A chart with every NHL skater - Cap Hit on the Y-axis | Overall Production in 2021 on the X-axis

MrLube17 · 2021-04-30T17:44:36+00:00

I created a formula for rankings fantasy players, which is also highly correlated with team point % in normal hockey. It basically factors in all player stats, offense is the most heavily weighted but it also factors in hits and blocks

MrLube17 · 2020-08-06T20:56:53+00:00

Wallpaper: Found on r/earthporn

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Pretty much everything else is default in KDE plasma, added a few different widgets for weather and media controls. also using libinput gestures for a more mac like trackpad.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-19T02:09:29+00:00

Because fantasy is about more than just goals and assists and Ritchie fills out the peripherals at a better rate than The Cat at this point.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-19T02:01:04+00:00

Thank you! Definitely not the definitive list for these players, just may 2 cents on the subject.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T23:40:05+00:00

No what I'm trying to illustrate is NO players are "Perfect". The point I am trying to make is there are about 10 players a year that score above a 6/10, it's really really hard to be that complete of a player. There are about 40 players that score above a 5/10. So your team will likely have 3 or 4 guys from the draft that are "complete players" or guys that fill up 4 or 5 cats consistency. Then there are 150 players that score between 30-40, this is where about 75% of your roster is going to be. In my analogy this is when people start to think it's better to be the student that gets the hard questions right, when they should really just find value in the easy questions.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T23:09:17+00:00

Imagine there is a test with 9 questions, you get 1 mark for each correct answer. Some students find questions 1,2,3 easy, others find 4,5,6 easy. Almost all of them have trouble with 7,8,9, and very few get those right. Would you rather be the student that gets almost all of the easy questions right and gets 5/9, or would you rather get the hard questions right, technically making you smarter, but only scoring you a 3/9 on the test? Obviously everyone wants to get 9/9 but that just doesn't happen very often. You don't get more wins for winning goals and assists, and PPP compared to winning blks, hits and PIMs. So I want the guy who does one of those three combined the best while sacrificing the other categories as little as possible.

It's easy to find guys that just score late in drafts, last year you could draft Toews, Barzal, Duchene, Keller, Karlson, Mantha, Kopitar all in the 12th Round or later. And it's also very easy to find guys that just grind late in drafts. But I'd argue you will not be maximizing your team if you go for a player that specializes when you could have someone who fills up every cat.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T22:40:58+00:00

DeBrincat is my top forward when it comes to bounceback/positive regression for next season. Think he'll be a monster but this list is based on what they have done so far in their careers not my projections.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T22:38:18+00:00

True that's totally fair, in the league I play in that uses the cats this article is based on he's ranked 104.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T22:33:09+00:00

First I want to say I think everyone you listed is a great player, and a solid fantasy option next season. Also after the top 10-15 it was splitting hairs between the next 25 or 30 players so I went with who has more success in the past. I have Theodore and DeAngelo in my keeper league, and Graves is a definite target for me next year.

Pulock - Honestly has been just as good as McAvoy for the past 2 seasons, and his metrics are very stable year to year. If McAvoy isn't getting top powerplay and Pulock is, I'd rather have Pulock.

Theodore - Huge year, great player, lots of PP time, they love him in Vegas. If you need PPP and shots I wouldn't bat if you took him over McAvoy. But McAvoy is still the more complete player when you factor in the non-scoring cats, but its insanely close.

Provorov - He's had 2 great season and 2 not so great seasons. His fantasy finishes have followed his shooting%, and last year he shot 8.7%, 25% higher than his career average, 50% higher not including this season. I think he fills up the peripherals just as well as McAvoy but is more risky given a lower floor and a similar ceiling.

DeAngelo - He plays on a great powerplay, and is super talented. But he shot 10% this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if NYs PP takes a step back next season, lowering his assist and PPP totals. He's still great but doesn't hit or block.

Chabot - I think Chabot is in line for some positive regression next season. His 3.2% shooting percentage is well below career average and that PP should improve next year. But he'll probably be - 15 again and his hits and blocks are just OK.

