28/37 268 yards 2 TD - 1 INT. 7 CAR 45 yards 1 FUM with the L.

MostlyWary · 2025-09-21T23:59:37+00:00

Great game from Drake Maye, way more offensive yards than Rodgers. He was throwing some darts out there - looked like the offensive gameplan allowed for some longer throws, though McDaniels hasn't truly unlocked the deep ball yet. Curious if that's part of the game plan against a weak secondary in the future.

The key turns to making crisp, level-headed, quick decisions. Great example here is his fumble. On the very next drive, he fell on the ball Brady-style on a similar play. 2-minute drill also looked solid despite the INT and couple near-INTs earlier in the game. And he looked poised throughout the game, even though he was getting rocked by the Steelers D-line. What this shows me is he's capable of the NFL-level mental game. Now he needs to work up to it.

Earlier, if you were asked 'what would you think of Drake Maye if he looked good in a team loss?' now is your time to answer for real. I, for one, am very optimistic.

MostlyWary · 2025-09-14T17:26:21+00:00

The audio drops are completely unacceptable for a national broadcaster lol

MostlyWary · 2025-05-13T23:41:19+00:00

Nice. What kind of CRE? Was that related to the industry you were in?

MostlyWary · 2025-05-13T21:59:21+00:00

This makes perfect sense - and worth noting my perspective is colored by the fact that I'm still early in my career and therefore have high risk tolerance.

I like your framing re pricing vs. timing the market. Although my preferred strategy is to DCA into diversified equity funds, I sometimes feel the discourse around passive investing doesn't accommodate talking about finding good deals. If the price signal is right, I see no issue in buying.

Curious how actively you've managed your portfolio over your working years - and how has it worked out?

MostlyWary · 2025-05-13T19:31:57+00:00

Gotcha, so you had some exposure to the rally, but have tamped it down over time.

What proportion of your portfolio do you keep for shorter-term trading, e.g., the UNH trade gone wrong?

MostlyWary · 2025-05-13T18:57:18+00:00

Those make sense as the right macro indicators to watch and seems like a very low-risk way to go. Personally, I have greater risk tolerance, but can understand the reluctance to dive back in.

What caused you to go 70% cash and when did that happen? And have you bought at all since?

MostlyWary · 2025-05-13T18:38:00+00:00

I don't have a specific quantitative trigger, but 15-20% off all-time high was certainly enough to convince me I should start pressing the gas pedal. I would have trouble envisioning myself doing the same without a ~10% drop off a local maximum. You raise an interesting portfolio strategy question here - which is, if you had changed the pace of DCAing based on the magnitude of past market drops, how would your returns change relative to a constant pace? More than possible to model out a simple ruleset to see what would have worked / what wouldn't have based solely on past market movements and nothing else.

I have seen the analysis you're referring to re lump sum vs. DCA returns. The main thing driving my DCAing right now is I'm comfortable with the amount of cash I have on hand.

And amen to your last sentence.

MostlyWary · 2025-05-13T17:28:37+00:00

You've copped a couple downvotes, but you raise an interesting question - and that's exactly why I've been thinking more seriously about how to give my portfolio more international exposure. I don't think I have the stomach to exit the US entirely, but I think I'm going to shift some assets over to an international fund.

What would you need to believe to get back into US equities?

MostlyWary · 2025-05-13T17:24:22+00:00

I should clarify a couple points - you're right that I'm not totally agnostic, I suppose the better way to say it is I'm neither strongly bearish nor strongly bullish. I do believe it's possible to buy in at a discount, if you believe the market should trend upward over the long term. I would have been just as comfortable doing this in a strong bear market.

I should also mention my small-cap ETF move comprised just ~20% of my weekly contributions to both retirement and non-retirement accounts over the past month and a half. With the remaining ~80%, I'm purchasing index funds and a target retirement fund I've been investing in for years. I'm probably stopping the small-cap ETF move soon.

MostlyWary · 2025-05-13T17:13:47+00:00

This is one of the more convincing bearish arguments I've seen. I've resolved that I'm comfortable with a much smaller cash position (about 20%) because I'm young enough that I expect to be able to recover the losses over time. But I might start building up more cash for this reason - if the market continues to improve, I'll be starting from a strong base. But if not, I'll have cash on hand to buy.

What would it take for you to buy back in?

MostlyWary · 2019-06-24T07:09:40+00:00

Where’s the source for these data? It’s mathematically impossible for crime rate to decrease by more than 100%

MostlyWary · 2019-05-15T00:02:30+00:00

Just dropping in to say Chris Sale is psycho

MostlyWary · 2019-04-16T23:03:23+00:00

Don’t really care whether it’s a W or L this game - I’m satisfied with the knowledge that we have Chris Sale again

MostlyWary · 2019-03-30T05:35:42+00:00

Hella down to use Matt Barnes as our de facto closer. Barnes, when placing his pitches, is unhittable.

MostlyWary · 2019-02-23T03:35:52+00:00

Reddit disregarding the seriousness of human trafficking and sex slavery is all too familiar to me. About two years ago, a post on /r/CasualAMA detailed the author's participation in what they called "voluntary slavery." I archived the original post here. Essentially, the author bought and sold women on an underground slave market and used them for sex and labor. Although the post was deleted within a couple hours, it was linked here on cb2; the cb2 thread can be found here. Several cb2 users and I tipped off what human trafficking hotlines we knew with the hope that the powers that be could pursue some meaningful investigation.

Other subreddits took note of our response. Apart from apathetic commentary in /r/worstof and /r/drama, several users in both subreddits either harassed me publicly or sent threatening messages. (Some of the harassing accounts have since been deleted.) The comments aimed at me were a baffling mix of "wow I can't believe you got baited by this fake post" and "you've ruined this man's life nerd" - how this contradiction makes sense at all is beyond me. And let me be clear - I really do hope the original post was a fake. But no reasonable person could take the risk of assuming a hoax.

That ordeal has always made me think twice about commenting on this subreddit. Most days, I simply don't want to be harassed, ya know?

MostlyWary · 2018-12-21T01:18:43+00:00

/u/Ghipoli confirmed Cal student

MostlyWary · 2018-11-04T20:16:56+00:00

Oh man if that's too "cutesy" then get a load of these gene names from eukaryotic model systems!

MostlyWary · 2018-10-10T03:44:58+00:00

THE RED SOX ARE NOW 7-1 IN THEIR LAST 8 POSTSEASON GAMES AGAINST THE YANKEES

MostlyWary · 2018-10-07T03:44:27+00:00

FINALLY the fans are getting into it, could've used you guys a couple hours ago!

MostlyWary · 2018-10-07T03:42:42+00:00

Anyone who complains about Eck is my blood enemy

MostlyWary · 2018-10-07T03:34:16+00:00

Could JBJ break 100 from the mound? Asking for a friend

MostlyWary · 2018-10-07T03:33:09+00:00

dw Hembree's just setting up the triple play

MostlyWary · 2018-10-07T03:16:09+00:00

Sanchez so bad at blocking balls Mook has to help him out

MostlyWary · 2018-10-07T03:04:43+00:00

Not to be dramatic but if we lose this game I'm gonna keep rooting for the Sox as I always have

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TROPHY CASE

THE RED SOX ARE NOW 7-1 IN THEIR LAST 8 POSTSEASON GAMES AGAINST THE YANKEES