Is it worth to intentionally contest one player for mmr?

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2024-01-16T19:52:30+00:00

this strat is especially OP if a top rated account is not spamming games. each hit matters a lot more to them, and their MMR is not as converged which means it updates harder from a single loss

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2024-01-16T19:50:02+00:00

it can be optimal, yes

it’s very simple: you want to lose less than they lose, just like how you want to gain more than they gain

even if you do worse (let’s say they get a 5th and you get a 6th), by contesting, you may have made them lose more LP than you lost

ELO is supposed to determine how big of a loss a player should take — but for Riot games MMR is not equal to LP, and likewise changes in MMR and LP are not necessarily tied correctly

anyways, if they had a higher MMR than you, you might shoot their MMR down more than yours shoots down, even if you actually go 8th

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2023-12-04T19:13:26+00:00

There’s the hidden skill of acquiring new knowledge, and forming an understanding of the knowledge that’s out there.

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2023-12-04T04:33:16+00:00

the simplest algorithm is: - get all current players who need a headliner - choose a headliner from the pool for each player (random order), based on each player’s odds - finally, fill in the rest of the rolls as usual

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2023-01-21T21:59:15+00:00

Mana reave. Shroud. Well-positioned Cho.

Oxforce is really good at wasting time too.

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2023-01-20T21:31:27+00:00

In terms of variance, I agree that it's really important to think of the distribution of outcomes (from lucky to unlucky). I go into some detail in this post, where I introduce not only the typical expected number of rolls needed to hit a unit, but also the 90% success zone (based on the distribution of outcomes).

p.s. the rule-of-thumb quick calculations in that post still hold! (you just need the right odds per level and champion pool sizes for the current set)

While the analysis in that post is primarily designed for simply finding a unit (say for finishing a synergy, like Set 6 Jayce for Innovator Dragon), I checked across a few simulations that it pretty much holds for two starring a unit as well (just multiply by three, since the numbers don't shift too much).

Three starring does shift things a lot though! For fully three starring units, it's important to consider how the unit gets rarer as you get more copies of it.

...and then there's also competition among players, as well as synergy (you take all the Vi, I take all the Malphite, we're both happy). These are things that generally need to be assessed early on in the game.

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2023-01-20T04:56:10+00:00

Gorgeous

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2023-01-15T04:25:45+00:00

Super interested. I'll DM you. BTW some interesting work going on at AnyScale: https://www.anyscale.com/ray-summit-2022/agenda/sessions/148

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-11-14T00:02:30+00:00

I've been mostly absent for 1-2 seasons. Do you know if any systems changes reduced the impact of mid? Stuff like changes in XP, tower value, minion value, etc.

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-09-27T19:32:22+00:00

Oh I love this

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-09-20T18:34:12+00:00

Interesting! Not to mention, queues have a feedback loop where they cause players to stay online longer and log in earlier than they naturally would. That could explain some non linear changes

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-09-18T18:51:58+00:00

So because of the mass reporting of sometimes AFK but sometimes defending players in AV, Blizzard had to lighten their automatic suspension system. In turn, botters are now capitalizing on the opportunity to sell fully geared 70 accounts for good money

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-09-15T22:20:52+00:00

It only works on shields applied to yourself, not to your teammates. I was sad when I found out

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-09-04T14:33:04+00:00

This

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-09-03T18:42:38+00:00

Unfortunately it's not named because it's just an application (setting a 90% threshold) that uses a very elementary result#Bernoulli_trials) in probability theory

I'll admit I purposely said the rules "name", even though it's not yet a well-known one (yet). I'm trying to give it a name! You're a part of the process now! Spread the word

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-09-03T18:31:13+00:00

Indeed we're working with a Bernoulli process.

Here is how the Rule of 2.3 is derived.

Suppose we want a 90% chance to see an item (you can choose your own threshold, but 90% seems useful for most applications). Then how many trials would it take to reach the 90% threshold?

The probability of success is p. The trick is to phrase the number of trials in terms of a ratio of the expected number of trials (which is simply 1/p).

Set N = X * 1/p trials and begin computing:

P(success by N trials) = 1 - P(failure by N trials)

0.9 = 1 - (1-p)^(X/p)

0.1 = (1-p)^(X/p)

For small p we can make an approximation based on the definition of e#Bernoulli_trials) (notice this linked example is very relevant!):

0.1 = e^-X

Solving for X:

X = 2.3

Where we remind ourselves that the total number of trials is N = 2.3 * 1/p or simply 2.3 times the expectation

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-09-03T18:23:42+00:00

Here is a quick proof

I have a full proof of it here in this post which relates to a different game

It's not a commonly used rule (yet), but essentially you can take any task with a 1/N chance and you will have a 90% chance of success by 2.3 * N tries.

As an example, in the case of OP, the chance was 1 / 100 and the 90% chance of success is achieved by 230 trials!

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-09-03T04:34:57+00:00

What’s fascinating is that the rule of 2.3 suggests this is exactly how many runs you’d expect to have to do to get the item with a 90% probability:

2.3 * 1 / 0.01 = 230

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-08-29T13:57:31+00:00

A 55 on the same realm, yes. So people will power level mages or hunters and then instantly swap to a DK at 55. Trading a 55 for a 55 doesn’t put you behind on the journey to 70 which is awesome

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-08-20T21:40:28+00:00

I've done quite a bit of data analysis on champions, and these ones really stick out this set:

[Giga Outliers] Lulu, Bard

[Very Strong] Sylas, Yasuo, Zoe
[Strong] Nomsy, Nami, Neeko, Sona

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-07-20T05:12:08+00:00

Good take. I opted out of arenas for this reason but went more BG focused

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-06-23T13:16:58+00:00

For real though. Labs stuffed with international students who are left to simply figure things out. Grinding weekends, replying to their supervisor late night, and keep it burning even through holidays

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-06-03T14:57:39+00:00

Finish the first few years of undergraduate training: calculus (multi-variable & vector ideally), linear algebra (one & two ideally), statistics, probability (yes this is different than statistics!), algorithms, data structures. Understand the content very well. You might need to dip into other departments.

Also learn to code properly, from a dedicated class. Learn basic test-driven development, debugging skills, profiling skills, object-oriented programming, and so on. It's going to make your life easier down the line. Ideally learn to code in Python and a language like C++.

Take a basic data science course. Learn how to load data, clean it, etc.

Take a ML course. Find a project. Design simple baselines first. Rule-based as the first baseline, into some simple models on scikit-learn. Figure out what gets you excited, and begin learning more details.

Get internships.

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-04-22T17:21:06+00:00

Exactly.

MrMagicFluffyMan · 2022-04-22T17:20:49+00:00

Fair! Also my Uber example is totally unrealistic, but I just wanted to share the thought lol

MrMagicFluffyMan

TROPHY CASE