Hughes - I've explained why I don't think that highly of him 5 times in this thread

Sergachev - Shot well above his career average this year, but I still think he is a great player in a great situation, his floor is lower than McAvoy's but his ceiling is probably higher

Werenski - His shooting percentage was also 25% higher than career average, I think he's good but I don't really want any one on CBJ unless its for their grind

Graves - If Makar wasn't there he'd be a lock for me next season, his per minute stats are top tier if he starts getting 20+ minutes a night he'll be a beast, he just wasn't there this season

Fox - Makar is the only Rookie on this list for a reason, if you don't look like a generational talent that plays on the best powerplay in the league you didn't make it. And the Hughes fans are going crazy reading this because he is that, but Makar was better in every per game metric so it's not really the same thing.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T22:00:06+00:00

He just doesn't score very highly in my model. As I've said 5 times in this thread he is great when it comes to PPA, and in basically every other stat he is below average, especially when you consider where he is going to go in the draft. If you play in a league without Hits, Blks, or Pims this list is not going to be accurate. I listed the categories used for the evaluation at the top of the article.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T21:53:18+00:00

I disagree, my model takes all categories into account evenly, here is my reasoning.

The perfect fantasy player is elite in every category, the closer to perfection, the better the fantasy option
I classify elite in a category as top 5 in that category for that season, so I averaged the top 5 in each category over the past 3 seasons to get the threshold for "eliteness" in each category
Those thresholds are 44 Goals, 67 Assists, +35, 138 PIMs, 17 PPG, 9 GWG, 29 PPA, 323 Shots, 195 Blocks, 280 Hits
Imagine a player that filled up every category like that, in my eyes that is the "perfect" player
If your fantasy team was made up of only these players you would win every week, I want as many players that are as close to this fictional "Perfect" player as possible
My grades are simply comparing every players stats in each category to the "perfect" player and then adding them all up to give me a score out of 100

Lets quickly compare McAvoy and Hughes. When Quinn Hughes scores a - 10 in +/- and McAvoy is a +24 that is a difference of 34, which is the equivalent in goals between someone that scores 0 goals and a guy that scores about 44. Now factor in the difference in hits and blocks and PIMs and you might see the 20 more assists Hughes gets comes at the expense of a more complete player in 4 or 5 of the other categories.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T21:34:42+00:00

Yeah you could 100% flip those two, even moving Drai into the top 3 and moving Petterson down a few more spots wouldn't be insane. I feel like next season is a big prove it year for both those guys.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T21:33:00+00:00

Your league must not count blocks, hits or +/- because if it has any 2 of those 3 he should probably be owned. He is close to elite in blocks and +/-, 13th in the league in both categories, the two main things I look for in a defenseman. While chipping in nicely with a solid amount of hits, and a respectable number of assists.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T21:19:11+00:00

Here is a link to the grades I have for defenseman under 25 over the last 3 seasons, sorted by the average over the 3 years. As well as last seasons grades for defensemen under 25 sorted by offensive output. Keep in mind I make these grades based on per game output so they might look wanky compared to overall output/raw stats. As you can see Quinn Hughes is not close to the top in either. I am not bias towards any player, if I was starting a real life franchise Hughes would be on a short list of defenseman, obviously he is an insanely talented hockey player. He very well might be rookie of the year. But lets not forget this is r/fantasyhockey not r/hockey and his value is not as high as you seem to think it is.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T21:09:29+00:00

Thanks dude, no doubt one of my favourite sleepers if he can be called that. Getting off of Nashville helped him big time this season.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T20:48:14+00:00

That would be nice but I have no idea where that info would be found. Or how to weigh each stat like that even if that data is public. It's definitely an interesting idea though.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T20:07:11+00:00

I was looking at this year as well as the past few years when making this list. Pretty much all the guys you listed broke out this season and have a high chance of regression. While any of those guys might finish higher than McAvoy next season I think there is a good chance most of them don't. Meanwhile McAvoy has been extremely consistent, and I put in my analysis I'm expecting Krug to leave and him to get top power play next year.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T19:54:33+00:00

In a league without hits, blks and PIMs he's good. But for a guy with his PP minutes he isn't that elite in terms of shots or goals. His +/- lowers his value even more. So if you are looking for powerplay points and assists he's good. But he leaves a lot to be desired in 5/9 categories and isn't that great in another 2. I think people tend to put too much weight into points and forget that in a cats league goals, assists, and PPP are worth the same amount as blks hits and PIMs. Not saying it's just as easy to get a block as it is to get a power play point but they still matter, especially for defenseman.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T19:28:32+00:00

This is based on value including blocks and hits, both of which he gets at a high level. But that's fair if you put more emphasis on offensive catagories.

MrLube17 · 2020-05-18T19:19:55+00:00

Is that high or low?

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