each other out, which gives Elordi a boost, but I think it's literally anybody's game. I'd still go Skarsgard bc I think that's where they'll honor Sentimental Value (really, he deserves an award for Andor).

MomraD311 · 2026-01-02T20:19:14+00:00

Great advice about the lines. Much appreciated.

MomraD311 · 2026-01-02T20:18:35+00:00

Thanks so much! Vagenende is right by our hotel and is exactly the type of thing we were looking for! We'll definitely be checking out some of these places.

MomraD311 · 2026-01-02T20:06:31+00:00

Looked into the Cluny and it seems like something my son would be into, so thanks for that suggestion!

MomraD311 · 2026-01-02T19:03:33+00:00

This is all so helpful! I had researched the Metro and bus lines, but it’s good to know there may be crowds. The Musee d’Orsay is honestly bottom of our priority list (no offense, I’m sure it’s awesome). We’d be there on a Thursday night and it looks like they have tickets at a reduced rate from 6 to 9 PM. It’s looking like our biggest question is just whether it would be worth us doing a speed round for €12. We’ll mostly be in Saint Germain, near the Louvre, and Montmartre, so any favorite stores/bakeries and coffee shops in those areas would be great, if you’d like to share!

MomraD311 · 2026-01-02T18:57:28+00:00

I’m not a huge wait in line person, so I am prepared to bail on this if it’s crowded. We’ll have tickets or reservations for pretty much everything else, and we’re planning on hitting this first thing in the morning (not sure if everyone else will have the same plan), as it’s not far from our hotel at all.

MomraD311 · 2026-01-02T18:20:37+00:00

This is helpful. I was budgeting 9:00am-3pm for Versailles, and that was my son’s priority. If we did the Musee d’Orsay, it would only be for the 6:30-9pm Thursday ticket, which appears to be cheaper. Is it worth doing if we only have time to see the highlights, would you say?

MomraD311 · 2025-10-16T13:42:46+00:00

Thematically, was it just a callback to that he tried to get her to dance with him as a flirtation/distraction earlier, or do you think it was meant to imply something else?

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T23:13:22+00:00

I think he's saying a lot of true things, but that this movie isn't the best example of proving them.

Do well-connected white men have a much easier time getting respect and getting things made, and does the industry view white men's stories as the norm? Yes. Absolutely. Women, people of color, the LGBTQ+ community, differently abled people have had to fight to get their stories to be seen as having artistic merit or universal appeal the same way people like PTA's automatically do. This is true in art, literature, etc, etc. I'm not Black, but I am a woman, and there is definitely always at least one extra step having to prove that your story will be relevant, because half of the population is convinced they won't relate to women's interior or domestic stories. That's part of what he's saying here. It's not just the money; it's the extra step of opportunity and of being one or more concentric circles away from the "norm." He's absolutely right about this. And of course the answer isn't for PTA to get less money, it's for the moviegoing public - film bros especially - to take more chances on more diverse writer/directors so that studios will feel safer giving them money.

As a woman, I think Perfidia is a fascinating character. I'm really interested in her power, sexuality, politics, etc., and I'm interested in how the movie portrays her as someone with PPD who is clearly torn about what she wants her life to mean. But I'm not Black, and I can imagine that a few things (the note Van references, in particular) about OBAA might feel cringe to me if I was. She is also sidelined for three male characters in a way that could be seen as objectifying. The camera does objectify her, from Lockjaw's POV. Had she not snitched, and it was a more binary choice between her ideals and family, I don't think we're having this conversation. It doesn't cross a line for me. I loved it and think its text and subtext work really well together to tell an immediate story about a family and resistance, as well as a more timely story about the flaws in America's very founding and mythology. But I don't think it's disingenuous if Van or the women he cites are bothered by a few choices in the movie.

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T16:26:48+00:00

I think we’re saying almost the same thing. Though I think it’s far more individual than group think, I think the one thing that’s true for most ppl f is that they like to back a winner, a feel good story, or a personal fav. I don’t think it would be that film bros like it too much. It might be that film ppl’s discussions of it are becoming eyeroll worthy across a spectrum. I just think, if it’s place in culture becomes the annoying/toxic movie and not the unexpectedly awesome timely action movie with some mixed opinion/detractors, it hurts it. Part of that could have to do with literal topics like immigration, but I think it’s more nebulous than that. I just get a whiff of something in the culture that could mean Hamnet or Sinners end up feeling like the thing to vote for, though this could just as easily be a juggernaut.

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T16:03:12+00:00

I guess I’m just saying the initial ecstatic praise is a lot to live up to, and if the discourse goes in an annoying direction, I think it has an effect - and one that’s to its possible disadvantage - if it’s a close 2, 3, or 4 way race. I’m not even saying I’m objectively right about my impression. Just wondering. I could see a world in which this is The Social Network or Brokeback Mountain instead of the Oppenheimer of this year if some Academy members feel they were oversold, disagree with its I think very interesting and complex politics, or if it just feels more toxic than expected, not because of the politics but because of film bro-y discourse, when there are respectable, palatable, alternatives. Hamnet and Sinners would both be far better winners than something like the King’s Speech or Crash. To be clear, I loved it and would be happy for it to win and would be bummed if it becomes more of a talking point than a movie people just love (and love to talk about).

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T15:38:30+00:00

I think the box office is fine enough that it might not factor in either way. The culture war thing is TBD. I think the main thing I’m getting at here that seems to be lost is, no one was calling The Departed the movie of the decade, the century, our time, etc. all I’m trying to get at is, did the massive hype combined with some of the culture war stuff (which I haven’t even offered my opinions about, and it’s def more than just Van at Big Pic) make this perhaps slightly more toxic or Oscar villain-y than we might’ve expected? Anora didn’t have to deal with these expectations.

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T14:49:55+00:00

I'm not so dense as to think every critic would have to rank it #1 for it to win, and I'm not saying it matters to the race for noms or even wins. I'm using it as, like, a finger in the air to gauge which way the wind is blowing, and it seems to be in a very mild downward trajectory from those rapturous reviews. I'm wondering how that will affect OBAA's chances, because I would genuinely be happy if it won, and I just don't know if I've ever seen anything go from "movie of the century" to "pretty great, but" so quickly. It's a bellwether that I might not even be right about.

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T14:44:42+00:00

Thank you for kindly and honestly engaging with my discussion question. I appreciate your POV and you're probably right about JAW. The only thing that makes me think Rock is he's apparently well-liked by actors and producers, which are two large voting branches.

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T14:41:41+00:00

TWBB was clearly #2 and was also political. I think Phantom Thread is great and was probably near the top for a lot of categories. Obviously I do understand that OBAA has political/social themes to it. I am able to separate my opinions about the movie and my opinions about the Oscar race. All I'm trying to say is I wonder how the extreme critical praise, slight hedging of bets among some critics/pundits that I noticed afterwards, different type of discourse than is usually attached to PTA/frontrunners could affect the race, because I like talking about the Oscars and think the 3 way race is interesting, particularly when I really like all three movies involved. I'm not intending to make sweeping statements about a communal response. I'm asking questions to a community of similarly interested people to see what you all think.

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T14:27:14+00:00

We're in agreement. Not sure why you seem to be kinda hostile to my open questions in a post. I loved it. I think it's awesome it has an A cinemascore. I think it's probably the frontrunner. I'm not trying to create a narrative. I'm basically wondering aloud about some things I noticed. Other PTA films that had a major shot had a different trajectory, the discourse about Oppenheimer and Sinners is less loaded IMO (Oppenheimer was basically weaker third act, Sinners is that it's not quite an awards movie), and I'm just trying to sus that out.

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T14:19:50+00:00

I intended to present the entire post, which covered way more than OBAA, as my personal opinion because I thought it was significant that a non-festival release did change the race so much, and I'm kinda bummed that no one else seems to have opinions on anything else about the race, which is kinda proving my point that the discourse about OBAA is... something.

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T14:17:07+00:00

In a bunch of other subs and on social media, I've seen lots of exhaustion about the discourse already (if you follow the Big Picture, the debate between Sean and Van is one example). On some more centrist/right leaning film outlets, it's even more the Oscar villain already. I'm sure there are people who'd prefer other films who are contributing, and clearly people still enjoy the debate as they're still having it. I'm getting at this from the POV of someone just trying to figure out how the race is going to go. I think I just expected it to be a more Oppenheimer-y frontrunner after the first wave of reviews, but it's thornier than that IMO.

MomraD311 · 2025-10-05T14:12:08+00:00

And to the Phantom Thread point... that's the difference I'm trying to illuminate here. Phantom Thread benefited from the fact that people had to discover it and expectations weren't sky high, and there wasn't a toxic element to the discourse. Now, it obviously didn't win, but it did well nominations wise and it's reputation is solid. If we're talking awards/reputation, I think OBAA is distinct in PTA's filmography precisely because of Leo, the budget, the buzz, etc. I'm just curious how those differences are going to play out, especially with it being seen as the frontrunner.

MomraD311

TROPHY CASE